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It must be getting pretty crowded up in LEO. How long before we get a Kessler Effect? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/w

It must be getting pretty crowded up in LEO. How long before we get a Kessler Effect? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

ladberg 6y ago
Even adding thousands more satellites the chance that any will hit each other is incredibly small, and even if they hit it's probably not going to cascade. The Kessler effect only becomes a real possibility once we start purposefully blowing up many satellites.
outworlder 6y ago
Not nearly crowded enough. Picture the ocean. Can we agree that it's immense? How many ships can we launch until it becomes too crowded? Now imagine the Earth has no land masses and oceans cover all of it. How many more ships can we add? Now imagine that the Earth is bigger than what it is. A few hundred KM larger in radius. Your oceans have become so much bigger now as they have a larger area. And now imagine your ships are not only on the surface, but they could be submarines, or they could be planes, all crossing one another without ever touching. This is what space looks like. It's ridiculously big. The only issue is that some orbits are way more useful than others, so they get more use. We can fit a crapton of stuff there, provided that we stop doing dumb things (like blowing up satellites). LEO also has plenty of drag, so they decay. Higher orbits are more problematic.
- throw0101a 6y ago
  > Picture the ocean. Can we agree that it's immense? How many ships can we launch until it becomes too crowded? Except that we're not worried about just the large things like "ships" (satellites), but all the small things as well. Something measuring 1 cm on a side can cause critical damage, and things that 10 cm would be catastrophic: * https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/12/11664668/iss-window-chip-space-debris-tim-peake https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/12/11664668/iss-window-chip-... Even "the impact from a tiny piece of space debris, possibly a paint flake or small metal fragment no bigger than a few thousandths of a millimetre across" can crack the windows on the ISS: * http://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2016/05/Impact_chip http://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2016/05/Impact_chip And I'd rather we worry about these things while they are not a problem, rather than later when they become one: an ounce of prevention and all that.
  - mschuster91 6y ago
    Maybe it's time to start some research into making Star Trek's deflector shields a reality - not just to avoid being locked into the planet in case of a Kessler Syndrome, but also to make spacecraft of all kind (from satellites over ships to stations) less dependent on (vulnerable and heavy) physical shields.
    - sebazzz 6y ago
      If it could be done, also remember that in Star Trek the deflector shields are powered by the warp engine, so they so a lot of power.
      - mschuster91 6y ago
        I could believe that some form of high resolution and high speed radar combined with some form of "gun" could solve the problem - similar to Israel's Iron Dome, blast whatever is detected and deemed dangerous away or out of the way. Compressed air or another gas could work IMO as a first step, we already have the basic tech for that in trash sorting solutions.
- BurningFrog 6y ago
  Ships can avoid collisions though.
  - dpifke 6y ago
    So can operational satellites: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_maneuver https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_maneuver Moving to avoid potential collisions is relatively common.
- ericbarrett 6y ago
  All good points. But now imagine all the ships are traveling at 14,500 knots and can’t stop or turn, aside from minor depth changes.
- bigiain 6y ago
  "Space," it says, "is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mindbogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." -- Douglas Adams, Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy. (And yeah LEO is just a tiny infinitesimal scrap of "space", but its still big enough even humanity hasn't managed to mess it up completely yet...)
- megablast 6y ago
  Ships do hit each other all the time. 24 large cargo ships sink every year.

It must be getting pretty crowded up in LEO. How long before we get a Kessler Effect? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

ladberg 6y ago

Even adding thousands more satellites the chance that any will hit each other is incredibly small, and even if they hit it's probably not going to cascade. The Kessler effect only becomes a real possibility once we start purposefully blowing up many satellites.

outworlder 6y ago

Not nearly crowded enough. Picture the ocean. Can we agree that it's immense? How many ships can we launch until it becomes too crowded? Now imagine the Earth has no land masses and oceans cover all of it. How many more ships can we add? Now imagine that the Earth is bigger than what it is. A few hundred KM larger in radius. Your oceans have become so much bigger now as they have a larger area. And now imagine your ships are not only on the surface, but they could be submarines, or they could be planes, all crossing one another without ever touching. This is what space looks like. It's ridiculously big. The only issue is that some orbits are way more useful than others, so they get more use. We can fit a crapton of stuff there, provided that we stop doing dumb things (like blowing up satellites). LEO also has plenty of drag, so they decay. Higher orbits are more problematic.

throw0101a 6y ago
> Picture the ocean. Can we agree that it's immense? How many ships can we launch until it becomes too crowded? Except that we're not worried about just the large things like "ships" (satellites), but all the small things as well. Something measuring 1 cm on a side can cause critical damage, and things that 10 cm would be catastrophic: * https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/12/11664668/iss-window-chip-space-debris-tim-peake https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/12/11664668/iss-window-chip-... Even "the impact from a tiny piece of space debris, possibly a paint flake or small metal fragment no bigger than a few thousandths of a millimetre across" can crack the windows on the ISS: * http://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2016/05/Impact_chip http://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2016/05/Impact_chip And I'd rather we worry about these things while they are not a problem, rather than later when they become one: an ounce of prevention and all that.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  Maybe it's time to start some research into making Star Trek's deflector shields a reality - not just to avoid being locked into the planet in case of a Kessler Syndrome, but also to make spacecraft of all kind (from satellites over ships to stations) less dependent on (vulnerable and heavy) physical shields.
  - sebazzz 6y ago
    If it could be done, also remember that in Star Trek the deflector shields are powered by the warp engine, so they so a lot of power.
    - mschuster91 6y ago
      I could believe that some form of high resolution and high speed radar combined with some form of "gun" could solve the problem - similar to Israel's Iron Dome, blast whatever is detected and deemed dangerous away or out of the way. Compressed air or another gas could work IMO as a first step, we already have the basic tech for that in trash sorting solutions.
BurningFrog 6y ago
Ships can avoid collisions though.
- dpifke 6y ago
  So can operational satellites: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_maneuver https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_maneuver Moving to avoid potential collisions is relatively common.
ericbarrett 6y ago
All good points. But now imagine all the ships are traveling at 14,500 knots and can’t stop or turn, aside from minor depth changes.
bigiain 6y ago
"Space," it says, "is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mindbogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." -- Douglas Adams, Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy. (And yeah LEO is just a tiny infinitesimal scrap of "space", but its still big enough even humanity hasn't managed to mess it up completely yet...)
megablast 6y ago
Ships do hit each other all the time. 24 large cargo ships sink every year.