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that's the rub - i'd be perfectly happy working at $co for what they've offered me, and getting a regular annual raise, and i wouldn't stay at $startup at all,

that's the rub - i'd be perfectly happy working at $co for what they've offered me, and getting a regular annual raise, and i wouldn't stay at $startup at all, without the prospect of an acquisition, even though they're (now) offering me a good bit more than $co. the probability of being acquired is essentially the carrot, and the founder talks as though it's practically a certainty, but he's the overoptimistic sort. the problem is that i pretty much have no insight into the business/financial aspect of things, and therefore have no real way of judging the probabilities myself. i'm actually not very motivated by money, but when the numbers get high enough they have a way of distorting reality around them.

tgrass 16y ago
We may not be motivated by money, but we all have our price. Would you happily stay at $startup for $200K a year with a 0% chance of acquisition? How about $100K with a 50% chance of acquisition? Put some numbers to it and you might find you already know the answer.
- throwaway_alt 16y ago
  two separate factors here - in isolation, i'd stay at $startup for $200k for another 1.5-2 years, with a 0% chance of acquisition in isolation, but not if it meant giving up a dream job with $co. i'd take a $30k difference in pay to join $co just because it's getting me on the right track for what i want to be doing with my life. and, of course, if we were definitely getting acquired i'd give up the job and stick around for the payoff (~ 2M with a little luck). it's when probabilities come into the mix that my head starts hurting - i think i don't really have the gambling instinct, and if i were deciding this on pure emotion i think i'd just leave, but i'm trying to do the intelligent thing here.
- tgrass 16y ago
  n= the number of years you'd work at $co $requiredCoSalary = the least amount per year you'd need to work at $co (negative if you'd pay to work there) $offeredCoSalary = their offer $requiredStartupSalary = the amount they'd have to pay to keep you if there was no acquisition on the table $offeredStartupSalary = ... E(ROI)=probability of acquisition times the $ of acquisition If [n($offeredCoSalary-$requiredCoSalary)]-[n($requiredStartupSalary-$offeredStartupSalary)]>E(ROI) then take the $co job. (Sorry for formatting - typed on phone)
  - throwaway_alt 16y ago
    interesting way to look at it - forces me to make a realistic estimate of E(ROI)

tgrass 16y ago

We may not be motivated by money, but we all have our price. Would you happily stay at $startup for $200K a year with a 0% chance of acquisition? How about $100K with a 50% chance of acquisition? Put some numbers to it and you might find you already know the answer.

throwaway_alt 16y ago
two separate factors here - in isolation, i'd stay at $startup for $200k for another 1.5-2 years, with a 0% chance of acquisition in isolation, but not if it meant giving up a dream job with $co. i'd take a $30k difference in pay to join $co just because it's getting me on the right track for what i want to be doing with my life. and, of course, if we were definitely getting acquired i'd give up the job and stick around for the payoff (~ 2M with a little luck). it's when probabilities come into the mix that my head starts hurting - i think i don't really have the gambling instinct, and if i were deciding this on pure emotion i think i'd just leave, but i'm trying to do the intelligent thing here.
tgrass 16y ago
n= the number of years you'd work at $co $requiredCoSalary = the least amount per year you'd need to work at $co (negative if you'd pay to work there) $offeredCoSalary = their offer $requiredStartupSalary = the amount they'd have to pay to keep you if there was no acquisition on the table $offeredStartupSalary = ... E(ROI)=probability of acquisition times the $ of acquisition If [n($offeredCoSalary-$requiredCoSalary)]-[n($requiredStartupSalary-$offeredStartupSalary)]>E(ROI) then take the $co job. (Sorry for formatting - typed on phone)
- throwaway_alt 16y ago
  interesting way to look at it - forces me to make a realistic estimate of E(ROI)