> From the OP: "On the other hand, we often hear reports of people uncovering old things that others had confidently predicted would never be found. Which makes

> From the OP: "On the other hand, we often hear reports of people uncovering old things that others had confidently predicted would never be found. Which makes many suspect widespread overconfidence in claims about what we know can’t be there, because if so we would have seen them already." What percentage of confident predictions about old things were eventually disproved (by uncovering old things)? Poor article with little data.