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The S&P isn't risk-free! The only risk-free asset is US Treasury bonds, because we assume US Treasury can't default on payments. The goal of a robo advisor, fo
by atombender 6y ago
The S&P isn't risk-free! The only risk-free asset is US Treasury bonds, because we assume US Treasury can't default on payments.
The goal of a robo advisor, for most people, is not to beat the S&P, but to balance risk and reward according to the individual's time horizon and risk profile without any manual intervention.
Beating the S&P is a fun game for people who want to spend time on it, but this isn't for the general populace.
If you want to beat the S&P and you're okay with above-average risk, but also want a completely hands-off approach, I would suggest 100% PSLDX [1]. It's a hybrid active/passive mutual fund that uses buy derivatives (futures and swaps), collateralized by bonds, to boost S&P returns. The high (1.01%) fee only looks high until you look at the returns; most years, it does 20-30%. Its return in 2019 was 52%. In theory, it should do only slightly worse than the S&P in a bad year.
Another interesting futures-based fund is NTSX [2]. It's pretty new, but it's consistently beat the S&P since inception, and did very well in the March dip.
[1] https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/psldx/quote https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/psldx/quote
[2] https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ntsx/quote https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ntsx/quote
- nojito 6y agoA fund like psldx magnifies in both directions. It’s easy to get enamored when the market is doing well.
- atombender 6y agoI would say that PSLDX has proven itself. Max drawdown since inception (2008) is about the same as VFINX, less than VTIAX/VGTSX. Return in 2008 was -33%, compared to -37% for the S&P 500. In March, it dipped more than the S&P, but not terribly so. The only year it didn't significantly outperform the S&P was 2013.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- tfehring 6y agoFor what it's worth, I'd expect that leverage to come back to bite you in the ass in a rising interest rate environment. Granted, we haven't seen a sustained period of rising interest rates for 40+ years, but it's not obvious that that will continue.