8 ms·

The open question is whether Google and Facebook will also end up in this same spot. As you said, everyone will end up here. There's virtually no way a ration

The open question is whether Google and Facebook will also end up in this same spot. As you said, everyone will end up here. There's virtually no way a rational company can avoid it. It's textbook Innovator's Dilemma. Eventually you're faced with a situation that there is a new product/service that is cannibalizing your product. You can hasten the cannibalization of your cash cow and maybe succeed in this new space (or maybe not), or you can milk you cash cow for all its worth. If you do the math its almost always better to NOT hasten your own demise for an uncertain future. But even if you were to break them up, there's really no good way to break them up that really helps all that much. Windows and Office? Nothing else can really exist on its own. Now you have two big monsters that have the same problems, but spread out in two companies. I think you have to let nature take its course. Which probably means some breakout technology that lets them continue their cash cow while providing new scenarios. If Windows 8 can actually merge the desktop, tablet, and phone in a way never even envisioned, that would be a shot. But it's such a long shot I wouldn't hold out much hope.

MartinCron 16y ago
Even if integrating desktop, tablet, and phone in a way that has never been envisioned is a good idea at all (and I can't say). I feel that Windows 8 will either be way too soon to do it well, or they will way take too long to ship Windows 8. We haven't even got one proven good iteration of anything Windows on phone or tablet yet.
- kenjackson 16y ago
  I agree... I suspect if it is a good idea it will be too soon to do it well. And in five years Apple will do it well. That's the story of the MS product pipeline. Do something five years too early to do it well -- get stuck in the decisions made at that point in time and can't come back and realize that the decisions of five years ago no long apply.
justanotheratom 16y ago
But Apple in contrast has turned out to be surprisingly nimble and my impression is that their employees are quite happy.
- lukev 16y ago
  I imagine Apple as an absolute monarchy, with Jobs handing down dictates from on high. If I imagine decisions at MS, I imagine a committee process. I think the results the companies are having bear out those impressions.
  - stretchwithme 16y ago
    Its interesting to me that one of the most successful absolute monarchies, Great Britain, in the end became ruled by committee. And eventually lost its empire, with the next great power ruled a committee constrained by a constitution. And that constitution eroding away has led to the committee pretty much pissing it away. So, yeah, committees are not good. A system governed by sensible rules that rewards smart action, punishes bad actors and forgives errors is better.
    - archangel_one 16y ago
      True, but there is no evidence that such a system can remain for any significant length of time (or in most cases even come about in the first place) in practice. If you look at any country of significant size they mostly appear to be ruled by a committee or an absolute dictator. The committees could be said to generally be doing a bad job but nowhere near as bad as the worst cases of the dictators, but nobody has this ideal system governed by sensible rules - possibly because when you get enough human beings together in the first place they can't agree on what any sensible rules would be.
      - cabalamat 16y ago
        An absolute ruler who is competent can get a lot done. An absolute ruler who is incompetent or bad for his people, OTOH, is hard to remove.
blacksmythe 16y ago
>> If you do the math its almost always better to >> NOT hasten your own demise for an uncertain future. In the short run it is always looks better to not cannibalize your products, and managers are driven mostly by short term objectives. >> for an uncertain future. If you don't cannibalize your products what is almost certain is eventual failure: http://www.economist.com/node/14248815?story_id=14248815 http://www.economist.com/node/14248815?story_id=14248815
- cabalamat 16y ago
  > If you don't cannibalize your products what is almost certain is eventual failure What I see happening is smartphones and tablets taking over much of the territory where people now use laptops and desktop PCs. Which is why Microsoft's failure in those two markets is so damning.
- waqf 16y ago
  But even if (especially if?) you confidently foresee eventual failure, the net present value of your assets may be maximized by milking them right now. Just because there also exists a profitable market in cannibalizing your product, doesn't mean you have to be in that market.
yuhong 16y ago
When the secret copyright-related Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty made Hacker News, I asked "Any idea on how to finally fix all this?" partly due to the fact that I was getting frustrated with what was happening and what was causing it: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2315729 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2315729

MartinCron 16y ago

Even if integrating desktop, tablet, and phone in a way that has never been envisioned is a good idea at all (and I can't say). I feel that Windows 8 will either be way too soon to do it well, or they will way take too long to ship Windows 8. We haven't even got one proven good iteration of anything Windows on phone or tablet yet.

kenjackson 16y ago
I agree... I suspect if it is a good idea it will be too soon to do it well. And in five years Apple will do it well. That's the story of the MS product pipeline. Do something five years too early to do it well -- get stuck in the decisions made at that point in time and can't come back and realize that the decisions of five years ago no long apply.

justanotheratom 16y ago

But Apple in contrast has turned out to be surprisingly nimble and my impression is that their employees are quite happy.

lukev 16y ago
I imagine Apple as an absolute monarchy, with Jobs handing down dictates from on high. If I imagine decisions at MS, I imagine a committee process. I think the results the companies are having bear out those impressions.
- stretchwithme 16y ago
  Its interesting to me that one of the most successful absolute monarchies, Great Britain, in the end became ruled by committee. And eventually lost its empire, with the next great power ruled a committee constrained by a constitution. And that constitution eroding away has led to the committee pretty much pissing it away. So, yeah, committees are not good. A system governed by sensible rules that rewards smart action, punishes bad actors and forgives errors is better.
  - archangel_one 16y ago
    True, but there is no evidence that such a system can remain for any significant length of time (or in most cases even come about in the first place) in practice. If you look at any country of significant size they mostly appear to be ruled by a committee or an absolute dictator. The committees could be said to generally be doing a bad job but nowhere near as bad as the worst cases of the dictators, but nobody has this ideal system governed by sensible rules - possibly because when you get enough human beings together in the first place they can't agree on what any sensible rules would be.
    - cabalamat 16y ago
      An absolute ruler who is competent can get a lot done. An absolute ruler who is incompetent or bad for his people, OTOH, is hard to remove.

blacksmythe 16y ago

>> If you do the math its almost always better to >> NOT hasten your own demise for an uncertain future. In the short run it is always looks better to not cannibalize your products, and managers are driven mostly by short term objectives. >> for an uncertain future. If you don't cannibalize your products what is almost certain is eventual failure: http://www.economist.com/node/14248815?story_id=14248815 http://www.economist.com/node/14248815?story_id=14248815

cabalamat 16y ago
> If you don't cannibalize your products what is almost certain is eventual failure What I see happening is smartphones and tablets taking over much of the territory where people now use laptops and desktop PCs. Which is why Microsoft's failure in those two markets is so damning.
waqf 16y ago
But even if (especially if?) you confidently foresee eventual failure, the net present value of your assets may be maximized by milking them right now. Just because there also exists a profitable market in cannibalizing your product, doesn't mean you have to be in that market.

yuhong 16y ago

When the secret copyright-related Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty made Hacker News, I asked "Any idea on how to finally fix all this?" partly due to the fact that I was getting frustrated with what was happening and what was causing it: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2315729 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2315729