By my rough calculations, for a 35M, going to the gym during Covid for an hour a day, for 160 straight days (so 6.67 days of gym time), can be expected to cut o

By my rough calculations, for a 35M, going to the gym during Covid for an hour a day, for 160 straight days (so 6.67 days of gym time), can be expected to cut one's life expectancy by about 10 days. Odds of dying this year: 0.002138 [1]. Odds of dying this year if they get Covid: 0.00271 (~n*1.3) [2] Odds of contracting Covid over 160 days if going to gym: 60% Odds of contracting Covid if not going to Gym: 43% (assuming 10 people at the gym each time, 1 hour workout durations, odds of someone at Gym having it in any one session at .025%, and odds of catching it 20% at gym). Now what about the negative second order affects of spreading it to others? I did not model those, but I think at this point there could be a compelling case that not catching it now might be net harmful to the folks at high risk, since they would need to remain in lockdown if there remains a large number of people around who are not immune. [1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v...