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It is basically impossible to produce real empirical evidence in economics. You can look at data/correlations, and try to reason about cause and effect. But rea
by fragsworth 6y ago
It is basically impossible to produce real empirical evidence in economics. You can look at data/correlations, and try to reason about cause and effect. But real empirical evidence requires you use the scientific method to test hypotheses (ideally done in a double-blind way), which is impossible for economists to do even if we had a national desire to do it, because the test itself would impact reality for its participants too much. It's similar to the "observer effect" in physics, but on a massive scale.
At best, I think you can create mathematical simulations built on certain assumptions about reality. Those simulations depend on how well the assumptions model reality, and very easy to miss an important detail.
- ipnon 6y agoAI researchers are important for this reason. Super intelligence, even if limited to simulations, can find results outside of the mainstream that are more optimal than the economic convention.[1] [1] https://blog.einstein.ai/the-ai-economist/ https://blog.einstein.ai/the-ai-economist/