4 ms·

So many people are hiring, this is a good time to be a developer! Big companies and startups alike.

by trorer 16y ago

cageface 16y ago
Makes me a bit uncomfortable. I hope this doesn't play out like 1997-2000 and trash the job market for several years again.
- chc 16y ago
  The problem in 1997-2000 was idiotic investment, not a strong job market. Amazon wasn't one of those overvalued companies then, and I certainly don't think it's overvalued now.
  - helmut_hed 16y ago
    They may not have been "overvalued" then, in hindsight, but they quickly became even less overvalued, dropping from over 100 in late 1999 to below 10 in late 2001.
    - waterlesscloud 16y ago
      Indeed. AMZN was my major stock loss in those years.
  - ktsmith 16y ago
    There were more than enough crappy dot com companies hiring executive chefs turned "programmers" after taking a community college class on MS Front Page to say that the job market was also inflated. The number of unqualified people that were employed in some type of IT position during the boom was very apparent to anyone that had to deal with filtering resumes during the beginning of the bust.
    - cageface 16y ago
      It was a weird time. I remember briefly feeling like a celebrity at parties when I said I was a programmer. All kinds of people that had never expressed an interest in software before were suddenly chasing after tech certifications.
- ChuckMcM 16y ago
  Yes and no. Developer shortages are caused by company creation outpacing new developers entering the market. Generally its a leading indicator of growth, and precedes an inflationary trend in salaries. If the increase in startups is do to economic expansion around new markets, then the overall increase in jobs can be durable in the sense that they are for viable businesses. If it turns out that the creation of startups is due to rampant speculation from capitol chasing better returns in an irrational way, then the jobs will disappear again when the market corrects. So far, in this 'extremely reminiscent of previous bubble' non-bubble expansion, the source of capital has been, in theory, from investors who are making risk / value assessments in line with information about the business models they are investing in. However, there is also evidence to suggest that people who have acquired excess capital but did not experience, nor learn the lessons of, that previous bubble, are in the process of redistributing their new found wealth in unsound ways. As the previous explosion lasted about 6 years ('95 with 'Netscape' to '01 with 'nuclear winter'), and it was sustained in part by the unbridled enthusiasm of untrained investors, investing in IPOs. If this particular trend continues with simply VC/Angel money we should no in a shorter period whether or not the expansion is durable or illusory. Check back in 2015, you'll know if it was like 99 or not.
  - bugsy 16y ago
    Gosh that is an extremely nice post. Very rational and puts in words a lot of good points clearly and concisely. Please make more of them, your contributions raise the bar here.

So many people are hiring, this is a good time to be a developer! Big companies and startups alike.

by trorer 16y ago

So many people are hiring, this is a good time to be a developer! Big companies and startups alike.

Makes me a bit uncomfortable. I hope this doesn't play out like 1997-2000 and trash the job market for several years again.

chc 16y ago
The problem in 1997-2000 was idiotic investment, not a strong job market. Amazon wasn't one of those overvalued companies then, and I certainly don't think it's overvalued now.
- helmut_hed 16y ago
  They may not have been "overvalued" then, in hindsight, but they quickly became even less overvalued, dropping from over 100 in late 1999 to below 10 in late 2001.
  - waterlesscloud 16y ago
    Indeed. AMZN was my major stock loss in those years.
- ktsmith 16y ago
  There were more than enough crappy dot com companies hiring executive chefs turned "programmers" after taking a community college class on MS Front Page to say that the job market was also inflated. The number of unqualified people that were employed in some type of IT position during the boom was very apparent to anyone that had to deal with filtering resumes during the beginning of the bust.
  - cageface 16y ago
    It was a weird time. I remember briefly feeling like a celebrity at parties when I said I was a programmer. All kinds of people that had never expressed an interest in software before were suddenly chasing after tech certifications.
ChuckMcM 16y ago
Yes and no. Developer shortages are caused by company creation outpacing new developers entering the market. Generally its a leading indicator of growth, and precedes an inflationary trend in salaries. If the increase in startups is do to economic expansion around new markets, then the overall increase in jobs can be durable in the sense that they are for viable businesses. If it turns out that the creation of startups is due to rampant speculation from capitol chasing better returns in an irrational way, then the jobs will disappear again when the market corrects. So far, in this 'extremely reminiscent of previous bubble' non-bubble expansion, the source of capital has been, in theory, from investors who are making risk / value assessments in line with information about the business models they are investing in. However, there is also evidence to suggest that people who have acquired excess capital but did not experience, nor learn the lessons of, that previous bubble, are in the process of redistributing their new found wealth in unsound ways. As the previous explosion lasted about 6 years ('95 with 'Netscape' to '01 with 'nuclear winter'), and it was sustained in part by the unbridled enthusiasm of untrained investors, investing in IPOs. If this particular trend continues with simply VC/Angel money we should no in a shorter period whether or not the expansion is durable or illusory. Check back in 2015, you'll know if it was like 99 or not.
- bugsy 16y ago
  Gosh that is an extremely nice post. Very rational and puts in words a lot of good points clearly and concisely. Please make more of them, your contributions raise the bar here.