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Evidence from other countries suggests that there is no way of getting this under control and returning to normal, and it wouldn't save the economy anyway. Euro

by makomk 6y ago

Evidence from other countries suggests that there is no way of getting this under control and returning to normal, and it wouldn't save the economy anyway. Europe is seeing a resurgence of cases, previous success story South Korea is stuck unable to reopen without a similar resurgence and with no path to eliminating the disease, even the latest remaining success stories Vietnam and New Zealand discovered the hard way that their belief they'd eradicated the disease was an illusion after it had spread unimpeded. And even countries which have managed to dodge much of the direct economic damage have suffered a huge amount of indirect damage from the entire rest of the world shutting down. Edit: I can't reply due to rate limiting, but you can't just dismiss the resurgences of cases in Europe because the absolute number of cases is small now - this is exponential growth with a rather alarming exponent, and that always starts out small until it isn't. Remember, it takes the same amount of time to go from say 1 to 2 cases per 10k as from 15 to 30.

gibrown 6y ago
The “resurgence of cases” in these other countries are less than 1 per 10k. Florida has been having 30-40 per 10k. It isn’t binary. All economies will take a hit. But if the US was doing 30x better then the economy would be better. And if there is any seasonality at all the Fall could get quite a lot worse and make the economy worse than it already is.
- leereeves 6y ago
  > if the US was doing 30x better then the economy would be better. As a counterexample to that claim, the Euro zone GDP fell 12.1% in the second quarter. That's an annualized rate of 40%, even worse than the widely reported annualized drop of 33% in the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/euro-zone-gdp-q2-2020-as-coronavirus-crisis-hits.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/euro-zone-gdp-q2-2020-as-cor...
  - gibrown 6y ago
    US decreased 9.5%. The difference seems fairly marginal and could be affected just by timing of when the virus started. Germany though bought something with that. The interesting question will be what Q3 and Q4 looks like.

by makomk 6y ago

gibrown 6y ago

The “resurgence of cases” in these other countries are less than 1 per 10k. Florida has been having 30-40 per 10k. It isn’t binary. All economies will take a hit. But if the US was doing 30x better then the economy would be better. And if there is any seasonality at all the Fall could get quite a lot worse and make the economy worse than it already is.

leereeves 6y ago
> if the US was doing 30x better then the economy would be better. As a counterexample to that claim, the Euro zone GDP fell 12.1% in the second quarter. That's an annualized rate of 40%, even worse than the widely reported annualized drop of 33% in the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/euro-zone-gdp-q2-2020-as-coronavirus-crisis-hits.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/euro-zone-gdp-q2-2020-as-cor...
- gibrown 6y ago
  US decreased 9.5%. The difference seems fairly marginal and could be affected just by timing of when the virus started. Germany though bought something with that. The interesting question will be what Q3 and Q4 looks like.