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The bull case is that by mid-1Q we have a vaccine and the crisis is over. Government fiscal and monetary keeps the economy on life support until that happens.

The bull case is that by mid-1Q we have a vaccine and the crisis is over. Government fiscal and monetary keeps the economy on life support until that happens. If you value a business bottom up and you think 2021/2022 sort of revert back to 2019 then by now in 2020 you are basing your valuations on those numbers and decreasing the equity value where necessary for businesses that took on debt to get through 2020. The Fed has said it will keep rates low for longer and overshoot 2% which is an average target not a ceiling. If your money has to go somewhere (and it does) then fixed income duration at paltry yields looks like a bad bet if we get a tick up in inflation. In an inflationary environment stocks aren't great but they will preserve purchasing power better than bonds. Sure you can play with commodities and bitcoins but are you as say a middle-aged saver with a family going to put your entire liquid net worth into gold bullion and bitcoin (of course this being Hacker News I expect a good number of "of course" responses!) For my two cents I was embarrassingly late the the bull party and couldn't believe the rally back so fast. There will of course be a jobs recovery from the lows as the virus threat ebbs but I suspect a decent number of the jobs lost are structural and employment won't quickly rebound to sub 5%. Gun to my head I'd say high single digit unemployment could linger a while which is pretty painful. If the Federal government remains deadlocked then state and municipal austerity will multiply the economic pain.

the-dude 6y ago
AIDS never got a vaccine, SARS and MERS neither.
- GhostVII 6y ago
  There are several COVID vaccines in stage 3 trials, I think it is safe to say that we will have a vaccine being rolled out by mid 2021 at the very latest.
  - 0xffff2 6y ago
    Are you an immunologist? I'm not, but it's my layman's understanding that most candidates are likely to make it to stage 3, and that most will fail in stage 3. As far as I can tell, the number of candidates in stage 3 trials is not a strong indicator of the likelihood of a successful vaccine being developed.
    - GhostVII 6y ago
      No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine (ex. Dr. Sarah Gilbert), have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021, and have millions of doses rolling out by mid 2021.
      - dragonwriter 6y ago
        > No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine, have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021. No, Dr. Fauci has said that if the vaccines currently in testing, which are being rushed to production before trials are complete, pass trials, then it is likely that there will be tens of millions of doses available in Spring 2021 and enough for everyone who wants them by the end of 2021. But he's also acknowledged, at the same time, that that's an “if” and instead all of that vaccine could end up getting dumped if the trials fail.
        GhostVII 6y ago
        Looking ahead, Fauci said he’s “cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and as we go into 2021. I don’t think it’s dreaming … I believe it’s a reality (and) will be shown to be reality.” https://globalnews.ca/news/7242988/fauci-usa-coronavirus-vaccine-2021/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7242988/fauci-usa-coronavirus-vac... Of course nothing is guaranteed, but to me that seems like we can be pretty sure that we will have a vaccine in 2021.
        dragonwriter 6y ago
        Your source leaves out a lot of context; see this article with more context on the same remarks: https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-likely-available-to-all-americans-in-2021-2020-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-li... Fauci is cautiously optimistic that a vaccine will exist by the end of the year, be in limited deployment in Spring, and generally fully available in the US by the end of the year to everyone who wants it. But that's cautious optimism that stuff currently in testing and rushed into production in anticipation of success pans out, and there is a risk that it doesn't and we're back at square one. Nowhere does he even suggest a likely timeline if his cautious optimism about the current crop isn't realized, which he very clearly acknowledges it might not be. It may seem to you to be “pretty sure” we'll have a vaccine in 2021, but that's certainly not a conclusion supporter by Dr. Fauci’s statement.
- mortehu 6y ago
  HIV doesn't cause an effective immune response in the first place, and there's no way to verify that a SARS or MERS vaccine works, because both the intervention and control groups will get zero infections.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

the-dude 6y ago

AIDS never got a vaccine, SARS and MERS neither.

GhostVII 6y ago
There are several COVID vaccines in stage 3 trials, I think it is safe to say that we will have a vaccine being rolled out by mid 2021 at the very latest.
- 0xffff2 6y ago
  Are you an immunologist? I'm not, but it's my layman's understanding that most candidates are likely to make it to stage 3, and that most will fail in stage 3. As far as I can tell, the number of candidates in stage 3 trials is not a strong indicator of the likelihood of a successful vaccine being developed.
  - GhostVII 6y ago
    No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine (ex. Dr. Sarah Gilbert), have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021, and have millions of doses rolling out by mid 2021.
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      > No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine, have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021. No, Dr. Fauci has said that if the vaccines currently in testing, which are being rushed to production before trials are complete, pass trials, then it is likely that there will be tens of millions of doses available in Spring 2021 and enough for everyone who wants them by the end of 2021. But he's also acknowledged, at the same time, that that's an “if” and instead all of that vaccine could end up getting dumped if the trials fail.
      - GhostVII 6y ago
        Looking ahead, Fauci said he’s “cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and as we go into 2021. I don’t think it’s dreaming … I believe it’s a reality (and) will be shown to be reality.” https://globalnews.ca/news/7242988/fauci-usa-coronavirus-vaccine-2021/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7242988/fauci-usa-coronavirus-vac... Of course nothing is guaranteed, but to me that seems like we can be pretty sure that we will have a vaccine in 2021.
        dragonwriter 6y ago
        Your source leaves out a lot of context; see this article with more context on the same remarks: https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-likely-available-to-all-americans-in-2021-2020-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-li... Fauci is cautiously optimistic that a vaccine will exist by the end of the year, be in limited deployment in Spring, and generally fully available in the US by the end of the year to everyone who wants it. But that's cautious optimism that stuff currently in testing and rushed into production in anticipation of success pans out, and there is a risk that it doesn't and we're back at square one. Nowhere does he even suggest a likely timeline if his cautious optimism about the current crop isn't realized, which he very clearly acknowledges it might not be. It may seem to you to be “pretty sure” we'll have a vaccine in 2021, but that's certainly not a conclusion supporter by Dr. Fauci’s statement.
mortehu 6y ago
HIV doesn't cause an effective immune response in the first place, and there's no way to verify that a SARS or MERS vaccine works, because both the intervention and control groups will get zero infections.
deleted 6y ago
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