4 ms·

You'd do well providing some studies to support your assertion. Best I can tell, urban centers have suffered disproportionately from C19, and they present an ep

by m0zg 6y ago

You'd do well providing some studies to support your assertion. Best I can tell, urban centers have suffered disproportionately from C19, and they present an epidemiological nightmare with their shared public infrastructure and public transportation.

jeffbee 6y ago
The thing that is really strongly associated with covid cases is housing overcrowding, that is the number of people in each dwelling, and not with density. This paper concludes that "Our most important finding is that density is unrelated to confirmed virus infection rates and inversely related to confirmed virus death rates, after controlling for other variables." https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1777891 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1...
- m0zg 6y ago
  Lots of verbiage easily refuted by a simple statistic: NYC has C19 death rate of 2279 per million. 19K people died out of 8.337M. In comparison, NY state, as of today, has a death rate of 1693 per million, and it'd have a much lower death rate if NYC was excluded (1253 per million), and lower still if you only consider rural areas. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    So, Tokyo? Seoul?
    - m0zg 6y ago
      Not the same ball game, body count is so low you probably wouldn't get a reliable signal. And even then, I bet rural Japan and Korea are affected far less. It's simple common sense. R0 depends on fanout exponentially. On average, the higher the density, the higher the fanout. Downvote all you want, you know I'm right. :-)
      - bluGill 6y ago
        Until you get to a extreme rural most people do the same things with the same density. Grocery stores and the like tend to have similar densities everywhere because if you get any more dense someone else opens while any longer less and someone goes out of business. This is my observation in towns from as small 3000 to as large as 2 million. Similar for other activities, there are less people at the school games or theater, but the density is the same.
        m0zg 6y ago
        Explain NYC.
        jeffbee 6y ago
        Initial conditions. Edited to add: and in case you continue to misconstrue my point, New York has _tons_ of overcrowded housing. I am by no means using density/crowding argument to wave away NY's problems. They have a severe housing crisis there.
        m0zg 6y ago
        Glad we've come to an agreement: high density urban living ("overcrowding" in your terminology) is an epidemiological nightmare with death rates ~40% higher than less dense areas.
        bluGill 6y ago
        Been getting less crowded for years.
      - epistasis 6y ago
        Churches are a common place for superspreading events. These are uncorrelated with density. Your conception of Dan our does not match people's actual behavior. You seem to think that NYC is primarily facie evidence that density is somehow something that can't be overcome when trying to stop spread, but don't even consider other dense places that have not had the same problems. In Italy, rural towns were hit as hard as dense cities. NYC could have been stopped if the governor and mayor collaborated to institute policies to reduce social contact. Instead they delayed a week later than they should have, and testing failures didn't give them evidence of how far it had already spread, leading to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. We are seeing the same phenomenon in rural tourist towns in mountain areas, that had lots of early travelers. Social contact is the primary cause of spread. And density does not prevent one from limiting their social contact.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    Were those deaths in the dense areas or the less dense areas? Turns out that living in a denser area was "protective." But it wasn't actually protective because density is unrelated. It's socioeconomic status and being forced to work versus being able to shelter in place. Plus all the counter examples where dense places have quickly stopped the spread. What killed NYC was terrible leadership that told people to go out and enjoy social settings, which launched the initial spread, and then people forced to continue in essential jobs where it could continue to spread. Not density.

by m0zg 6y ago

jeffbee 6y ago

The thing that is really strongly associated with covid cases is housing overcrowding, that is the number of people in each dwelling, and not with density. This paper concludes that "Our most important finding is that density is unrelated to confirmed virus infection rates and inversely related to confirmed virus death rates, after controlling for other variables." https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1777891 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1...

m0zg 6y ago
Lots of verbiage easily refuted by a simple statistic: NYC has C19 death rate of 2279 per million. 19K people died out of 8.337M. In comparison, NY state, as of today, has a death rate of 1693 per million, and it'd have a much lower death rate if NYC was excluded (1253 per million), and lower still if you only consider rural areas. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
- jeffbee 6y ago
  So, Tokyo? Seoul?
  - m0zg 6y ago
    Not the same ball game, body count is so low you probably wouldn't get a reliable signal. And even then, I bet rural Japan and Korea are affected far less. It's simple common sense. R0 depends on fanout exponentially. On average, the higher the density, the higher the fanout. Downvote all you want, you know I'm right. :-)
    - bluGill 6y ago
      Until you get to a extreme rural most people do the same things with the same density. Grocery stores and the like tend to have similar densities everywhere because if you get any more dense someone else opens while any longer less and someone goes out of business. This is my observation in towns from as small 3000 to as large as 2 million. Similar for other activities, there are less people at the school games or theater, but the density is the same.
      - m0zg 6y ago
        Explain NYC.
        jeffbee 6y ago
        Initial conditions. Edited to add: and in case you continue to misconstrue my point, New York has _tons_ of overcrowded housing. I am by no means using density/crowding argument to wave away NY's problems. They have a severe housing crisis there.
        m0zg 6y ago
        Glad we've come to an agreement: high density urban living ("overcrowding" in your terminology) is an epidemiological nightmare with death rates ~40% higher than less dense areas.
        bluGill 6y ago
        Been getting less crowded for years.
    - epistasis 6y ago
      Churches are a common place for superspreading events. These are uncorrelated with density. Your conception of Dan our does not match people's actual behavior. You seem to think that NYC is primarily facie evidence that density is somehow something that can't be overcome when trying to stop spread, but don't even consider other dense places that have not had the same problems. In Italy, rural towns were hit as hard as dense cities. NYC could have been stopped if the governor and mayor collaborated to institute policies to reduce social contact. Instead they delayed a week later than they should have, and testing failures didn't give them evidence of how far it had already spread, leading to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. We are seeing the same phenomenon in rural tourist towns in mountain areas, that had lots of early travelers. Social contact is the primary cause of spread. And density does not prevent one from limiting their social contact.
- epistasis 6y ago
  Were those deaths in the dense areas or the less dense areas? Turns out that living in a denser area was "protective." But it wasn't actually protective because density is unrelated. It's socioeconomic status and being forced to work versus being able to shelter in place. Plus all the counter examples where dense places have quickly stopped the spread. What killed NYC was terrible leadership that told people to go out and enjoy social settings, which launched the initial spread, and then people forced to continue in essential jobs where it could continue to spread. Not density.