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There’s no evidence that a strict lockdown for several weeks can practically eliminate coronavirus indefinitely without perfect control over a non-permiable bor
by zaroth 6y ago
There’s no evidence that a strict lockdown for several weeks can practically eliminate coronavirus indefinitely without perfect control over a non-permiable border.
As soon as people (or even goods) can move freely across the border of your strictly locked down area you’re back to positive cases spreading through a susceptible population.
- gregoriol 6y agoThat's called summer and holidays here in europe. The result is not good.
- gnat 6y agoThe three essentials: strong borders, lots of testing & tracing, and social distancing (including masks). I've read epidemiologists saying that there's kinda a CAP theorem for epidemiology. Namely, you can trade off one if you're strong on the others: if you're going to have a greater risk of letting it in from weak border controls, then you have to make it hard to catch (distancing) and detect & eliminate it fast when it shows up (testing & tracing). Similarly, if you don't want distance then you've got to be very strong keeping it out and finding it if it shows up. And if you're slack on testing & tracing, then be extremely vigilant on not getting it in the first place.