5 ms·

> The risk due to lockdown are greater than this virus. I'm gonna have to ask for a source on this, because every single legitimate source I can find says the e

> The risk due to lockdown are greater than this virus. I'm gonna have to ask for a source on this, because every single legitimate source I can find says the exact opposite.

matz1 6y ago
Lockdown cause massive unemployment, bankruptcy, mental health issue, kids not getting proper education, delayed treatment/care for non-covid cause, etc. All this for what ? for the virus that for vast majority of people if you do get infected you are not going to be sick (asymptompatic) or only have mild symptom and less than 1% death rate ?
- jacquesm 6y ago
  There is precisely zero evidence that a lockdown leads to even a measurable fraction of 1% deaths.
  - ketamine__ 6y ago
    There is zero evidence that a suppression strategy with lockdown will work. And as you said in your other comment the pandemic is not over yet so pulling data from other countries isn't helpful. As to evidence... "One in four young adults between the ages of 18 and 24 say they've considered suicide in the past month because of the pandemic, according to new CDC data that paints a bleak picture of the nation's mental health during the crisis." https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/cdc-mental-health-pandemic-394832 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/cdc-mental-health-p... Perhaps it is time for parents to talk to their children about what they would like for a future? Most of the comments here are about the desires of the parents to be anxiety free.
    - jacquesm 6y ago
      Why is everybody going on about 'the lockdown'. There is exactly one city in the world that had a complete lockdown, that's Wuhan, China. Every other place had at best a partial lockdown with a ton of exemptions and a large amount of leeway for emergencies and other edge cases. As for the suicide factor, yes, there is a chance of increased numbers of suicides, no for now there is no proof that such an increase is actually happening. If previous pandemics - without a lockdown - are any guide then a pandemic has regardless of the measures taken an increased risk of people committing suicide.
      - matz1 6y ago
        Every country called it differently. Partial lockdown is still lockdown
        jacquesm 6y ago
        Ok, we'll call it temporary restraint of free movement. Happy now? Besides that a proportional and timely initial response would have been the very best way of avoiding all that.
        ketamine__ 6y ago
        New Zealand had what you might call a timely response. If you test positive now your entire family will be moved to an isolation facility. It is not optional and if you refuse to do so you will be arrested. > Bloomfield announced all of those who tested positive, as well as close family members who could be at risk, would now be put into self-isolation facilities. > Bloomfield said they'd given moving confirmed cases into quarantine facilities "a lot of thought". It would help prevent spread between family members and limit the spread in the community from people coming to visit. > It would "really strengthen our response", he said. [0] Are you concerned with how lockdown effects children now? [0] https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/13-new-community-cases-all-be-quarantined https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/13-new-community-cases-a...
        jacquesm 6y ago
        Of course I'm concerned. But if you think that you'll be able to manage this without some inconvenience then that is a pretty strong delusion. Think about the alternative: no quarantine, unchecked spread, lots of people dead. If there is one country that is doing this by the book it is NZ, and they should be commended for it. That you try to spin that as a negative is quite a feat. I've been quarantined myself for two weeks, it wasn't as bad as it could have been and we managed. If I had to go through it again then I would, especially now that I know better how to prepare.
- eirini1 6y ago
  >Lockdown cause massive unemployment, bankruptcy, mental health issue, kids not getting proper education, delayed treatment/care for non-covid cause, etc. a lockdown doesn't inherently cause this. These things are caused by a badly implemented lockdown, a lockdown that doesn't have measures in place to make sure people don't go bankrupt, measures to make sure people's mental health doesn't deteriorate etc.
  - matz1 6y ago
    Sure, I will totally support such implementation that neither restrict people movement nor have occupancy restriction, at least for this specific virus. If let say covid has severity of anthrax or ebola then restricting people movement maybe justifiable but not otherwise.
saddlerustle 6y ago
An analysis from the UK government [1] summarised: > Socio-economic effects are estimated to have the greatest impact on quality of life of all categories investigated, over the short and long term combined; from March 2020 to more than five years from now, the impacts of lockdown and a resulting recession are estimated to reduce England’s health by over 970,000 QALYs – the health impacts of contracting COVID-19 are still unclear in the long term, but between March 2020 and March 2021, these represent 570,000 lost QALYs. So with even all the coronavirus deaths in the UK, which had one of the highest mortality rates in the western world, the lockdown is having a bigger impact on health than the virus. This is justifiable if you believe without the lockdown orders of magnitude more people would have died. But there's reasons to believe that's not the case: some recent research suggests regions are hitting "herd immunity" at only ~20% infected with basic precautions due to cross-immunity. And indeed, Sweden which didn't do a major lockdown isn't looking much worse off than the UK when comparing excess mortality. [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

> The risk due to lockdown are greater than this virus. I'm gonna have to ask for a source on this, because every single legitimate source I can find says the exact opposite.

matz1 6y ago

Lockdown cause massive unemployment, bankruptcy, mental health issue, kids not getting proper education, delayed treatment/care for non-covid cause, etc. All this for what ? for the virus that for vast majority of people if you do get infected you are not going to be sick (asymptompatic) or only have mild symptom and less than 1% death rate ?

jacquesm 6y ago
There is precisely zero evidence that a lockdown leads to even a measurable fraction of 1% deaths.
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  There is zero evidence that a suppression strategy with lockdown will work. And as you said in your other comment the pandemic is not over yet so pulling data from other countries isn't helpful. As to evidence... "One in four young adults between the ages of 18 and 24 say they've considered suicide in the past month because of the pandemic, according to new CDC data that paints a bleak picture of the nation's mental health during the crisis." https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/cdc-mental-health-pandemic-394832 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/cdc-mental-health-p... Perhaps it is time for parents to talk to their children about what they would like for a future? Most of the comments here are about the desires of the parents to be anxiety free.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    Why is everybody going on about 'the lockdown'. There is exactly one city in the world that had a complete lockdown, that's Wuhan, China. Every other place had at best a partial lockdown with a ton of exemptions and a large amount of leeway for emergencies and other edge cases. As for the suicide factor, yes, there is a chance of increased numbers of suicides, no for now there is no proof that such an increase is actually happening. If previous pandemics - without a lockdown - are any guide then a pandemic has regardless of the measures taken an increased risk of people committing suicide.
    - matz1 6y ago
      Every country called it differently. Partial lockdown is still lockdown
      - jacquesm 6y ago
        Ok, we'll call it temporary restraint of free movement. Happy now? Besides that a proportional and timely initial response would have been the very best way of avoiding all that.
        ketamine__ 6y ago
        New Zealand had what you might call a timely response. If you test positive now your entire family will be moved to an isolation facility. It is not optional and if you refuse to do so you will be arrested. > Bloomfield announced all of those who tested positive, as well as close family members who could be at risk, would now be put into self-isolation facilities. > Bloomfield said they'd given moving confirmed cases into quarantine facilities "a lot of thought". It would help prevent spread between family members and limit the spread in the community from people coming to visit. > It would "really strengthen our response", he said. [0] Are you concerned with how lockdown effects children now? [0] https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/13-new-community-cases-all-be-quarantined https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/13-new-community-cases-a...
        jacquesm 6y ago
        Of course I'm concerned. But if you think that you'll be able to manage this without some inconvenience then that is a pretty strong delusion. Think about the alternative: no quarantine, unchecked spread, lots of people dead. If there is one country that is doing this by the book it is NZ, and they should be commended for it. That you try to spin that as a negative is quite a feat. I've been quarantined myself for two weeks, it wasn't as bad as it could have been and we managed. If I had to go through it again then I would, especially now that I know better how to prepare.
eirini1 6y ago
>Lockdown cause massive unemployment, bankruptcy, mental health issue, kids not getting proper education, delayed treatment/care for non-covid cause, etc. a lockdown doesn't inherently cause this. These things are caused by a badly implemented lockdown, a lockdown that doesn't have measures in place to make sure people don't go bankrupt, measures to make sure people's mental health doesn't deteriorate etc.
- matz1 6y ago
  Sure, I will totally support such implementation that neither restrict people movement nor have occupancy restriction, at least for this specific virus. If let say covid has severity of anthrax or ebola then restricting people movement maybe justifiable but not otherwise.

saddlerustle 6y ago

An analysis from the UK government [1] summarised: > Socio-economic effects are estimated to have the greatest impact on quality of life of all categories investigated, over the short and long term combined; from March 2020 to more than five years from now, the impacts of lockdown and a resulting recession are estimated to reduce England’s health by over 970,000 QALYs – the health impacts of contracting COVID-19 are still unclear in the long term, but between March 2020 and March 2021, these represent 570,000 lost QALYs. So with even all the coronavirus deaths in the UK, which had one of the highest mortality rates in the western world, the lockdown is having a bigger impact on health than the virus. This is justifiable if you believe without the lockdown orders of magnitude more people would have died. But there's reasons to believe that's not the case: some recent research suggests regions are hitting "herd immunity" at only ~20% infected with basic precautions due to cross-immunity. And indeed, Sweden which didn't do a major lockdown isn't looking much worse off than the UK when comparing excess mortality. [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...