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These HN comments don't seem to grasp that there are two distinct groups of people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are in th

• chrisco255 6y ago
  Do you mind giving examples of what you have access to in NYC when so many things are shuttered right now? As for "white flight" it's more of a "white collar flight" where people with money and resources and higher income remote jobs will leave as long as living conditions suck.
  • adjkant 6y ago
    > Do you mind giving examples of what you have access to in NYC when so many things are shuttered right now? Right now, I've basically reallocated my budget of city activities towards local restaurants, and I've been eating a ton of great delivery. As the cases have slowed, I'm cautiously considering outdoor dining. Either way, I'm eating great food right now. I live in Brooklyn, so Prospect Park (central park of the borough) is always nice for walks or distanced picnics with friends. My local neighborhood is also just generally pleasant for walks. Many outdoor farmers markets are still in full swing. There's an outdoor climbing gym in Dumbo that I can walk to from my apartment, and I go there now as well even. Full contact tracing, check-in/out, reservation system, the whole nine yards. Not many places have a large outdoor climbing gym. All of this is also powered by people actually following mask laws and it being summer. I'm fully aware winter is going to be less fun, but I'm ready to weather that and order lots of good delivery. > As for "white flight" it's more of a "white collar flight" where people with money and resources and higher income remote jobs will leave as long as living conditions suck. Well put, and I think that will be a big positive for cities if it continues.
    • 01100011 6y ago
      With the exception of a specialized gym for climbing, none of what you've listed is anything unique to an urban environment. I've lived in various suburbs my whole life and have everything else you've listed. For much of that time, I also had a private backyard, which is something you generally don't get in urbia. You can't beat the efficiency of an urban environment though.
      • adjkant 6y ago
        I think you underestimate the density of restaurants and cuisines available. No suburb I have encountered gets close to matching this situation. Suburbs also typically require cars, something I don't own and never want to own. I don't want a backyard either as that just means another thing to maintain against entropy! All of this to say, it depends on what you value :)
        • mrgordon 6y ago
          Yeah I’m not sure why people don’t get that walking past the climbing gym, a hundred varied restaurants, and a wide assortment of local shops on the way home is different than driving 20 minutes to go eat or go to the gym. My complaint about all these articles is prices have barely changed in NY and SF but they all like to proclaim some huge shift. Every time I check to see if there really are major discounts and I’m disappointed.
          • Nursie 6y ago
            I think people get it, but they also get that in lockdown these benefits disappear. There was an interesting article in the guardian newspaper early in the UK lockdown that looked at the implicit social contract in city life - I may live in a small apartment, perhaps even sharing it with several others, but that is less important when the city is outside my door, it's just somewhere to sleep. If the city effectively ceases to be outside your door for weeks or months, you may decide that having a bigger place of your own with your own outdoor space is actually a pretty good prospect. And that thought may not go away even when things open up again.
  • deleted 6y ago
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  • dangus 6y ago
    I don't live in NYC, but I can advocate for the weird idea that the city actually has much more enjoyable COVID-friendly people-friendly spaces than the suburbs. The retail businesses in the city are open, with precautions, just like in the suburbs. That isn't really a difference. The difference is that shops and restaurants in the city were more plentiful and better to begin with. Now, try getting food (restaurant or grocery) delivery for a reasonable price in your typical suburb. Suburban folks didn't get stuff delivered before COVID, they hopped in their car. Many suburbs and exurbs don't really do delivery outside of your typical pizza places, and if they do they cost a lot for each delivery. I know a more rural friend who constantly has delivery apps cancel due to a lack of available drivers. The city already had the delivery advantage in the first place, which is in turn a COVID advantage. I know people who get delivery for 100% of their goods and don't own a car at all, and these deliveries were far cheaper than the suburbs due to the density. Not only that, when the only safe thing to do is go outside, I think the city wins, at least for me. City dwellers already walk and go outside more than people in the suburbs. In contrast, my relatives in the suburbs and exurbs can't really go on walks outside of their sub-development because the sidewalks disappear and it turns into a 55-mph zone.
• randycupertino 6y ago
  > who are very much not doing as well mentally and are looking forward to being back in the city. Why do you think they're not doing as well mentally? Isolation? Lack of things to do? I've noticed that the pandemic really emphasizes my relationships with my neighbors. We've never been so close, and now all of our world is smaller, so we're talking a lot more from our balconies, sharing recipes and planting tips. It's nice but certainly a throwback to older times where you knew all of your neighbors.
  • adjkant 6y ago
    Your suggestions mostly hit it. When you're used to constantly meeting friends in the city, it's a drastic social life change. I think also many people who enjoy cities like high levels of stimulation, and the suburbs simply don't offer as much. I'm thinking museums and events and the like. So even in the city, people will still struggle on that end. So basically yeah, I suspect lack of things to do in those cases. FWIW, I'm actually not interacting much with neighbors but I'm glad to hear you are and would not be surprised to find a macro increase in that right now. Interesting to see how people are adapting in different ways!
• spamizbad 6y ago
  To add to your point: my friends in the suburbs aren’t weathering the pandemic any better than my city dwelling friends. Even my more rural friends are complaining because their communities are now overrun with people heading up to their cabin, with hunting/fishing/outdoor/firearms stuff all being hard to find and expensive due to increased demand. And they probably have reason to be scared because high quality medical care is scarcer and further away so their healthcare networks are at greater risk of being overrun
• jasode 6y ago
  >there are two distinct groups of people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. I don't think it's as simple as one group replacing another so it's a wash. I don't know if the WSJ article dives into it but cities seem to care what type of workers they attract because higher-salaried employees (e.g. tech workers) provide a higher tax base. This was demonstrated by various cities falling over themselves trying to attract Amazon's HQ2 with the promise of high tech jobs. Cities aren't on a public campaign to attract more bohemian artists. It's the high tech workers that are currently more desirable. If tech workers exodus of San Francisco is a real sustained phenomenon, are the replacement workers' taxable income higher/lower/same? Since you envisioned lower prices for housing, doesn't that mean it would be caused by lower income workers?
  • adjkant 6y ago
    I don't think it's going to be a wash, or prices wouldn't fall. You're right that this will decrease tax bases, so I guess the real question is "by how much?". Only time will tell what that looks like, but I think that will lead more to rebudgeting/allocating than just objective negative losses. Your specific examples are interesting though, as NYC's population explicitly rejected Amazon's HQ2 with public backlash. NYC has always been defined by being a city of many industries, both white collar and creative. The day that's not true is the day NYC is no longer NYC. I think SF is a great example of what that looks like if you even compare SF of 2000 to 2020. I was between the two cities when I graduated college, and the diversity of industries is one of the main reasons I chose NYC. I don't want to be socially surrounded by my day job. NYC has gotten along just fine without having a large tech worker population (in terms of percentages), and there are also plenty of tech workers like me that are staying. While some of my coworkers have moved since pandemic, most have not and are still contributing to NYC taxes you're concerned with. These are all open questions that we need to answer, but the reason I look at this as a good thing still is that as a lover of cities, I'd much rather have these new issues. The mass influx of tech and wealth that cities have struggled with in the past 5+ years were/are eroding many of the things that define the actual cores of said cities, and when that's complete, you end up with more unhappy people on all sides. SF is certainly the closest to that point, and this exodus, if real, just might give it a chance to be saved.
• deleted 6y ago
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• jariel 6y ago
  ? There are plenty of cities to move to that are not SF or NYC and I bet the vast majority of those bailing SF are moving to other urban areas.
  • adjkant 6y ago
    If you dig into the comments, it seems the anecdotal evidence isn't pointing that way, but more towards suburban living. That said, to address the main issue: > There are plenty of cities to move to that are not SF or NYC If you are a city lover of my ilk, in the US, there are actually quite few options that hold the same traits beyond these two. Seattle, Chicago, Boston, and LA would be maybe the other four. For reference, those values generally would be things like good public transit / lack of car need, high density of food and cultures, walkability, arts/culture scenes (many museums, local art scenes, local music scenes), etc. That's not to say you can't find mini versions of these among a set of 10-20 smaller US cities, but for those who primarily value these things, options are actually quite limited and thats IMO one of the big reasons we see huge rising city prices as the group who has these values grow. It's a supply problem. My theory is that if smaller cities started invested in public transit projects, that alone could alleviate some of the crazy city pricing we see today.
• Nursie 6y ago
  > the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. I think it's short sighted to think that Covid won't impact on the numbers of the latter, who may re-evaluate whether they actually love big cities at all. I also think that these categories are not fixed, I have been in both, and Covid may alter the dynamics of how many change between which groups and at what ages.
• andreilys 6y ago
  > “ Even in the limited state, so many things I have access to simply wouldn't be in other areas“ Such as? I genuinely don’t see any appeal in living in a city during a global pandemic when there are massive restrictions on what you can do. Yes pre-covid the appeal of a City was great. But post covid? I think you get a lot more bang for your buck outside of the city (I.e. living in Tahoe or even smaller cities like San Diego) SF is also incredibly dysfunctional as a city. Walking down market street can be traumatic and disheartening. It truly boggles the mind that the local government does nothing to help the situation and often puts policies in place that exacerbate the situation.
  • adjkant 6y ago
    See this thread + some other replies, but it seems I'm far from alone on this one: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24180321 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24180321
    • andreilys 6y ago
      So delivery food and an outdoor rock climbing gym. None of these are exclusive to living in NYC/SF. You can learn to cook (or hell even hire your own private chef with the money you save) while living near an actual mountain with much better rock climbing capabilities and ample access to rock climbing coaches.
      • adjkant 6y ago
        I've said this there, but your solutions are highlighting that its a question of values. None of your suggestions actually sate what I value in those things. I'm not looking for a personal chef or climbing coach, I'm looking for the culture that surrounds both of these things. I want to work through climbing problems with other people. I want the people that created the food to be supported by the food I eat. I'm not someone who wants to live in nature, I actually do prefer a city with access to groomed nature. No, that's not everyone, and that's okay! But it's many people who enjoy and stay in major cities.
      • watwut 6y ago
• Spooky23 6y ago
  I love NYC and although work and life took me elsewhere I have lots of family and friends who live there and spend a fair amount of time there. The city will survive, but the coming years will be tough. It’s not as diversified economy as it once was, and the financial underpinnings of NY state and city are very much tied to a pretty shockingly small number of people. You might say “government? Whatevs”, but remember that things like Medicaid keep the wheels on the NYC bus so to speak, and the city and state fund half of that. Be careful what you wish for. If the gentrified tech and finance bros pull out, the city is going to be well fucked.
• rcpt 6y ago
  > as someone in NYC NYC is a legit megacity - New York has been described as the cultural, financial, and media capital of the world. SF is small by comparison. Only a small portion of SF is walkable and even then the blocks are long. Transit is sparse and dirty and most people end up owning cars. Despite this housing is more expensive than NYC. Unless you think it's reasonable to pay $4k a month for a one bedroom in Indianapolis it doesn't make sense to stay in SF.
  • throwaway713 6y ago
    Except San Francisco has nature (and even more nature close by) which makes all the difference to me. The few times I’ve been in NYC, I found the sheer amount of gray concrete and steel to be unnerving and dystopian; I’m legitimately amazed that humans can live in such an environment for so long without becoming depressed. That’s not to disparage the city or people who like it; there’s just many of us who need at least some amount of natural beauty (and I don’t mean Central Park).
    • ghaff 6y ago
      Yes. It's really the combination of climate (usually) and relatively easy access to water, mountains, etc. that set San Francisco apart. IMO, anyone who lives in SF and basically never leaves the city except maybe to work is passing up the main compensation for its high housing prices and many problems. Take away its setting and it's pretty unremarkable. [ADDED: OK. Not really fair but what make SF unique is very tied into its geography.]
      • brendawalsh 6y ago
        I was there a few years ago, and saw several homes built in the same era as mine, 1908. I live in a rural city and paid less than $150k, I saw the equivalent home in SF for $9mil. Location matters for sure.
    • heavyset_go 6y ago
      In NYC, you're a short train or ferry ride away from an abundance of nature.
• elevenoh 6y ago
  >These HN comments don't seem to grasp that there are two distinct groups of people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. Exactly. And it seems well planned cities with outdoors/health/lifestyle perks are extremely attractive to these folks who love cities right now (as opposed to polluted concrete rat race). Will be interesting when nightlife/irl events resume. FOMO to reconnect irl on the horizon?
• mapgrep 6y ago
  This is a really great point. People are now more able to exercise location preferences separately from work preferences. This will allow people to leave who didn’t have that choice before and to enter the city (or re-enter) who did not have that choice before. What’s interesting to me is who must remain in the city. Obviously you have hands-on essential workers who tend to be poorly paid. But I think long term you will also have some of the best paid people in the city required to remain - managers and executives and anyone else for whom communication is a voluminous and essential part of their job. There really is no substitute for face to face when it comes to quality and once the pandemic is history these people will be back at the office. Paul Krugman had an interesting video he made shortly after the pandemic pointing out that companies had already begun moving certain workers out of the expensive cities long before this. They figured out they could move, say, the HR department from Manhattan to New Jersey. IT services going to suburbs or even offshore (except for some people on site to be hands on). With tech companies you tended to see this with functions that for better or worse they valued less (for example content moderators). This will continue. Now we see mainline engineers (who are definitely valued) allowed to leave, because communication is less important for their job than for a manager (even one at same salary level like a PM). But a lot of people will remain or come to cities. And I think it’s worth noting that those folks are probably less likely to make any moves right now than the people moving out. Moving out reduces economic risk in the short term. Moving somewhere more expensive is something people will put off until there is more certainty. But rents will spike up at some point as people who like or need cities make their move (I am not saying they will return to prior levels though).
• jessriedel 6y ago
  > the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. The housing supply is essentially fixed in the short and medium term, so we will mostly see an equilibriation in prices to keep them mostly full. So it's trivially true that some people will move in as prices fall. However, it's mistaken to think that all the people were in the city but now are leaving were there for jobs. There is a large population of folks who work south of SF, who moved there (and reverse commute) for the benefits of city living, but have now left because those benefits are largely absent with the pandemic.
• vmception 6y ago
  > and I know many people who moved away temporarily for economic reasons who are very much not doing as well mentally and are looking forward to being back in the city. The same has happened in SF. I've gotten many women to come back to the city because they were going crazy in whatever part of the frontier they ventured out into, or even worse: being an adult at their parent's house in Bumbawhat, USA. Many people find the value systems and insensitivities in the rest of the country to be completely foreign and shocking. So they are looking for any excuse to be back here, even if just to visit someone. > COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. That doesn't offset housing/rental price drop. Not that you claimed it did, just pointing that out.
• nxc18 6y ago
  I’m desperate at this point to move from my middle of nowhere socal “city” of <100k people to an actual city now that prices are falling and I can work remote. My goal is to get it all sorted by November. My only activities right now are eating out and walking, so cities are actually still very appealing - lots of places to walk to and lots of restaurant options. And some day, maybe 8 or 9 months from now, I might even be able to go to a museum. I love museums and most cities seem to be full of them.