6 ms·
Man, this is very tough. I think the problem is (and I very much hope I am wrong!) that an outbreak will occur and your university will still have the financial
by jmull 6y ago
Man, this is very tough. I think the problem is (and I very much hope I am wrong!) that an outbreak will occur and your university will still have the financial problems. And also some more sick and dead people.
(All from a US perspective)
There's been a crazy notion floating around from the start on this, that we can either keep our normal activities/economy (jobs, businesses, schools, etc) or deal with the pandemic.
However, you can't have anything normal unless the pandemic is under control. Because until it is, so many kinds of normal activities will be hit by an outbreak, and then your normal activity will fall apart and stop.
I think we could have had school this fall. But it would have meant much more serious efforts months ago, building up our fast testing capabilities, a commitment to ongoing mask, social distancing, and other mechanisms to control the spread (mandates, really).
- impendia 6y agoI mostly agree. But I have not sensed -- at all -- that there is any "we", that Americans have or will come together to reach a common decision.
- mensetmanusman 6y agoNope, even with 100% lockdown, it still spreads because we aren’t an island country. It even got to Auckland now, through freight! You can only delay the inevitable (unless a vaccine is developed in the next few months)
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- darkwizard42 6y agoYeah you aren't trying to get it to 0% rate... you are trying to reduce it to a traceable and manageable amount... Kind of missing the point of what it means to "get it under control"
- monadic2 6y ago0% sounds pretty good to me....
- tikwidd 6y agoWe don't know that it was from freight. In fact, it is still considered highly unlikely that it came in via freight. Read about 'flattening the curve'.
- jmull 6y agoThis isn’t a binary thing: spread or no spread. You will have spread no matter what you do. The question is how much. If prevalence of the virus is high, then the risk of spread is higher. At a high level of prevalence any systematically repeating and mixing groupings of people (such as school) is pretty much guaranteed to lead to an outbreak, which will stop or at least seriously disrupt and hinder that system (not to mention the sick and dead people from the outbreak). At a low level or prevalence outbreaks will still occur, but only here and there. Some schools will have outbreaks and have to stop, but most will be able to keep going. Widely available tests with fast turnaround is also part of this because it allows outbreaks to be detected earlier, when they are much smaller, which limits the disruption each outbreak causes (not to mention the deaths and sickness). The point of all this is to have most of our normal activities and economy until a safe and effective vaccine is widely available.
- dehrmann 6y ago> through freight Did they confirm this? I could also see issues with someone asymptomatic who was quarantined, but was at the 99th percentile for incubation period. With an R0 near 1, with enough people, you could miss the virus for even a few months. It's really hard to contain, and NZ will likely be dealing with case like this on and off until there's a vaccine.
- andrei_says_ 6y agoWe are always 6 weeks away from practically ending the pandemic nationwide... If we were capable of a massive, coordinated collaborative effort.