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> 10% decrease in grain yield Wikipedia has a good article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_

by jlebar 6y ago

> 10% decrease in grain yield Wikipedia has a good article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture One thing to consider when you're reading anything about the predicted effects of climate change: The effects will not be uniform in space or time. For example, warming itself has been highly nonuniform. It's not that every day, every location on earth is X degrees warmer. Rather, that's an average; some days in some places are a lot hotter, and on other days in other places, it's less hot. This means that in addition to the average temperature increasing, extremes are also more common (has to be). See the first picture at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming, or this video: https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/139/video-global-warming-from-1880-to-2019/ https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/139/video-global-... I expect that "10% decrease in average [time and space] grain yields" would also be spiky, in time and space. That means some places and times will experience significantly more than a 10% drop.

cel1ne 6y ago
> For example, warming itself has been highly nonuniform. It's not that every day, every location on earth is X degrees warmer. What is happening is this: For a location and a time somewhere on earth plot a curve depicting the probability of it's temperature. The highest point in the middle is the average, typical temperature for that day, but of course there are less probable outliers left and right, like in a normal distribution. What climate change does is a) it flattens that curve, meaning more varying temperatures, unusually hot or unusually cold days, become more likely and b) it moves that entire curve to the right, so that the average overall temperature becomes hotter, even though there are more cold outlier-days than before.

by jlebar 6y ago

cel1ne 6y ago

> For example, warming itself has been highly nonuniform. It's not that every day, every location on earth is X degrees warmer. What is happening is this: For a location and a time somewhere on earth plot a curve depicting the probability of it's temperature. The highest point in the middle is the average, typical temperature for that day, but of course there are less probable outliers left and right, like in a normal distribution. What climate change does is a) it flattens that curve, meaning more varying temperatures, unusually hot or unusually cold days, become more likely and b) it moves that entire curve to the right, so that the average overall temperature becomes hotter, even though there are more cold outlier-days than before.