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Asking in 2020 what will replace the smartphone feels like asking in 1950 what will replace the motor car. Augmented Reality contact lenses are the modern equi
by HereBeBeasties 6y ago
Asking in 2020 what will replace the smartphone feels like asking in 1950 what will replace the motor car.
Augmented Reality contact lenses are the modern equivalent of 1950s predictions of nuclear-powered flying cars.
I don't think smartphones will really be replaced for forty years or more. It sounds like a long time but it really isn't. We've not come that far since the original iPhone. And that itself wasn't that much of a leap from various form factors five to ten years earlier - just a lot slicker in terms of UI. So phones will just get better. One can easily imagine the battery tech improving, perhaps practical rollable or foldable screens, lighter weight, etc. Fundamentally one wants something that easily fits in a pocket (current modern flagship phones are too large), provides a good display for interactive content and allows silent text and voice input.
I think cars, phones, tablets, laptops, desktop computers and TVs will all converge more in terms of control interfaces. There's plenty of evidence of this already with Android Auto in things like the new Polestar 2, the decline of custom TV software in favour of Android/Amazon's FireTV OS, etc. That's felt around the corner for years now, but feels like it might finally happen soon.
Evolution not revolution, in other words.
- perilunar 6y ago> Fundamentally one wants something that easily fits in a pocket I don't think we really do. Constantly pulling your phone out of a pocket is unnecessary friction, and just as pocket watches gave way to wrist watches, I think phones will become something you wear, not carry.
- alok99 6y agoI think it will remain pocket-bound for a while until battery technology improves enough to make smaller or more flexible form factors viable. I think a neural connection is the next big jump, but we're not near that jump just yet. So I agree something wearable or otherwise more attached is the next step. Having said that, I don't know what a wearable would look like. I don't think smart watches are the future - just a stepping stone in the wearable direction. It's too small to replace a smartphone, and doesn't have a flexible user experience. For example, I lose one hand's worth of interactivity with a smart watch, and I have to keep my arm bent to do so. Where can you wear something that you can still easily interact with? I dunno. Maybe a James Bond shoe phone.