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> 500 million pacific islanders will be forced to flee to Southeast Asia How the heck did you come up with this number? The entire population of Oceania exclud

> 500 million pacific islanders will be forced to flee to Southeast Asia How the heck did you come up with this number? The entire population of Oceania excluding Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea is 3 million.

flerchin 6y ago
What do you consider Indonesia and the Philippines?
- saddlerustle 6y ago
  Indonesia and the Philippines pretty universally considered southeast asia and not pacific island nations. They are in-fact the majority of southeast asia, which they are supposedly fleeing to? Also, they're quite developed countries and to the relatively small extent their food consumption is fish, it comes from trade and commercial fishing, not subsistence fishing, so their food supply will be no more impacted than any other asian country. And even that impact will look more like more seafood coming from fish farms as commercial fishing becomes less viable, as we've seen in China. There are people, predominantly in the pacific islands proper, who rely on subsistence fishing and the decline of fish stocks will be hugely disruptive for them. It's still a big tragedy, but the number is more like a couple hundred thousand. I don't think it helps the debate to exaggerate by three orders of magnitude.
  - hanniabu 6y ago
    > Indonesia and the Philippines pretty universally considered southeast asia "...will be forced to flee Southeast asia" OP says it right there in the same sentence you quoted...
    - saddlerustle 6y ago
      Uhh the quote is "will be forced to flee to Southeast Asia"?
- WaltPurvis 6y ago
  Not "Pacific Islanders" — the term Pacific Islanders refers to residents of Oceania, and does not include Indonesia or the Philippines.
dougmwne 6y ago
Indonesia and the Philippines are island nations. Their population is 273 million and 110 million respectively.
- pvaldes 6y ago
  The action is placed in 2050 and nothing prevents the actual population to change their numbers in the next years, is just a way to say lottazillions of people
natch 6y ago
Can’t speak for the parent of your post, so I don’t know if the numbers add up, but population of Indonesia alone is 270 million. And the country is spread out amongst many islands. That’s just one country of many.
- FlyingSnake 6y ago
  Indonesia is South East Asia.
  - mikepurvis 6y ago
    I think the more pertinent question is how much of Indonesia's diet depends on the reefs. It seems like the answer is "a lot", though it's hard to get a sense of it as a proportion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_cuisine#Fish https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_cuisine#Fish
    - nogabebop23 6y ago
      eat fish != depend on reefs for fish. They have very developed commercial fishing not subsistence reef fishing.
      - sadfklsjlkjwt 6y ago
        The question is where the food chain starts.
    - zerkten 6y ago
      It's not specific to reefs, although they may be hit hardest. Acidification and warming temperatures have much broader impacts on biodiverity. The point people miss is that fighting climate change is actually a fight to extend the amount of time before we have even more significant losses to biodiversity. There are significant conflicts over water (https://reliefweb.int/report/world/editor-s-pick-10-violent-water-conflicts https://reliefweb.int/report/world/editor-s-pick-10-violent-...). I'd expect those to extend to food too, and be acute in some regions. I couldn't reply to the other poster (nogabebop23) that was making the point that they don't depend on reefs, but their point is moot because this is a global issue with different impacts at each latitude.
ascar 6y ago
Maybe some references help to clear this up. GP apparently did get his geography mixed up. The term Pacific Islander [1] seems to not include the Philippines and Indonesia, as these islands are generally considered to be part of South East Asia [2]. One logical connection is that the Philippines and Indonesia are tectonically on the Asian crust [3], while the islands to the east are on the oceanic crust. Thus the original statement of 500 million people fleeing to southeast asia makes geographically no sense, but I guess the intent of the people of Indonesia, Philippines etc. being cut off of seafood remains clear. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islander https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islander [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ocean#/media/File:Pacific_Basin_Island_Geography.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ocean#/media/File:Paci...
xwdv 6y ago
He’s accounting for the population growth by 2050.
zackmorris 6y ago
Hey sorry for the mixup, you're right, I should have said from Southeast Asia. I didn't realize that Indonesia and the Philippines were part of it. I was trying to make the point that the influx of refugees from Pacific island nations will destabilize regions like Korea and Vietnam which have already seen such terrible conflict. India's going to be underwater, so there's going to be a northward migration of something like 500 million people from there and elsewhere. The endgame is that those countries will likely be communist and a mix of non-christian religions. So the US seems to be positioning itself as pro-Russia and anti-China in a divide-and-conquer strategy. I think that's shortsighted, because the 21st century won't have 20th century politics. I'd rather see our attention turn towards not screwing over the developing countries that provide our goods and services. We could like, trade with them rather than bomb them. Admittedly, I'm probably misreading this, and also don't want to detract from environmental discussion.

flerchin 6y ago

What do you consider Indonesia and the Philippines?

saddlerustle 6y ago
Indonesia and the Philippines pretty universally considered southeast asia and not pacific island nations. They are in-fact the majority of southeast asia, which they are supposedly fleeing to? Also, they're quite developed countries and to the relatively small extent their food consumption is fish, it comes from trade and commercial fishing, not subsistence fishing, so their food supply will be no more impacted than any other asian country. And even that impact will look more like more seafood coming from fish farms as commercial fishing becomes less viable, as we've seen in China. There are people, predominantly in the pacific islands proper, who rely on subsistence fishing and the decline of fish stocks will be hugely disruptive for them. It's still a big tragedy, but the number is more like a couple hundred thousand. I don't think it helps the debate to exaggerate by three orders of magnitude.
- hanniabu 6y ago
  > Indonesia and the Philippines pretty universally considered southeast asia "...will be forced to flee Southeast asia" OP says it right there in the same sentence you quoted...
  - saddlerustle 6y ago
    Uhh the quote is "will be forced to flee to Southeast Asia"?
WaltPurvis 6y ago
Not "Pacific Islanders" — the term Pacific Islanders refers to residents of Oceania, and does not include Indonesia or the Philippines.

dougmwne 6y ago

Indonesia and the Philippines are island nations. Their population is 273 million and 110 million respectively.

pvaldes 6y ago
The action is placed in 2050 and nothing prevents the actual population to change their numbers in the next years, is just a way to say lottazillions of people

natch 6y ago

Can’t speak for the parent of your post, so I don’t know if the numbers add up, but population of Indonesia alone is 270 million. And the country is spread out amongst many islands. That’s just one country of many.

FlyingSnake 6y ago
Indonesia is South East Asia.
- mikepurvis 6y ago
  I think the more pertinent question is how much of Indonesia's diet depends on the reefs. It seems like the answer is "a lot", though it's hard to get a sense of it as a proportion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_cuisine#Fish https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_cuisine#Fish
  - nogabebop23 6y ago
    eat fish != depend on reefs for fish. They have very developed commercial fishing not subsistence reef fishing.
    - sadfklsjlkjwt 6y ago
      The question is where the food chain starts.
  - zerkten 6y ago
    It's not specific to reefs, although they may be hit hardest. Acidification and warming temperatures have much broader impacts on biodiverity. The point people miss is that fighting climate change is actually a fight to extend the amount of time before we have even more significant losses to biodiversity. There are significant conflicts over water (https://reliefweb.int/report/world/editor-s-pick-10-violent-water-conflicts https://reliefweb.int/report/world/editor-s-pick-10-violent-...). I'd expect those to extend to food too, and be acute in some regions. I couldn't reply to the other poster (nogabebop23) that was making the point that they don't depend on reefs, but their point is moot because this is a global issue with different impacts at each latitude.

ascar 6y ago

Maybe some references help to clear this up. GP apparently did get his geography mixed up. The term Pacific Islander [1] seems to not include the Philippines and Indonesia, as these islands are generally considered to be part of South East Asia [2]. One logical connection is that the Philippines and Indonesia are tectonically on the Asian crust [3], while the islands to the east are on the oceanic crust. Thus the original statement of 500 million people fleeing to southeast asia makes geographically no sense, but I guess the intent of the people of Indonesia, Philippines etc. being cut off of seafood remains clear. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islander https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islander [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ocean#/media/File:Pacific_Basin_Island_Geography.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ocean#/media/File:Paci...

xwdv 6y ago

He’s accounting for the population growth by 2050.

zackmorris 6y ago

Hey sorry for the mixup, you're right, I should have said from Southeast Asia. I didn't realize that Indonesia and the Philippines were part of it. I was trying to make the point that the influx of refugees from Pacific island nations will destabilize regions like Korea and Vietnam which have already seen such terrible conflict. India's going to be underwater, so there's going to be a northward migration of something like 500 million people from there and elsewhere. The endgame is that those countries will likely be communist and a mix of non-christian religions. So the US seems to be positioning itself as pro-Russia and anti-China in a divide-and-conquer strategy. I think that's shortsighted, because the 21st century won't have 20th century politics. I'd rather see our attention turn towards not screwing over the developing countries that provide our goods and services. We could like, trade with them rather than bomb them. Admittedly, I'm probably misreading this, and also don't want to detract from environmental discussion.