4 ms·
As I understood it: 1. Teachers submit both an estimated grade and a relative rank ordering for each student 2. Ofqual calculate a distribution based on the p
by marksomnian 6y ago
As I understood it:
1. Teachers submit both an estimated grade and a relative rank ordering for each student
2. Ofqual calculate a distribution based on the predicted grades
3. They compare it to grade distributions at that school from previous years
4. If need be, they shift the distribution up or down to be roughly in line with that school's prior results
5. They then use the rank ordering to assign students grades from that distribution (e.g. in a class with 20 students, each student is worth 5% of the distribution - so if it predicted 10% A* (highest grade), 15% A, etc., the top 2 students would get an A*, the next 3 an A and so on)
- jarvist 6y agoIt's more complicated than this. They haven't just taken the rank ordering by the teachers and projected onto a curve. Here is the 319 page document published on results day. This is the totality of the current description of the 'algorithm'. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909368/6656-1_Awarding_GCSE__AS__A_level__advanced_extension_awards_and_extended_project_qualifications_in_summer_2020_-_interim_report.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... There's some kind of predictive linear model (page 40) which is based on a student's prior attainment (i.e. GCSE and SATs 'data'), but then modelled at the level of the exam centre (i.e. school). These models are separately fitted for different bins (I think ten are shown at one point) of achievement. The whole document is pretty incoherent. I suspect the 'algorithm' is a set of excel spreadsheets.