3 ms·

This was written a day ago and it's annoying to see the author state "cases are only going up" when it has been widely reported that the number of cases in Vict

by fblp 6y ago

This was written a day ago and it's annoying to see the author state "cases are only going up" when it has been widely reported that the number of cases in Victoria peaked around a week ago - thanks to the strict lockdown. Victoria is also unique in that it is the only state in Australia with a large outbreak. The government has huge economic and social incentives to contain it. Victoria charts: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ten-graphs-that-show-victoria-s-coronavirus-trends-20200709-p55ajk.html https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ten-graphs-that-... I'm sorry that the writer is suffering, but as an Australian living in the US id prefer to undergo several weeks of draconian lockdown enforced by the police that could practically eliminate coroanavirus rather than what is probably going to be at least 12 months of restrictions in the US, and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

zaroth 6y ago
There’s no evidence that a strict lockdown for several weeks can practically eliminate coronavirus indefinitely without perfect control over a non-permiable border. As soon as people (or even goods) can move freely across the border of your strictly locked down area you’re back to positive cases spreading through a susceptible population.
- gregoriol 6y ago
  That's called summer and holidays here in europe. The result is not good.
- gnat 6y ago
  The three essentials: strong borders, lots of testing & tracing, and social distancing (including masks). I've read epidemiologists saying that there's kinda a CAP theorem for epidemiology. Namely, you can trade off one if you're strong on the others: if you're going to have a greater risk of letting it in from weak border controls, then you have to make it hard to catch (distancing) and detect & eliminate it fast when it shows up (testing & tracing). Similarly, if you don't want distance then you've got to be very strong keeping it out and finding it if it shows up. And if you're slack on testing & tracing, then be extremely vigilant on not getting it in the first place.

by fblp 6y ago

zaroth 6y ago

There’s no evidence that a strict lockdown for several weeks can practically eliminate coronavirus indefinitely without perfect control over a non-permiable border. As soon as people (or even goods) can move freely across the border of your strictly locked down area you’re back to positive cases spreading through a susceptible population.

gregoriol 6y ago
That's called summer and holidays here in europe. The result is not good.
gnat 6y ago
The three essentials: strong borders, lots of testing & tracing, and social distancing (including masks). I've read epidemiologists saying that there's kinda a CAP theorem for epidemiology. Namely, you can trade off one if you're strong on the others: if you're going to have a greater risk of letting it in from weak border controls, then you have to make it hard to catch (distancing) and detect & eliminate it fast when it shows up (testing & tracing). Similarly, if you don't want distance then you've got to be very strong keeping it out and finding it if it shows up. And if you're slack on testing & tracing, then be extremely vigilant on not getting it in the first place.