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It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine. Look to the 1970s and Swing Flu to see an example of a failed vaccine. It is absolutely insane th

It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine. Look to the 1970s and Swing Flu to see an example of a failed vaccine. It is absolutely insane that anyone is seriously considering we can make a safe vaccine for this in less than a year. Pharmaceutical companies have never made a successful vaccines for coronaviruses before. I've heard the argument, "Well we have more people working on it." If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month. There is no way, no matter how much money you throw at it, to safely do 5~10 years worth of testing in less than a year.

achenatx 6y ago
The SARS vaccine was likely successful. SARS died out and so the vaccine was never fully challenged in a pandemic. But as far as I know antibodies lasted a long time.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  No they didn't. SARS1 and MERS vaccines had a ton of problems, such as Imuenopathic responses and Immune Enhancement syndrome. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218
HPsquared 6y ago
Indeed, you'd think in HN of all places, everyone should be familiar with the concept of the "mythical man month".
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  You just replied to a strawman argument made by someone you seem to agree with. Why?
mandeepj 6y ago
> If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month Absurd argument. You can't parallelize the birth of a baby but you can do that for testing a vaccine.
- WD-42 6y ago
  How? The whole point of phase 3 clinical trials is long term observation. Have you figured out how to parallelize the passing of time so that it goes by quicker?
- refurb 6y ago
  What? You'd just run your phase 1 (safety) in parallel with phase 2/3 (efficacy)? So basically dose tens of thousands of people before you even know it's safe?
rootusrootus 6y ago
> I've heard the argument That was a beautiful strawman, and even one of the replies your comment walked right into it. There aren't many human coronaviruses circulating to begin with. And they're not dangerous, aside from SARS-CoV-2. Of course there aren't any vaccines for them. Got pretty close on SARS & MERS before they fizzled on their own. > It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine How long do you think the leading SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been in development? Years. It's not like they were dreamed up since February.

achenatx 6y ago

The SARS vaccine was likely successful. SARS died out and so the vaccine was never fully challenged in a pandemic. But as far as I know antibodies lasted a long time.

djsumdog 6y ago
No they didn't. SARS1 and MERS vaccines had a ton of problems, such as Imuenopathic responses and Immune Enhancement syndrome. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218

HPsquared 6y ago

Indeed, you'd think in HN of all places, everyone should be familiar with the concept of the "mythical man month".

rootusrootus 6y ago
You just replied to a strawman argument made by someone you seem to agree with. Why?

mandeepj 6y ago

> If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month Absurd argument. You can't parallelize the birth of a baby but you can do that for testing a vaccine.

WD-42 6y ago
How? The whole point of phase 3 clinical trials is long term observation. Have you figured out how to parallelize the passing of time so that it goes by quicker?
refurb 6y ago
What? You'd just run your phase 1 (safety) in parallel with phase 2/3 (efficacy)? So basically dose tens of thousands of people before you even know it's safe?

rootusrootus 6y ago

> I've heard the argument That was a beautiful strawman, and even one of the replies your comment walked right into it. There aren't many human coronaviruses circulating to begin with. And they're not dangerous, aside from SARS-CoV-2. Of course there aren't any vaccines for them. Got pretty close on SARS & MERS before they fizzled on their own. > It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine How long do you think the leading SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been in development? Years. It's not like they were dreamed up since February.