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The question I've never found a reasonably answer for is this: Whats the exit strategy? What has to happen for this to end? For what I've read there's a good

The question I've never found a reasonably answer for is this: Whats the exit strategy? What has to happen for this to end? For what I've read there's a good chance this virus will stay with us for the long term, just like the flu. Waiting for the vaccine is kind of like hoping for a miracle, as it might not even work. So when will all this madness end?

Spearchucker 6y ago
Right now there is no exist strategy. There are possibilities though. Assuming a vaccine doesn't appear, then we're left with herd immunity through community infection. There are problems with that though, because it's not yet clear whether infection with the COVID-19 virus even makes a person immune to future infection. Amidst all the uncertianty a vaccine is our best hope. Personally I'm assuming this will be with us in some shape or form for many years.
- randomchars 6y ago
  > it's not yet clear whether infection with the COVID-19 virus even makes a person immune to future infection. If you don't become immune after getting the virus, how would you become so after vaccination? My understanding is that vaccines have a weaker version or a portion of the virus inside them, and your body needs to make antibodies. But if that doesn't happen?
  - Spearchucker 6y ago
    Exactly.
lkbm 6y ago
I don't think vaccines are a miracle. They're not certain, but that doesn't make them miracles. The exit strategy should be to enough of a lock-down to get rates very low. This would likely have to be combined with quick-turnaround testing and contact tracing. The US largely failed with this. Other countries show what an exit strategy could have looked like. I'm not sure if it's still viable, but maybe. This is what I wanted a lock-down to bring us, and what maybe still could: * Access to testing: This has improved a lot. In March and April, I knew people with symptoms who couldn't get tested. Last month, my partner found it easy to get tested. * Quick-turn-around with testing: This still sucks. My partner's test in July was easy to get, but the earliest appointment was five days out and it was another five to get the results. This isn't good enough. * Contact tracing: We still don't have this, at least in most places. I would love to install a contact tracing app on my phone, but there isn't one. Seems they're regional, and Texas/Austin hasn't bothered? * A reduction in growth-rates due to social distancing: We got this! Daily growth rate dropped from 1.3+ in mid-March to 1.06-1.08 in mid-April. (I haven't looked recently, but I don't think this has lasted. Still, we were on track to hit 100k deaths by mid-April without this effect.) * New information about how to prevent it: We got some important new information! Turns out surfaces aren't a big deal, and masks are. This is the opposite of what we were told early on, and knowing to wear masks (and more recently, not to use gaiters as masks) is a Big Deal. * Improved treatments: Only thing I've seen is the "proning helps" thing a few months back. * Vaccines: We've made a lot of progress. More than I think experts expected by now. So, yeah, we currently seem to have no real exit strategy other than waiting for a vaccine, or for herd immunity. That doesn't mean it's rational to just exit without a strategy. For now, I'm just going to stay mostly locked down until the vaccine happens or our government decides to step it up and do enough of the things listed above to get the spread under control. Not everyone can do this -- as another commenter mentioned, things that aren't urgent the first week will become so after a month, or six months, and these things are different for different people. But as much as I liked going to the gym, I'm going to continue to forgo that.
- randomchars 6y ago
  > The exit strategy should be to enough of a lock-down to get rates very low But if you get the infection rates very low, and reopen, the infection rates will go up, unless something fundamental has changed.
  - lkbm 6y ago
    The first fundamentally different thing should be the presence good testing and contact tracing. With high rates, I don't think that's a viable strategy, but if cases are few enough, it should work. Different countries have done different things, but my understanding is that South Korea avoided a lock down for the most part by implementing this before cases were widespread. They occasionally add some temporary restrictions, but I think "sometimes we have to add some restrictions until there's a vaccine" is a livable long-term situation. What we're seeing in the US is that for a lot of people, our current situation isn't.

Spearchucker 6y ago

Right now there is no exist strategy. There are possibilities though. Assuming a vaccine doesn't appear, then we're left with herd immunity through community infection. There are problems with that though, because it's not yet clear whether infection with the COVID-19 virus even makes a person immune to future infection. Amidst all the uncertianty a vaccine is our best hope. Personally I'm assuming this will be with us in some shape or form for many years.

randomchars 6y ago
> it's not yet clear whether infection with the COVID-19 virus even makes a person immune to future infection. If you don't become immune after getting the virus, how would you become so after vaccination? My understanding is that vaccines have a weaker version or a portion of the virus inside them, and your body needs to make antibodies. But if that doesn't happen?
- Spearchucker 6y ago
  Exactly.

lkbm 6y ago

I don't think vaccines are a miracle. They're not certain, but that doesn't make them miracles. The exit strategy should be to enough of a lock-down to get rates very low. This would likely have to be combined with quick-turnaround testing and contact tracing. The US largely failed with this. Other countries show what an exit strategy could have looked like. I'm not sure if it's still viable, but maybe. This is what I wanted a lock-down to bring us, and what maybe still could: * Access to testing: This has improved a lot. In March and April, I knew people with symptoms who couldn't get tested. Last month, my partner found it easy to get tested. * Quick-turn-around with testing: This still sucks. My partner's test in July was easy to get, but the earliest appointment was five days out and it was another five to get the results. This isn't good enough. * Contact tracing: We still don't have this, at least in most places. I would love to install a contact tracing app on my phone, but there isn't one. Seems they're regional, and Texas/Austin hasn't bothered? * A reduction in growth-rates due to social distancing: We got this! Daily growth rate dropped from 1.3+ in mid-March to 1.06-1.08 in mid-April. (I haven't looked recently, but I don't think this has lasted. Still, we were on track to hit 100k deaths by mid-April without this effect.) * New information about how to prevent it: We got some important new information! Turns out surfaces aren't a big deal, and masks are. This is the opposite of what we were told early on, and knowing to wear masks (and more recently, not to use gaiters as masks) is a Big Deal. * Improved treatments: Only thing I've seen is the "proning helps" thing a few months back. * Vaccines: We've made a lot of progress. More than I think experts expected by now. So, yeah, we currently seem to have no real exit strategy other than waiting for a vaccine, or for herd immunity. That doesn't mean it's rational to just exit without a strategy. For now, I'm just going to stay mostly locked down until the vaccine happens or our government decides to step it up and do enough of the things listed above to get the spread under control. Not everyone can do this -- as another commenter mentioned, things that aren't urgent the first week will become so after a month, or six months, and these things are different for different people. But as much as I liked going to the gym, I'm going to continue to forgo that.

randomchars 6y ago
> The exit strategy should be to enough of a lock-down to get rates very low But if you get the infection rates very low, and reopen, the infection rates will go up, unless something fundamental has changed.
- lkbm 6y ago
  The first fundamentally different thing should be the presence good testing and contact tracing. With high rates, I don't think that's a viable strategy, but if cases are few enough, it should work. Different countries have done different things, but my understanding is that South Korea avoided a lock down for the most part by implementing this before cases were widespread. They occasionally add some temporary restrictions, but I think "sometimes we have to add some restrictions until there's a vaccine" is a livable long-term situation. What we're seeing in the US is that for a lot of people, our current situation isn't.