4 ms·

Not the same ball game, body count is so low you probably wouldn't get a reliable signal. And even then, I bet rural Japan and Korea are affected far less. It's

by m0zg 6y ago

Not the same ball game, body count is so low you probably wouldn't get a reliable signal. And even then, I bet rural Japan and Korea are affected far less. It's simple common sense. R0 depends on fanout exponentially. On average, the higher the density, the higher the fanout. Downvote all you want, you know I'm right. :-)

bluGill 6y ago
Until you get to a extreme rural most people do the same things with the same density. Grocery stores and the like tend to have similar densities everywhere because if you get any more dense someone else opens while any longer less and someone goes out of business. This is my observation in towns from as small 3000 to as large as 2 million. Similar for other activities, there are less people at the school games or theater, but the density is the same.
- m0zg 6y ago
  Explain NYC.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Initial conditions. Edited to add: and in case you continue to misconstrue my point, New York has _tons_ of overcrowded housing. I am by no means using density/crowding argument to wave away NY's problems. They have a severe housing crisis there.
    - m0zg 6y ago
      Glad we've come to an agreement: high density urban living ("overcrowding" in your terminology) is an epidemiological nightmare with death rates ~40% higher than less dense areas.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    Been getting less crowded for years.
epistasis 6y ago
Churches are a common place for superspreading events. These are uncorrelated with density. Your conception of Dan our does not match people's actual behavior. You seem to think that NYC is primarily facie evidence that density is somehow something that can't be overcome when trying to stop spread, but don't even consider other dense places that have not had the same problems. In Italy, rural towns were hit as hard as dense cities. NYC could have been stopped if the governor and mayor collaborated to institute policies to reduce social contact. Instead they delayed a week later than they should have, and testing failures didn't give them evidence of how far it had already spread, leading to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. We are seeing the same phenomenon in rural tourist towns in mountain areas, that had lots of early travelers. Social contact is the primary cause of spread. And density does not prevent one from limiting their social contact.
- m0zg 6y ago
  > Churches are a common place for superspreading events So is public transportation.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    No, public transit is not a common source of super-spreading events, you are just making up stuff that feels right to you and plays the dominant narrative. Seriously, find the prevalence of public transit superspreading events, if you even can. Spread happens at social places: conferences, nursing homes, churches, medical centers, meat packing plants. There are vanishingly small superspreading events from public transit. This whole thread is a perfect example of the media selling us a false narrative but persisting because is "feels" right. Public transit as a primary means of transmission runs counter to the data, but because it was one of the first things the media focused on and it "feels" right, people become so certain of their feelings that no amount of data will counter it. Some data on super spreading events, for example: https://medium.com/@codecodekoen/covid-19-superspreading-events-database-4c0a7aa2342b https://medium.com/@codecodekoen/covid-19-superspreading-eve...
    - m0zg 6y ago

by m0zg 6y ago

bluGill 6y ago

Until you get to a extreme rural most people do the same things with the same density. Grocery stores and the like tend to have similar densities everywhere because if you get any more dense someone else opens while any longer less and someone goes out of business. This is my observation in towns from as small 3000 to as large as 2 million. Similar for other activities, there are less people at the school games or theater, but the density is the same.

m0zg 6y ago
Explain NYC.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Initial conditions. Edited to add: and in case you continue to misconstrue my point, New York has _tons_ of overcrowded housing. I am by no means using density/crowding argument to wave away NY's problems. They have a severe housing crisis there.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    Glad we've come to an agreement: high density urban living ("overcrowding" in your terminology) is an epidemiological nightmare with death rates ~40% higher than less dense areas.
- bluGill 6y ago
  Been getting less crowded for years.

epistasis 6y ago

Churches are a common place for superspreading events. These are uncorrelated with density. Your conception of Dan our does not match people's actual behavior. You seem to think that NYC is primarily facie evidence that density is somehow something that can't be overcome when trying to stop spread, but don't even consider other dense places that have not had the same problems. In Italy, rural towns were hit as hard as dense cities. NYC could have been stopped if the governor and mayor collaborated to institute policies to reduce social contact. Instead they delayed a week later than they should have, and testing failures didn't give them evidence of how far it had already spread, leading to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. We are seeing the same phenomenon in rural tourist towns in mountain areas, that had lots of early travelers. Social contact is the primary cause of spread. And density does not prevent one from limiting their social contact.

m0zg 6y ago
> Churches are a common place for superspreading events So is public transportation.
- epistasis 6y ago
  No, public transit is not a common source of super-spreading events, you are just making up stuff that feels right to you and plays the dominant narrative. Seriously, find the prevalence of public transit superspreading events, if you even can. Spread happens at social places: conferences, nursing homes, churches, medical centers, meat packing plants. There are vanishingly small superspreading events from public transit. This whole thread is a perfect example of the media selling us a false narrative but persisting because is "feels" right. Public transit as a primary means of transmission runs counter to the data, but because it was one of the first things the media focused on and it "feels" right, people become so certain of their feelings that no amount of data will counter it. Some data on super spreading events, for example: https://medium.com/@codecodekoen/covid-19-superspreading-events-database-4c0a7aa2342b https://medium.com/@codecodekoen/covid-19-superspreading-eve...
  - m0zg 6y ago