two separate factors here - in isolation, i'd stay at $startup for $200k for another 1.5-2 years, with a 0% chance of acquisition in isolation, but not if it me

two separate factors here - in isolation, i'd stay at $startup for $200k for another 1.5-2 years, with a 0% chance of acquisition in isolation, but not if it meant giving up a dream job with $co. i'd take a $30k difference in pay to join $co just because it's getting me on the right track for what i want to be doing with my life. and, of course, if we were definitely getting acquired i'd give up the job and stick around for the payoff (~ 2M with a little luck). it's when probabilities come into the mix that my head starts hurting - i think i don't really have the gambling instinct, and if i were deciding this on pure emotion i think i'd just leave, but i'm trying to do the intelligent thing here.