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Curious if the China/Iran deal had any influence on the timing of this. Iran and UAE were recently in talks to strengthen relations [0], but Iran and Israel/USA

Curious if the China/Iran deal had any influence on the timing of this. Iran and UAE were recently in talks to strengthen relations [0], but Iran and Israel/USA are long time adversaries. It's an interesting twist. [0] https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2020/8/10/why-the-uae-seeks-stronger-ties-with-iran https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2020/8/10/why-...

actuator 6y ago
It very well might be related. China and Iran getting closer with Pakistan already being heavily funded by China opens a new stronger axis in the middle east power struggle. Israel with its technological superiority and gulf states with their resources will want to have a stronger axis to combat that threat. Somewhat related, SA which has been generous to Pakistan, recently stopped a oil credit line to them. https://www.ft.com/content/49d24c4b-345e-492b-8a8f-c1a550173ee1 https://www.ft.com/content/49d24c4b-345e-492b-8a8f-c1a550173...
screye 6y ago
It will be really interesting to see what stance India takes in this bipolar US vs China world. India has historically been a strong ally of Iran and Russia, but finds itself precariously close to war with China, and with weakening ties to both Iran and Russia. India has also been a strong ally of Israel's and recently has improved its relations with the other middle eastern nations. It is clear that every sign points towards the US alliance for India, but the political brass still can't completely shed the socialist and even communist cloth some of them were cut from, despite 1991 and everything that came after. India needs to stop blindly following in the footsteps of the thinly veiled Non-Aligned Movement championed by Nehru. It is a bipolar world, neutrality might as well be a death knell.
- free_rms 6y ago
  That's an awfully dark take. Why is it in India's interest to be a piece on the board for the US, Russia or China? Non-Aligned seems to match their actual interests. They're big enough that they don't have to be anyone's proxy state.
  - screye 6y ago
    Because Non-aligned (NAM) was more or less a lie. India was strongly oriented towards USSR, all while never committing strongly enough to actually get legitimate support. It was also naively ideological, in a "if we play nice, so will everyone else". India allowed China to get their own UN security council seat on the idea of NAM, all while China itself blocked India's entry into the UNSC. In 1965, India received zero support from either sides, while being pressured by the same UN to withdraw troops despite having gained massive ground in heavily settled parts of Pakistan. Even Indonesia, India's closest NAM ally and co-founder, supported Pakistan in the war. Every time India has tried to take the moral high ground, it has come out of it in a poorer position. India can't stay non-aligned while Chinese and Pakistani leadership keep claiming more and more land (Tawang, Junagad, etc) within Indian borders. It can't rely on tacit support from this paper tiger super power Russia or an Iran that is headed towards becoming a Chinese proxy. For some reason, India is expected to bear the weight of being the moral compass of the world, all while the same world continuously disparages it for being a discriminatory and backward nation led by a fascist leader. (some accusations are admittedly well placed) Being an ally doesn't mean, India has to be a proxy state. Japan, South Korea, UK or France aren't American proxy states, but are American allies. It simply means to seek relationships where interests align. To pretend that India is non-aligned is to pretend that India does not have interests.
    - selimthegrim 6y ago
      The last "Pakistani" who cared about Junagadh was Shahnawaz Bhutto (Zulfiqar Ali's father, not the son). And for a country who is a stickler about instruments of accession I guess the rules get bent if you want to rebuild Somnath.
      - screye 6y ago
        Pakistan updated their map last week newly claiming Junagadh as their land. When it comes to partition itself, fair,clean and sensible are the last words I would use to describe it. I maintain that the hasty exit set India and Pakistan to be warring nations till the end of days. That being said, the idea that any ruler of a princely state should have a right to decide a regions fate is honestly quite weak. Almost all of India's princes happily operated as proxies for British exploitation. Plebiscite would have been the right choice for Kashmir as it was Junagadh. The eruption of invading military forces (put lightly) in independent Kashmir never allowed that plebiscite to ever happen, and for all we know, it never will.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  India has very close military and defense ties with Israel, it heavily relies on Israel for much of its advanced military technology.
- kamaal 6y ago
  >>It is clear that every sign points towards the US alliance for India This isn't the future, this is where India is already. India is firmly in the US camp. Upper income Indians(Upper middle class to rich) mostly derive their money from either US company based salaries, businesses or people who work in these businesses and spend money in restaurants, vacations, cars, clothing etc etc. Needless to say as of now the future of India is deeply intertwined with the future of US. NAM is not realistic for India anymore. We are already in the US camp, like it or not. So far it has worked fine for upper middle class people. A self reliant India has been tried before, and it hasn't worked. Not because the idea itself is bad or people didn't try hard enough, but there's too much domestic factionalism, corruption, selfish-to-animosity levels among various communities in India. This is beyond the fact that India as a country itself is not sure what direction it wants to head towards. Till the 1980s the direction was self-reliance, green revolution, skill and education based industrialization, urbanization, social security etc. From the 1980s the politics of India is drifting towards being a theocratic religious state. Every decade there is some major religious movement. As of now the drift has largely transformed into a very powerful current. In the last decade every single move of the government has been religious policy and law consolidation. The public itself cares little for economic or other growth. The dirty little secret of Indian political and social scene is we have wasted a record 40 years in domestic religious movements since the 1980s. In the same time, China has arrived on the world scene as a major economic, military and industrial super power. You can't afford to waste half a century(time, resources, political capital) in a highly competitive geo political ecosystem and expect to catch up with the giants(US, EU, China) overnight. Unfortunately our case isn't even as bad as our neighbors, at-least Pakistan, Afghanistan have excuses of them fighting major wars and Bangladesh was just too poor to compete. India's problems are literally our own doing. We wasted time and opportunities. India today has no options left but to ally with US/West. But it's also a double edged sword. In case of a major war with the Chinese, we will be forced to fight a war alone will all of Eurasia, all by ourselves. This could be disastrous. There are also other problems. US as an ally itself is a difficult partner to deal with. US imposes tariffs on Canada and its European allies, and threatens to cut funding to NATO. India is in a difficult situation given all these things.
stunt 6y ago
> long time adversaries Not very long. But, unfortunately long enough. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/MAGAZINE-how-israel-and-iran-went-from-allies-to-enemies-1.6049884 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/MAGAZINE-how-i...

actuator 6y ago

It very well might be related. China and Iran getting closer with Pakistan already being heavily funded by China opens a new stronger axis in the middle east power struggle. Israel with its technological superiority and gulf states with their resources will want to have a stronger axis to combat that threat. Somewhat related, SA which has been generous to Pakistan, recently stopped a oil credit line to them. https://www.ft.com/content/49d24c4b-345e-492b-8a8f-c1a550173ee1 https://www.ft.com/content/49d24c4b-345e-492b-8a8f-c1a550173...

screye 6y ago

It will be really interesting to see what stance India takes in this bipolar US vs China world. India has historically been a strong ally of Iran and Russia, but finds itself precariously close to war with China, and with weakening ties to both Iran and Russia. India has also been a strong ally of Israel's and recently has improved its relations with the other middle eastern nations. It is clear that every sign points towards the US alliance for India, but the political brass still can't completely shed the socialist and even communist cloth some of them were cut from, despite 1991 and everything that came after. India needs to stop blindly following in the footsteps of the thinly veiled Non-Aligned Movement championed by Nehru. It is a bipolar world, neutrality might as well be a death knell.

free_rms 6y ago
That's an awfully dark take. Why is it in India's interest to be a piece on the board for the US, Russia or China? Non-Aligned seems to match their actual interests. They're big enough that they don't have to be anyone's proxy state.
- screye 6y ago
  Because Non-aligned (NAM) was more or less a lie. India was strongly oriented towards USSR, all while never committing strongly enough to actually get legitimate support. It was also naively ideological, in a "if we play nice, so will everyone else". India allowed China to get their own UN security council seat on the idea of NAM, all while China itself blocked India's entry into the UNSC. In 1965, India received zero support from either sides, while being pressured by the same UN to withdraw troops despite having gained massive ground in heavily settled parts of Pakistan. Even Indonesia, India's closest NAM ally and co-founder, supported Pakistan in the war. Every time India has tried to take the moral high ground, it has come out of it in a poorer position. India can't stay non-aligned while Chinese and Pakistani leadership keep claiming more and more land (Tawang, Junagad, etc) within Indian borders. It can't rely on tacit support from this paper tiger super power Russia or an Iran that is headed towards becoming a Chinese proxy. For some reason, India is expected to bear the weight of being the moral compass of the world, all while the same world continuously disparages it for being a discriminatory and backward nation led by a fascist leader. (some accusations are admittedly well placed) Being an ally doesn't mean, India has to be a proxy state. Japan, South Korea, UK or France aren't American proxy states, but are American allies. It simply means to seek relationships where interests align. To pretend that India is non-aligned is to pretend that India does not have interests.
  - selimthegrim 6y ago
    The last "Pakistani" who cared about Junagadh was Shahnawaz Bhutto (Zulfiqar Ali's father, not the son). And for a country who is a stickler about instruments of accession I guess the rules get bent if you want to rebuild Somnath.
    - screye 6y ago
      Pakistan updated their map last week newly claiming Junagadh as their land. When it comes to partition itself, fair,clean and sensible are the last words I would use to describe it. I maintain that the hasty exit set India and Pakistan to be warring nations till the end of days. That being said, the idea that any ruler of a princely state should have a right to decide a regions fate is honestly quite weak. Almost all of India's princes happily operated as proxies for British exploitation. Plebiscite would have been the right choice for Kashmir as it was Junagadh. The eruption of invading military forces (put lightly) in independent Kashmir never allowed that plebiscite to ever happen, and for all we know, it never will.
dogma1138 6y ago
India has very close military and defense ties with Israel, it heavily relies on Israel for much of its advanced military technology.
kamaal 6y ago
>>It is clear that every sign points towards the US alliance for India This isn't the future, this is where India is already. India is firmly in the US camp. Upper income Indians(Upper middle class to rich) mostly derive their money from either US company based salaries, businesses or people who work in these businesses and spend money in restaurants, vacations, cars, clothing etc etc. Needless to say as of now the future of India is deeply intertwined with the future of US. NAM is not realistic for India anymore. We are already in the US camp, like it or not. So far it has worked fine for upper middle class people. A self reliant India has been tried before, and it hasn't worked. Not because the idea itself is bad or people didn't try hard enough, but there's too much domestic factionalism, corruption, selfish-to-animosity levels among various communities in India. This is beyond the fact that India as a country itself is not sure what direction it wants to head towards. Till the 1980s the direction was self-reliance, green revolution, skill and education based industrialization, urbanization, social security etc. From the 1980s the politics of India is drifting towards being a theocratic religious state. Every decade there is some major religious movement. As of now the drift has largely transformed into a very powerful current. In the last decade every single move of the government has been religious policy and law consolidation. The public itself cares little for economic or other growth. The dirty little secret of Indian political and social scene is we have wasted a record 40 years in domestic religious movements since the 1980s. In the same time, China has arrived on the world scene as a major economic, military and industrial super power. You can't afford to waste half a century(time, resources, political capital) in a highly competitive geo political ecosystem and expect to catch up with the giants(US, EU, China) overnight. Unfortunately our case isn't even as bad as our neighbors, at-least Pakistan, Afghanistan have excuses of them fighting major wars and Bangladesh was just too poor to compete. India's problems are literally our own doing. We wasted time and opportunities. India today has no options left but to ally with US/West. But it's also a double edged sword. In case of a major war with the Chinese, we will be forced to fight a war alone will all of Eurasia, all by ourselves. This could be disastrous. There are also other problems. US as an ally itself is a difficult partner to deal with. US imposes tariffs on Canada and its European allies, and threatens to cut funding to NATO. India is in a difficult situation given all these things.

stunt 6y ago

> long time adversaries Not very long. But, unfortunately long enough. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/MAGAZINE-how-israel-and-iran-went-from-allies-to-enemies-1.6049884 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/MAGAZINE-how-i...