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It's not obvious that predicted grades are categorically worse than the system they put in place though, is it? In some aggregate statistics we can see them per

It's not obvious that predicted grades are categorically worse than the system they put in place though, is it? In some aggregate statistics we can see them perform worse but exams and grading aren't about averages at school level but individual achievement. A prediction systems that doesn't take students prior achievements into account is just obviously defective here. And that matters especially if it locks out a whole year of students from the top universities that are so life/career deciding in the UK, because getting a place at them by definition requires being an outlier. The social and cultural factors at play are not well represented by just looking at the mean. And finally, so what if 2020 had had outlier grade average? It's the outlier year.

luckylion 6y ago
> A prediction systems that doesn't take students prior achievements into account is just obviously defective here. Doesn't it? What else would how students have been ranked in ability mean? > And finally, so what if 2020 had had outlier grade average? It's the outlier year. "Hey, we'll give everyone 40% better grades, because it was a tough year" won't do good. You'll get lots of people into university who will fail miserably, because the grades don't magically improve their skills. Unless, and that's a bad idea as well, you just tighten the criteria so the same number as before can go to uni. Grade inflation won't help anyone either.
makomk 6y ago
We're going to have a demonstration of what happens if everyone just gets the predicted grades and 2020 becomes an outlier year, because the government did a u-turn and it happened. So far, top-tier universities don't have the space to admit everyone who meets their offer requirements, the lower-tier universities are likely to not have enough students to remain financially viable due to everyone going to the top-tier ones, it's likely that the former will be ameliorated somewhat by removing the cap on admissions but this will make the latter worse, and it's all a huge mess. Every part of this was predictable, but none of it was explained by the press - which had been pushing the idea that everyone should be able to get their predicted grades - until it actually happened, because they were more interested in blaming the Government than accurately describing the pros and cons of the different options. Now the BBC is pushing for an inquiry as their headline front-page story, as though there was some kind of secret malfeasance to be uncovered rather than a set of bad options with really obvious, unavoidable tradeoffs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53826305 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53826305

luckylion 6y ago

> A prediction systems that doesn't take students prior achievements into account is just obviously defective here. Doesn't it? What else would how students have been ranked in ability mean? > And finally, so what if 2020 had had outlier grade average? It's the outlier year. "Hey, we'll give everyone 40% better grades, because it was a tough year" won't do good. You'll get lots of people into university who will fail miserably, because the grades don't magically improve their skills. Unless, and that's a bad idea as well, you just tighten the criteria so the same number as before can go to uni. Grade inflation won't help anyone either.

makomk 6y ago

We're going to have a demonstration of what happens if everyone just gets the predicted grades and 2020 becomes an outlier year, because the government did a u-turn and it happened. So far, top-tier universities don't have the space to admit everyone who meets their offer requirements, the lower-tier universities are likely to not have enough students to remain financially viable due to everyone going to the top-tier ones, it's likely that the former will be ameliorated somewhat by removing the cap on admissions but this will make the latter worse, and it's all a huge mess. Every part of this was predictable, but none of it was explained by the press - which had been pushing the idea that everyone should be able to get their predicted grades - until it actually happened, because they were more interested in blaming the Government than accurately describing the pros and cons of the different options. Now the BBC is pushing for an inquiry as their headline front-page story, as though there was some kind of secret malfeasance to be uncovered rather than a set of bad options with really obvious, unavoidable tradeoffs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53826305 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53826305