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I think people look too much at our recent ills and project that to their view of American's place in the world. When looking at things with a historic perspect

I think people look too much at our recent ills and project that to their view of American's place in the world. When looking at things with a historic perspective, I think it's hard not to see that we may be at a period where the American century is just getting started. The US still has a lot of advantages. The best geography in the world for food, energy, transport, physical security. The best security apparatus. Favorable demographics. The largest group of dynamic and diverse people and economy in the world. Outside of North America, the American system does not need trade with the wider world to survive and prosper. The United States is one of the very few countries in the world that does not need to consider security(food, energy, physical, etc) when it interacts with the rest of the world. That grants it huge flexibility. The US hasn't had a coherent foreign policy for 30 years. This domestic funk may last a decade, but some day Americans will figure out what they want from the rest of the world. Until then, the rest of the world should be happy America is taking a break. I admit that I may be coming at this from too much of an American point of view.

angelbar 6y ago
Agree.... https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/21926865-the-accidental-superpower https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/21926865-the-accidental-... The democratic process is screwed in my opinion, but yes...
- sremani 6y ago
  Zeihan is Awesome. The Case against China was well articulated by him in his latest book : "Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World".
subsubzero 6y ago
Agree. If you think of a country that can dethrone the US, its really only one player, China. The other countries (Germany, Japan, Russia) are very far behind in terms of military might, commerce, and also population. Given the US also has considerable amounts of land/resources(oil, minerals, timber, farming land) and a lions share of the worlds largest companies(Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Chevron, Wal-Mart, Google, Intel, P&G, Exxon to name some) its hard to say the US is going anywhere anytime soon. I feel like a lot of this negativity right now is based on the covid-19 pandemic which btw the whole world is suffering not just the US. Think things are bad in the US? at least it didn't suffer a 20% drop in GDP like the UK did [1], sure the US has the most cases, but looking at mortality the US is roughly middle of the pack at 3.2% [2] [1] - https://www.ft.com/content/c8b172e2-8f70-4118-9e81-423e9a4b6839 https://www.ft.com/content/c8b172e2-8f70-4118-9e81-423e9a4b6... [2] - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- oarsinsync 6y ago
  Mortality as a % of diagnosed cases is a number that is easily increased or decreased by the whims of the leadership team. Ironically, the sounds coming from the President indicate that he wants to push that number up (by reducing testing). Instead, the deaths per 100k of population is a more meaningful number. Also, don't look at the pretty graphs at the top of the page on https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality, as there are a bunch of countries excluded from that (e.g. Italy, Spain, Belgium, which are all near the top of the list but not featured in the graphs). Instead, look at the table below. There's nothing 'middle of the pack' about the USA's performance. Like the UK govt likes to refer to everything they do as being 'world leading' or 'world beating', UK and USA continue to be 'world leaders' in killing off their own populations through ineffective leadership. (I've been stuck in the UK since March, unable to get back to better led lands, watching this train wreck unfold)
cactus2093 6y ago
The major thing you've left out, is for the past 100 years we've also had many of the best minds in the world. Not that Americans are smarter than anyone else, but many of the brightest and most entrepreneurial people from around the world have moved to America and done amazing things here. To me, our recent limitations on immigration are the biggest canary in the coal mine as far as how America's future may end up being less optimistic than one would expect by extrapolating from the 20th century.
- JohnBooty 6y ago
  Yes. It's funny; when people say "American ingenuity", I'm not sure what reality they're living in because it often seems like they're claiming we are somehow... inherently brilliant. Do they think we're genetically superior? Or do they think it's the water we drink? It's really a head-scratcher. As you said: the real answer is of course that we attract talent.
- crisdux 6y ago
  What are the limits on immigration you are talking about? As far as my research shows, the paths for highly educated immigrants through h1b visa, f1 visa, opt training programs and green cards is largely unchanged and have been constant or increased in recent years. The United States is still the top destination for immigrants throughout the world. The United States still accepts over 1 million new permanent residents a year. Anything done by executive action by the current administration will be undone. If you are talking about the recent halts due to the pandemic, I'm assuming those will all be temporary. I will gladly read your reply if you have a different perspective on this.
  - cactus2093 6y ago
    Yes I'm talking mostly about things done by executive action by the current administration, and during the pandemic. They may be temporary, that's why I commented that we still have some time to improve this situation before it starts compounding and becoming a lasting part of the country. I don't think anyone can say for sure that it will all be temporary, at the very least Trump could remain president another 4 years, and republicans could remain in office even beyond that in which case I don't see them repealing anything Trump has done.

angelbar 6y ago

Agree.... https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/21926865-the-accidental-superpower https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/21926865-the-accidental-... The democratic process is screwed in my opinion, but yes...

sremani 6y ago
Zeihan is Awesome. The Case against China was well articulated by him in his latest book : "Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World".

subsubzero 6y ago

Agree. If you think of a country that can dethrone the US, its really only one player, China. The other countries (Germany, Japan, Russia) are very far behind in terms of military might, commerce, and also population. Given the US also has considerable amounts of land/resources(oil, minerals, timber, farming land) and a lions share of the worlds largest companies(Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Chevron, Wal-Mart, Google, Intel, P&G, Exxon to name some) its hard to say the US is going anywhere anytime soon. I feel like a lot of this negativity right now is based on the covid-19 pandemic which btw the whole world is suffering not just the US. Think things are bad in the US? at least it didn't suffer a 20% drop in GDP like the UK did [1], sure the US has the most cases, but looking at mortality the US is roughly middle of the pack at 3.2% [2] [1] - https://www.ft.com/content/c8b172e2-8f70-4118-9e81-423e9a4b6839 https://www.ft.com/content/c8b172e2-8f70-4118-9e81-423e9a4b6... [2] - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
oarsinsync 6y ago
Mortality as a % of diagnosed cases is a number that is easily increased or decreased by the whims of the leadership team. Ironically, the sounds coming from the President indicate that he wants to push that number up (by reducing testing). Instead, the deaths per 100k of population is a more meaningful number. Also, don't look at the pretty graphs at the top of the page on https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality, as there are a bunch of countries excluded from that (e.g. Italy, Spain, Belgium, which are all near the top of the list but not featured in the graphs). Instead, look at the table below. There's nothing 'middle of the pack' about the USA's performance. Like the UK govt likes to refer to everything they do as being 'world leading' or 'world beating', UK and USA continue to be 'world leaders' in killing off their own populations through ineffective leadership. (I've been stuck in the UK since March, unable to get back to better led lands, watching this train wreck unfold)

cactus2093 6y ago

The major thing you've left out, is for the past 100 years we've also had many of the best minds in the world. Not that Americans are smarter than anyone else, but many of the brightest and most entrepreneurial people from around the world have moved to America and done amazing things here. To me, our recent limitations on immigration are the biggest canary in the coal mine as far as how America's future may end up being less optimistic than one would expect by extrapolating from the 20th century.

JohnBooty 6y ago
Yes. It's funny; when people say "American ingenuity", I'm not sure what reality they're living in because it often seems like they're claiming we are somehow... inherently brilliant. Do they think we're genetically superior? Or do they think it's the water we drink? It's really a head-scratcher. As you said: the real answer is of course that we attract talent.
crisdux 6y ago
What are the limits on immigration you are talking about? As far as my research shows, the paths for highly educated immigrants through h1b visa, f1 visa, opt training programs and green cards is largely unchanged and have been constant or increased in recent years. The United States is still the top destination for immigrants throughout the world. The United States still accepts over 1 million new permanent residents a year. Anything done by executive action by the current administration will be undone. If you are talking about the recent halts due to the pandemic, I'm assuming those will all be temporary. I will gladly read your reply if you have a different perspective on this.
- cactus2093 6y ago
  Yes I'm talking mostly about things done by executive action by the current administration, and during the pandemic. They may be temporary, that's why I commented that we still have some time to improve this situation before it starts compounding and becoming a lasting part of the country. I don't think anyone can say for sure that it will all be temporary, at the very least Trump could remain president another 4 years, and republicans could remain in office even beyond that in which case I don't see them repealing anything Trump has done.