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In the short term, sure. But we have a more skilled, more educated population with more knowledge and better technology than ever before. We have challenges ahe

In the short term, sure. But we have a more skilled, more educated population with more knowledge and better technology than ever before. We have challenges ahead of many sorts, but in terms of economics we’re pretty well equipped globally. You could argue the US is poorly equipped for manufacturing but that’s only one part of the economy.

fallingfrog 6y ago
Sorry but this is not the state of things if you are under 50 years old. If you are under 50, you are probably better educated but have much less wealth than your parents did at the same age. Your health suffers from years of having no health care. Your teeth are bad. Climate change is going to change your life imminently, and nobody in a position to do something about it cares. You are putting off having kids, or choosing not to. You’ve seen three economic crises in your lifetime and expect more. You’re not so much hoping for things to get better as much as you’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. There is just little reason to be optimistic right now.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  I don't know why this comment is downvoted when the income/wealth data supports it. So much of the US economic engine after WW2 up to 2000 was driven by the fact that people were having lots of kids, and the taxpayers back then were borrowing from future taxpayers. That works if you continue to have lots of kids, but now that that has slowed down, plus the increase in labor supply via women in workforce, and outsourcing to other up and coming countries, plus decrease in demand of labor due to automation, makes for a bleak future outlook for many (as opposed to a growth outlook in the decades after WW2). This is ignoring climate change and its effects. Which can only be remediated with reduced consumption. Which would also cause a reduction in demand for labor.
  - fallingfrog 6y ago
    Thank you, I don’t take it personally, you have to expect some flak when you tell people things they don’t want to hear. I think I’ll go back and edit where I said there was no reason to be optimistic about anything, because that’s not exactly true, and people on HN are very sensitive to hyperbole. If you are going to say something unpopular you have to be very careful to be accurate.
- grumple 6y ago
  I mean, I guess you’re right. I’m the counterexample (grew up poor, have more than the zero of my one parent and my outlook looks good) but it took some time to get here. My college friends (all from wealthy families) are all well-off, but my friends from home are still poor and have poor economic prospects. But some of that is self-imposed because they haven’t put serious effort into economic pursuits. I am quite tired of economic crashes, but I’ve failed to convince enough others to vote and advocate for changes. Those who do care about change are focused on matters other than economics, which I believe to be a mistake.
- refurb 6y ago
  How so? Looking at this Pew data[1] on median household income in 2017 dollars, which appears pretty comprehensive, if you have a college degree, millennials are doing slightly worse than Gen X, but better than all generations before that looking at the same age range. Even those with "some college" millennials are slightly worse off, but within 5%. It's those with only a high school degree that have seen a significant hit. [1]https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/psdt_02-14-19_generations-00-04/ https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-yo...
- wyclif 6y ago
  Your teeth are bad Unless you're an average citizen of the USA. I swear, I've never seen so many gleaming white and healthy sets of choppers as I have in the USA (particularly compared to, say the UK or Eastern Europe)
  - fallingfrog 6y ago
    I think this speaks mostly to the kinds of people you have interacted with in the USA. White teeth are very much a status symbol since you have to be at least upper middle class to have them, so people go out of their way to have teeth whitening procedures done as sign of high social status. But if you went on a tour through an amazon packing plant you’d see a lot of people with missing or crooked or yellow teeth. Our working class is almost invisible; if you’re well off you might not interact with them much at all, but they exist.
baconandeggs 6y ago
Sadly education is not historically a factor, as highly educated people are among the first to flee a doomed economy while government 'economists' keep assuring everything will be fine.
- m0zg 6y ago
  "Flee" _where_ this time? All economies are fucked, if not now then a month from now when it gets colder and all of this starts anew where they managed to subdue the first wave. I think these insane valuations are just pricing in the upcoming global wave of inflation at this point. FWIW, I'm betting on it. I'm taking on a ton of debt by buying another house.
  - grumple 6y ago
    How much inflation could we have? The only people getting more money right now are the super-rich and the most poor. Lots of middle class / working class can’t work or earn money and those are the people that drive costs of anything we care about.
    - m0zg 6y ago
      > How much inflation could we have? Very close to unlimited amount if it gets out of control. See e.g. Venezuela, Zimbabwe, or Russia in early 90s, among other countries. > can’t work or earn money They will be able to soon if they still can't. You can't keep the economy shut down forever. So it'll be shut down selectively until Nov 3 and opened completely shortly thereafter. /s On a more serious note, having lived through hyperinflation myself, people who can work will have their salaries adjusted upward enough to keep them working (and therefore putting some semblance of food on the table), but not enough to keep up with inflation. At least that's how it worked in Russia in the 90s. In Russia, though, the situation was relieved somewhat by the availability of the almighty dollar. You could temporarily protect your rubles from hyperinflation by buying dollars, and then selling them for rubles when you need money. With dollar (and really, all currencies) collapsing, I'm not sure what people are going to do, worldwide. Seems to me that a global inflationary spiral could de-facto reduce everyone's debt obligations to each other. So whoever is owed debts of any kind would take a massive haircut. In the 90s that was the Russian Government. The beneficiaries were people now known as "oligarchs". They borrowed unimaginable amounts of money (with kickbacks to government officials of course), bought up the Soviet factories, mines, and oil production that didn't yet collapse, and then paid back with hyperinflated money, fractions of a kopeck on the ruble.

fallingfrog 6y ago

Sorry but this is not the state of things if you are under 50 years old. If you are under 50, you are probably better educated but have much less wealth than your parents did at the same age. Your health suffers from years of having no health care. Your teeth are bad. Climate change is going to change your life imminently, and nobody in a position to do something about it cares. You are putting off having kids, or choosing not to. You’ve seen three economic crises in your lifetime and expect more. You’re not so much hoping for things to get better as much as you’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. There is just little reason to be optimistic right now.

lotsofpulp 6y ago
I don't know why this comment is downvoted when the income/wealth data supports it. So much of the US economic engine after WW2 up to 2000 was driven by the fact that people were having lots of kids, and the taxpayers back then were borrowing from future taxpayers. That works if you continue to have lots of kids, but now that that has slowed down, plus the increase in labor supply via women in workforce, and outsourcing to other up and coming countries, plus decrease in demand of labor due to automation, makes for a bleak future outlook for many (as opposed to a growth outlook in the decades after WW2). This is ignoring climate change and its effects. Which can only be remediated with reduced consumption. Which would also cause a reduction in demand for labor.
- fallingfrog 6y ago
  Thank you, I don’t take it personally, you have to expect some flak when you tell people things they don’t want to hear. I think I’ll go back and edit where I said there was no reason to be optimistic about anything, because that’s not exactly true, and people on HN are very sensitive to hyperbole. If you are going to say something unpopular you have to be very careful to be accurate.
grumple 6y ago
I mean, I guess you’re right. I’m the counterexample (grew up poor, have more than the zero of my one parent and my outlook looks good) but it took some time to get here. My college friends (all from wealthy families) are all well-off, but my friends from home are still poor and have poor economic prospects. But some of that is self-imposed because they haven’t put serious effort into economic pursuits. I am quite tired of economic crashes, but I’ve failed to convince enough others to vote and advocate for changes. Those who do care about change are focused on matters other than economics, which I believe to be a mistake.
refurb 6y ago
How so? Looking at this Pew data[1] on median household income in 2017 dollars, which appears pretty comprehensive, if you have a college degree, millennials are doing slightly worse than Gen X, but better than all generations before that looking at the same age range. Even those with "some college" millennials are slightly worse off, but within 5%. It's those with only a high school degree that have seen a significant hit. [1]https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/psdt_02-14-19_generations-00-04/ https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-yo...
wyclif 6y ago
Your teeth are bad Unless you're an average citizen of the USA. I swear, I've never seen so many gleaming white and healthy sets of choppers as I have in the USA (particularly compared to, say the UK or Eastern Europe)
- fallingfrog 6y ago
  I think this speaks mostly to the kinds of people you have interacted with in the USA. White teeth are very much a status symbol since you have to be at least upper middle class to have them, so people go out of their way to have teeth whitening procedures done as sign of high social status. But if you went on a tour through an amazon packing plant you’d see a lot of people with missing or crooked or yellow teeth. Our working class is almost invisible; if you’re well off you might not interact with them much at all, but they exist.

baconandeggs 6y ago

Sadly education is not historically a factor, as highly educated people are among the first to flee a doomed economy while government 'economists' keep assuring everything will be fine.

m0zg 6y ago
"Flee" _where_ this time? All economies are fucked, if not now then a month from now when it gets colder and all of this starts anew where they managed to subdue the first wave. I think these insane valuations are just pricing in the upcoming global wave of inflation at this point. FWIW, I'm betting on it. I'm taking on a ton of debt by buying another house.
- grumple 6y ago
  How much inflation could we have? The only people getting more money right now are the super-rich and the most poor. Lots of middle class / working class can’t work or earn money and those are the people that drive costs of anything we care about.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    > How much inflation could we have? Very close to unlimited amount if it gets out of control. See e.g. Venezuela, Zimbabwe, or Russia in early 90s, among other countries. > can’t work or earn money They will be able to soon if they still can't. You can't keep the economy shut down forever. So it'll be shut down selectively until Nov 3 and opened completely shortly thereafter. /s On a more serious note, having lived through hyperinflation myself, people who can work will have their salaries adjusted upward enough to keep them working (and therefore putting some semblance of food on the table), but not enough to keep up with inflation. At least that's how it worked in Russia in the 90s. In Russia, though, the situation was relieved somewhat by the availability of the almighty dollar. You could temporarily protect your rubles from hyperinflation by buying dollars, and then selling them for rubles when you need money. With dollar (and really, all currencies) collapsing, I'm not sure what people are going to do, worldwide. Seems to me that a global inflationary spiral could de-facto reduce everyone's debt obligations to each other. So whoever is owed debts of any kind would take a massive haircut. In the 90s that was the Russian Government. The beneficiaries were people now known as "oligarchs". They borrowed unimaginable amounts of money (with kickbacks to government officials of course), bought up the Soviet factories, mines, and oil production that didn't yet collapse, and then paid back with hyperinflated money, fractions of a kopeck on the ruble.