4 ms·

The US does have a lot of people in rural areas where 5G coverage won't be good. And even if you have good 4G coverage, take take a look at the 4G home internet

The US does have a lot of people in rural areas where 5G coverage won't be good. And even if you have good 4G coverage, take take a look at the 4G home internet plans from Verizon: https://www.verizonwireless.com/home-services/lte-internet-installed/ https://www.verizonwireless.com/home-services/lte-internet-i... For $60/month you get 10 GB of data. For $150 you can go up to 40 GB. Overage is billed at $10 for each additional 1GB. If I did my math right, at 12 Mbps you can chew through the largest monthly data allotment in under 8 hours. In practical terms, for $150/month you can't even download one AAA game, and even if you buy all your games on disc you'll probably still go over the data cap just downloading mandatory updates. Starlink hasn't said anything about data caps yet, but there's plenty of room to compete with terrestrial broadband providers on things other than download speed.

gamblor956 6y ago
I get that people are placing their internet hopes and dreams on Starlink being cheap, but the financials they've provided just don't work out to them being any cheaper than any existing ISP unless (a) Starlink receives massive government subsidies (b) signs up a fuckton of commercial partners/sponsors, or (c) runs the network at a huge loss.
- wlesieutre 6y ago
  They've provided financials?
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    They've indicated that each satellite costs about $250K to build, and launch costs per satellite are about $500K. Each satellite lasts 5 years. Each satellite gets 50Gbps (25Gbps actual since you have to go up & down). They haven't released base station costs, but there are some estimates that it'll be about $2K per. The other big unknown is the utilization factor. It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models.
    - gamblor956 6y ago
      It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models. At $2000 just to buy in to the system, they've cut off a huge chunk of their purported market. Unless they plan on using unicorn accounting again, it's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and show SpaceX even making its money back on the first wave of satellite launches unless they dominate the rural ISP market. In order to just break even on fixed and operational costs they'd need to charge at least as much as existing rural ISPs, and if they charge significantly more they won't acquire significant market share because their are faster options available at higher pricepoints that aren't susceptible to the weather. And most of those alternatives have roughly the same buy-in costs if SpaceX actually plans on making customers pay $2000 for a base station. And then they'd need to do it all over again in 5 years when they have to replace their satellites.

gamblor956 6y ago

I get that people are placing their internet hopes and dreams on Starlink being cheap, but the financials they've provided just don't work out to them being any cheaper than any existing ISP unless (a) Starlink receives massive government subsidies (b) signs up a fuckton of commercial partners/sponsors, or (c) runs the network at a huge loss.

wlesieutre 6y ago
They've provided financials?
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  They've indicated that each satellite costs about $250K to build, and launch costs per satellite are about $500K. Each satellite lasts 5 years. Each satellite gets 50Gbps (25Gbps actual since you have to go up & down). They haven't released base station costs, but there are some estimates that it'll be about $2K per. The other big unknown is the utilization factor. It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models.
  - gamblor956 6y ago
    It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models. At $2000 just to buy in to the system, they've cut off a huge chunk of their purported market. Unless they plan on using unicorn accounting again, it's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and show SpaceX even making its money back on the first wave of satellite launches unless they dominate the rural ISP market. In order to just break even on fixed and operational costs they'd need to charge at least as much as existing rural ISPs, and if they charge significantly more they won't acquire significant market share because their are faster options available at higher pricepoints that aren't susceptible to the weather. And most of those alternatives have roughly the same buy-in costs if SpaceX actually plans on making customers pay $2000 for a base station. And then they'd need to do it all over again in 5 years when they have to replace their satellites.