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Florida as a whole enacted mask recommendations in late June. Miami Dade county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 2nd: https://www.miamidade.gov/global/

Florida as a whole enacted mask recommendations in late June. Miami Dade county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 2nd: https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/emergency-orders/emergency-order-20-20-amendment-1.page https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/eme... Palm Beach county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 25th: https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf Hillsborough county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 22nd (if I'm reading it right): https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/library/hillsborough/media-center/documents/covid-19/epg-order-for-face-coverings.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hills... Broward county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 8th: https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder20-21.pdf https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder... Orange county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 20th: https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-Safety/docs/coronavirus/2020-23%20EEO.pdf https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-S... Pinellas county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 24th: https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Adopted-ORD-20-14.pdf https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/0... In just this list, we're up to mask mandates that cover counties that account for 10 million people, 47% of Florida's population, and accounting for the densest population centers. A number of additional counties also enacted mask mandates, but it got a bit tedious listing them all out. In other words, in the June-July period, mask mandates were enacted for a majority of the population of Florida. In another comment, I critiqued this piece as being a shallow analysis. Your comment here is an example of that.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Sweden enacted no mask laws. They have had around 7 deaths in the past week. In one study showed that mask laws decreased infections by around 2% after 21 days. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818 https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.0... So there's a good chance that masks don't account for the massive decrease in infections you're seeing in Florida. I think time will tell if you're correct or OP is correct. If mask laws are lifted, and infection rate still continues to decrease, that means masks are ineffective and OP is correct. If mask laws are lifted and infection rates increase again that means you are correct as masks did have an effect.
- tghw 6y ago
  In other places, mask mandates were correlated with a 46% drop in daily new cases. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/08/12/coronavirus-cases-drop-46-in-parts-of-s-carolina-with-mask-mandates-compared-to-areas-without/#6f44629a7123 https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/08/12/coro... And even if mask laws are lifted and infection rates continue going down, it does not show that masks are ineffective nor that the OP was correct. After a mask mandate, some people will continue wearing masks and social distancing. As with immunity, the efficacy is in the numbers, with a critical mass necessary to protect the "herd".
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    So this is a good point. I was just talking with a colleague about this. Some of the herd immunity models take factors like how mobile people are into account. It seems like masks could be a factor in the models of herd immunity. This might be a semantic argument. If population characteristics such as age are part of herd immunity (which is a moving target depending on population), then mask wearing could be considered a population characteristic and included in the model. This would net "drop" herd immunity levels.
    - tghw 6y ago
      The distinction comes down to factors that change (behaviors, mandates, regulations, etc.) and those that don't (age, gender, etc.). Saying we've reached herd immunity given behavioral changes is largely meaningless, as most people do not want to continue these behavioral changes indefinitely. One of the biggest changes that you failed to acknowledge is that people are not in contact with nearly as many people in their day to day life as they were before. Working from home, kids not in school, limited social interactions, etc. It's not herd immunity if a return to previous behaviors negates the immunity.
      - gloriosoc 6y ago
        Behavior is a variable that can and should be included in a herd immunity model. The percent immunity needed to achieve Herd immunity will change with behavior. That doesn't negate that it's happening. Louisiana and Florida are pretty much open and seeing a drop in cases. Bars aren't open indoors- but I think we can live with that for a little while?
gloriosoc 6y ago
I also took a roadtrip across the northeast a month ago so I saw a lot of how careful people were being. Ocean City, NJ was packed and almost no one was wearing masks. The upper east side was packed in NYC. I got a chicken sandwich at an indoor take out place where the guy serving me had one glove on and gave me the sandwich with the hand without the glove. Central park was full of people not wearing masks. Fireworks and protests all night. The argument that people are taking this seriously is just not true in NY and NJ. I can't imagine Florida is better than that.
gloriosoc 6y ago
I agree that i haven't quantified how careful people are being though. There has to be a way to do this. I know there was some drone plan to see how many masks were being worn in parts of the country. It might be worth getting some numbers for this.

nickthemagicman 6y ago

Sweden enacted no mask laws. They have had around 7 deaths in the past week. In one study showed that mask laws decreased infections by around 2% after 21 days. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818 https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.0... So there's a good chance that masks don't account for the massive decrease in infections you're seeing in Florida. I think time will tell if you're correct or OP is correct. If mask laws are lifted, and infection rate still continues to decrease, that means masks are ineffective and OP is correct. If mask laws are lifted and infection rates increase again that means you are correct as masks did have an effect.

tghw 6y ago
In other places, mask mandates were correlated with a 46% drop in daily new cases. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/08/12/coronavirus-cases-drop-46-in-parts-of-s-carolina-with-mask-mandates-compared-to-areas-without/#6f44629a7123 https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/08/12/coro... And even if mask laws are lifted and infection rates continue going down, it does not show that masks are ineffective nor that the OP was correct. After a mask mandate, some people will continue wearing masks and social distancing. As with immunity, the efficacy is in the numbers, with a critical mass necessary to protect the "herd".
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  So this is a good point. I was just talking with a colleague about this. Some of the herd immunity models take factors like how mobile people are into account. It seems like masks could be a factor in the models of herd immunity. This might be a semantic argument. If population characteristics such as age are part of herd immunity (which is a moving target depending on population), then mask wearing could be considered a population characteristic and included in the model. This would net "drop" herd immunity levels.
  - tghw 6y ago
    The distinction comes down to factors that change (behaviors, mandates, regulations, etc.) and those that don't (age, gender, etc.). Saying we've reached herd immunity given behavioral changes is largely meaningless, as most people do not want to continue these behavioral changes indefinitely. One of the biggest changes that you failed to acknowledge is that people are not in contact with nearly as many people in their day to day life as they were before. Working from home, kids not in school, limited social interactions, etc. It's not herd immunity if a return to previous behaviors negates the immunity.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Behavior is a variable that can and should be included in a herd immunity model. The percent immunity needed to achieve Herd immunity will change with behavior. That doesn't negate that it's happening. Louisiana and Florida are pretty much open and seeing a drop in cases. Bars aren't open indoors- but I think we can live with that for a little while?

gloriosoc 6y ago

I also took a roadtrip across the northeast a month ago so I saw a lot of how careful people were being. Ocean City, NJ was packed and almost no one was wearing masks. The upper east side was packed in NYC. I got a chicken sandwich at an indoor take out place where the guy serving me had one glove on and gave me the sandwich with the hand without the glove. Central park was full of people not wearing masks. Fireworks and protests all night. The argument that people are taking this seriously is just not true in NY and NJ. I can't imagine Florida is better than that.

gloriosoc 6y ago

I agree that i haven't quantified how careful people are being though. There has to be a way to do this. I know there was some drone plan to see how many masks were being worn in parts of the country. It might be worth getting some numbers for this.