4 ms·

People are, statistically speaking, really bad at figuring out what to worry about. See: terrorist attacks, plane crashes, shark attacks, abduction by strangers

People are, statistically speaking, really bad at figuring out what to worry about. See: terrorist attacks, plane crashes, shark attacks, abduction by strangers. So maybe this is good news about the pandemic.

jchw 6y ago
No... that would just imply that it isn’t a useful signal. The case where it would be good is if people were good at worrying about the wrong things. I don’t think that is true, people worry about plenty of legitimate things too.
Animats 6y ago
This is encouraging. People are most worried about the most serious problem.
- WalterBright 6y ago
  Are they? Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it. Hospital acquired infections are a major cause of death, but few worry about that. The most likely causes of death for children are drowning and car accidents, but people worry far more about terrorist incidents. And on it goes.
  - spaced-out 6y ago
    >Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it Not anywhere near as many as are dying from Covid.
  - thomaslord 6y ago
    Do you believe that the flu poses a more significant risk than COVID-19, despite being both more contagious and more deadly?
    - dmurray 6y ago
      Well, I'm going to die of something, but surely I'm more likely to die of the flu. You can do weird things with statistics.
    - WalterBright 6y ago
      The flu comes around every year, so one would have to look at the cumulative risk. I'm well aware of the flu risk, and already had my vaccination for that for this season. Most people I know poo-poo getting that vaccination, despite it taking only 5 minutes and is already paid for by one's insurance.
  - jchw 6y ago
    We know how to deal with the flu. Healthy people do not normally die from it. COVID-19 is on pace to put a million people in the ground by the end of the year (IIRC) and certainly leave many survivors with serious health problems, and we really still know very little about treating it, and it is more contagious and more deadly, especially to the healthy population. We are past “it’s just a flu.”
    - WalterBright 6y ago
      > We know how to deal with the flu. Not really. We just are used to it. 12,000 to 61,000 US deaths per year over the last decade. This adds up year after year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=Whil.... I'm not dismissing covid as "just a flu". I'm pointing out that people dismiss the annual deaths from the flu. For example, few people take any particular steps to minimize transmission of the flu, like wearing a mask or keeping their kids out of school.
      - jchw 6y ago
        Again. You can treat the flu. 40k of those deaths are in the elderly. Probably more are people who are already sick. Not only is COVID not the flu, there’s basically no comparison.
        WalterBright 6y ago
        > there’s basically no comparison. Dismissing the annual death toll of the flu as not a real problem is what my point was. We're used to flu deaths, they aren't news. But several tens of thousands in the US still die of the flu every year. It is not a solved problem, the vaccine is only partially effective, and most people don't even get one.

jchw 6y ago

No... that would just imply that it isn’t a useful signal. The case where it would be good is if people were good at worrying about the wrong things. I don’t think that is true, people worry about plenty of legitimate things too.

Animats 6y ago

This is encouraging. People are most worried about the most serious problem.

WalterBright 6y ago
Are they? Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it. Hospital acquired infections are a major cause of death, but few worry about that. The most likely causes of death for children are drowning and car accidents, but people worry far more about terrorist incidents. And on it goes.
- spaced-out 6y ago
  >Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it Not anywhere near as many as are dying from Covid.
- thomaslord 6y ago
  Do you believe that the flu poses a more significant risk than COVID-19, despite being both more contagious and more deadly?
  - dmurray 6y ago
    Well, I'm going to die of something, but surely I'm more likely to die of the flu. You can do weird things with statistics.
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    The flu comes around every year, so one would have to look at the cumulative risk. I'm well aware of the flu risk, and already had my vaccination for that for this season. Most people I know poo-poo getting that vaccination, despite it taking only 5 minutes and is already paid for by one's insurance.
- jchw 6y ago
  We know how to deal with the flu. Healthy people do not normally die from it. COVID-19 is on pace to put a million people in the ground by the end of the year (IIRC) and certainly leave many survivors with serious health problems, and we really still know very little about treating it, and it is more contagious and more deadly, especially to the healthy population. We are past “it’s just a flu.”
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    > We know how to deal with the flu. Not really. We just are used to it. 12,000 to 61,000 US deaths per year over the last decade. This adds up year after year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=Whil.... I'm not dismissing covid as "just a flu". I'm pointing out that people dismiss the annual deaths from the flu. For example, few people take any particular steps to minimize transmission of the flu, like wearing a mask or keeping their kids out of school.
    - jchw 6y ago
      Again. You can treat the flu. 40k of those deaths are in the elderly. Probably more are people who are already sick. Not only is COVID not the flu, there’s basically no comparison.
      - WalterBright 6y ago
        > there’s basically no comparison. Dismissing the annual death toll of the flu as not a real problem is what my point was. We're used to flu deaths, they aren't news. But several tens of thousands in the US still die of the flu every year. It is not a solved problem, the vaccine is only partially effective, and most people don't even get one.