> whether they still believe he hasn't absorbed Taleb's critique. No. Taleb's an idiot, he just does psychobabble. Silver knows that. I can't find the data bu

> whether they still believe he hasn't absorbed Taleb's critique. No. Taleb's an idiot, he just does psychobabble. Silver knows that. I can't find the data but I think 3 months ago Trump would have won going off polls. So clearly in 3 months he could win again. We are in a period of huge variability. For instance Biden gets the coronavirus is a 10% chance he'll die. 10% chance he can't run in the election. Biden can't keep away from people, it'll could drain the polling numbers, he'll have to mix. CNN hinted the VP is very important this election. Silver also knows he stuffed up last time, from everyone commenting. 30% is be a good face saving estimate at this point in time, he easily can up or lower it as the election comes closer. Nothing to do with Taleb. [edit] > "The explanation is given that the election is in the future, and therefore there is future uncertainty. This is well known and always accounted for, along with known polling and mail-in biases etc. What's less well know is how to do this accurately, knowing Taleb I'd guess he's pretends to know this with a vague statement. I'm not sure what he actually said?