3 ms·
When herd immunity is reached new cases don't hum along at a lower but steady rate, as they are in New York State. Herd immunity means that infected individual
by not2b 6y ago
When herd immunity is reached new cases don't hum along at a lower but steady rate, as they are in New York State. Herd immunity means that infected individuals can't find enough non-infected people to infect, R0 is well below 1, meaning that cases exponentially drop to zero. Check out the chart for New York's new cases, it isn't happening.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
- gloriosoc 6y agoHerd immunity is not in reality a single cutoff, it's a spectrum. So there is some point- looking like ~30% where R<1 and cases dip. But the > the %, the more immunity.
- tonyedgecombe 6y agoTechnically it's the threshold where R drops below one. You might expect transmission to continue for some time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Overshoot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Overshoot
- gloriosoc 6y agoSure. That is the technical definition. My point is that the rate at which cases will drop is proportional to the percent of the population that is immune. It's not a binary.
- gloriosoc 6y agoAlso, States are not uniformly immune. NYC is more immune than the rest of the state so some of the continued daily new cases are in upstate new york and other areas. We need to look at a county level to accurately parse.