5 ms·
I don't think it's going to be a wash, or prices wouldn't fall. You're right that this will decrease tax bases, so I guess the real question is "by how much?".
by adjkant 6y ago
I don't think it's going to be a wash, or prices wouldn't fall. You're right that this will decrease tax bases, so I guess the real question is "by how much?". Only time will tell what that looks like, but I think that will lead more to rebudgeting/allocating than just objective negative losses.
Your specific examples are interesting though, as NYC's population explicitly rejected Amazon's HQ2 with public backlash. NYC has always been defined by being a city of many industries, both white collar and creative. The day that's not true is the day NYC is no longer NYC. I think SF is a great example of what that looks like if you even compare SF of 2000 to 2020. I was between the two cities when I graduated college, and the diversity of industries is one of the main reasons I chose NYC. I don't want to be socially surrounded by my day job.
NYC has gotten along just fine without having a large tech worker population (in terms of percentages), and there are also plenty of tech workers like me that are staying. While some of my coworkers have moved since pandemic, most have not and are still contributing to NYC taxes you're concerned with.
These are all open questions that we need to answer, but the reason I look at this as a good thing still is that as a lover of cities, I'd much rather have these new issues. The mass influx of tech and wealth that cities have struggled with in the past 5+ years were/are eroding many of the things that define the actual cores of said cities, and when that's complete, you end up with more unhappy people on all sides. SF is certainly the closest to that point, and this exodus, if real, just might give it a chance to be saved.
- zepto 6y agoIt’s also worth noting that this has happened before in SF multiple times, to varying degrees, and the result has generally been an invigoration of culture in one way or another.
- adjkant 6y agoCan you elaborate on that? I can't say I'm an SF history expert, but I've never heard of those shifts so I'm truly curious what you're referring to.
- zepto 6y agoSee the other answer - captures what I was referring to.
- tlb 6y agoI was in the Bay Area for the 2001 and 2008 tech crashes. Cheap space made all kinds of things possible: performances, art projects, experimental living arrangements, bootstrapped startups, maker spaces, high-concept restaurants, ... When people can start things without institutional funding, they can build interesting, speculative things. Some of those speculative things end up making lots of money, while most go bust, but either way it's an interesting environment to be part of.
- jpochtar 6y agoNYC's population did not reject HQ2— a very small, vocal group killed it, angering quite a few of the rest of us. Even then, the controversy was over 1) tax breaks to Amazon being an unnecessary handout (turns out they weren't), and 2) which neighborhood to be in.
- adjkant 6y agoI've yet to encounter someone in my NYC circle who isn't glad HQ2 was killed. Activists may be a small portion, but that doesn't represent the entirety of local support. None of the people I know were directly involved in said activism. By this poll [1], 36% opposed it. While it may not be a majority, over a third of people is notable. I'm not looking to rehash this in gruesome detail, but I think your qualm is with much more nuance than "a very small, vocal group killed it". [1] https://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/c25e9a3a-d06b-4448-963e-9a711d27b98a.pdf https://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/c25e9a3a-d06b-...