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Tesla Gets Crushed in Germany by EVs from Volkswagen, Renault, and Hyundai Group

64 points by ckastner 6y ago

cs702 6y ago
This is... rather surprising to me. My perception until now was that EVs from "traditional" car manufacturers like VW, Renault, and Hyundai are not really competitive with Tesla's offerings on range, efficiency, advanced features, and value/price. I would not have expected Tesla's share of EV sales to drop so precipitously in any market. From the OP: German EV registrations by Automaker Automaker July 2020 YTD 2020 YTD Share ---------------------------------------------- Volkswagen Grp 6,023 23,400 38.3% Renault 2,851 9,917 16.2% Hyundai Grp. 3,214 7,353 12.0% Tesla 203 5,306 8.7% <-- Daimler Grp. 2,105 5,305 8.7% BMW Grp. 1,499 4,898 8.0% Groupe PSA 301 2,026 3.3% Nissan 304 1,475 2.4% Jaguar 73 386 0.6% Honda 43 144 0.2% All others 182 886 1.4% ---------------------------------------------- Total EVs 16,798 61,105 100.0% In particular, I would not have expected Mercedes/Daimler's and BMW's respective shares of the EV market to be so close to Tesla's this year in Germany or any other market. Remarkably, it seems that Mercedes and BMW EVs combined outsold Tesla by 18x in July (2,105 + 1,499 vs 203). Those two brands compete in the same segments and for the same affluent customers as Tesla's existing models (S, 3, X, and Y). Perhaps there's something unique about the German market? Or perhaps there's something unusual about the July figures, e.g., Tesla supply issues? Is there anyone from Germany here who can shed light on this? -- EDIT: It appears that supply issues were a key driver of the loss of market share. See https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-competition/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-co... (copied from gardaani's comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057).
- wtf_srsly 6y ago
  I am from Germany and you'll see a lot of french EVs (e.g. Renault Zoe) on the road here since they're relatively cheap and you can get some tax deductions. Not so many people want to spend Tesla money for mediocre build quality.
  - bartread 6y ago
    Also, to spend £100k on a car (cost here in the UK[0]), you really have to be into the aesthetic, I think, and Teslas look a little bit vanilla for my taste, plus I don't entirely love the proportions. They also don't do an estate/station wagon so if I was going to spend that kind of money on a car (I'm not - I couldn't even if I wanted to) it would be something like an Audi RS6: all of the performance, and all of the practicality. (Yes, I know the model X would nail the practicality as well, but I really hate SUVs and trucks.) [0] Edit for clarity: this is the approximate cost of the Model S P100D, which is the model I've been most interested in. Please see my grandchild comment.
    - reallydontask 6y ago
      >Also, to spend £100k on a car (cost here in the UK) Google suggests that Tesla Model 3 starts at £42.5K and the S and X are around ~ £80K, which I guess is what you had in mind
      - bartread 6y ago
        True, but the only model that's really interested me is the Model S P100D, which rolls in at or near £100k. It's not an estate, but it does have a decent amount of cabin and boot space - and it's obviously incredibly fast. The Model 3, which I find deeply unappealing in looks, is about the same price as a top end Volvo V60 hybrid (the fast version), which to me is a much more interesting/useful vehicle simply because it is an estate. Also much closer to the kind of money I could spend. What I'll probably end up doing is buying a 2 year old V60 hybrid in a year or two, to dodge at least some of the depreciation, to replace my aging and "characterful" Saab 93 wagon.
      - FireBeyond 6y ago
- skookum 6y ago
  > This is... a bit surprising to me. This surprise is likely due to the power of hype in an echo chamber. Tesla has drastically lost both market share (relative decline) and sales volume (absolute decline) throughout Europe. Norway, which was once paraded around as the Tesla future dominance preview, is now indistinguishable from zero for Tesla sales. The only market where Tesla is still growing volume is China.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    And, at least in the US, like solar panels, EVs become a lot less interesting when they cease to be a cash transfer to upper-middle and upper-class consumers.
  - nabla9 6y ago
    It has always been about volumes. Supply of high quality batteries was the bottleneck. Tesla had huge edge there. European car manufacturers joined together and and started huge battery factories in Europe in joint operations with LG Chem, CATL and others. Berkshire Hathaway provided some of the funding. Now when they have battery supply secured and skateboards are ready, they are ready to compete.
- Vespasian 6y ago
  One Reason is that Teslas are large while Zoes are small. Then compact segment is very popular in general and Sedans are not. Teslas are also quite expensive. Even if you remove tarifs they are still on the higher side of what most people would buy.
- whalesalad 6y ago
  It’s only a matter of time. These companies are huge, with massive infrastructure, partnerships, supply chain strength, R&D power and wisdom, etc... they also do not want to see Tesla eat their lunch. Electric vehicles are also not rocket science. A company who has been making vehicles for a century will have a substantial leg up once they get some momentum. They’re far more simple as far as the driveline goes than an ICE powered vehicle would be. No transmission. No oil coolant lines. No engineering the engine and trans to work together. No fuel tank, no fuel lines, no injection system, no fuel pumps. The list goes on. With an electrified powertrain it’s basically just a motor and juice (I’m over simplifying, electric motors and batteries require cooling as well for instance). These companies are going to eat Tesla for breakfast as soon as they get caught up.
  - valine 6y ago
    You’re ignoring Tesla’s software and super charging network, neither of which the legacy automakers seem capable of duplicating.
    - Waterluvian 6y ago
      I thought their software was impressive until I started driving a base model 2020 Forester that autopilots itself on highways. I’m not saying it’s as good as Tesla’s but it surprised me, showing me that no it’s not rocket science either and soon every car will have these features.
      - brianwawok 6y ago
        Adaptive cruise control has been available on mainstream cars for at least 5 years, and on fancy cars before that. That is not is what is interesting about Tesla. It's the developer like OTA updates with massive new features. Vs... the Forester gets an infotainment system when you buy it, and likely never gets a change for the life of the car. Compare to a 2 year old model 3 which is getting brand new features monthly.
        6y ago
- bane 6y ago
  So the Kia Niro EV is a $40k crossover with 239 miles of range. It's not as fast as a Tesla, but it's a very nice car and has many nice features. It also doesn't have lots of the fit and finish problems Teslas tend to have. I still wouldn't write off other manufacturers yet, and some companies like Hyundai/Kia invest massive amounts into alternative powertrains.
  - neutronicus 6y ago
    The Niro PHEV is a really nice little car and clocks in quite a bit cheaper, or at least it did when my wife and I were looking
  - UncleOxidant 6y ago
    The Hyundai Kona EV looks quite nice too. 258 mile range.
- nxpnsv 6y ago
  I am no expert in these matters. But from what I can tell, Volkswagen lists ranges around 400-550km on their German page for id3 cars starting significantly cheaper than any Tesla.
  - valuearb 6y ago
    Also significantly smaller and less comfortable.
    - p_l 6y ago
      Smaller is a plus. Comfort is in the eye of the beholder, as a lot of people claim that Model S comfort "is nothing to talk about"
    - nxpnsv 6y ago
      Maybe, but 10k€ matters to some people more than legroom does to others... case in point: article above.
- iagovar 6y ago
  Well, I can only give a bit of my perception about how I see it and how some people around me sees it in northern Spain (which is not Germany, meaning salaries tend to be lower). Tesla is expensive, and the Model 3 screen in the middle is something that puts some people off. I want physical buttons and no distraction, and so does the people around me for what I can gather. For what I see in Youtube about people who buys Tesla, they seem to complain a lot. One of those I follow settled with a SEAT Mii [https://ev-database.org/car/1191/SEAT-Mii-Electric https://ev-database.org/car/1191/SEAT-Mii-Electric], which another segment (and way cheaper) and it's not even designed as an EV from the ground up. For the same, or different reasons, people is pushing traditional brands to sell reasonably priced EVs. I'm particularly waiting for an A segment car, with range extender. I doubt I will buy a Tesla unless they come up with a car about ~15k that ticks some of the above boxes. I know, I know, I'm way off prices.
- Schweigi 6y ago
  Previous article about the Zoe outselling in Europe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23963732 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23963732 It seems in the end price and size are the most important factors in a lot of European countries. I have a personal anecdote from my dad who bought a Smart EQ. He just wanted a good car for commuting and the Model 3 is too expensive for it.
- ezconnect 6y ago
  I always expected Tesla to be on the upper bottom of the list once the big car companies offer their EV vehicles.
- simion314 6y ago
  See also iOS market share in Europe, I would say that in general price/features is more important factor then cool factor, if you don't have the money you buy a cheaper car and if you have the money you buy the one that has the comfort and you perceive is better quality.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- handelaar 6y ago
  There's nothing at all unique about Germany. The Kia/Hyundai crossover and the newest version of the Renault Zoe are 250-300 mile cars that cost half as much as a Tesla, and if you're into buying a luxury car, the Jag and BMW options actually provide the luxury in a package where all the doors fit and the bodywork doesn't look like someone elongated an old AMC Pacer. Price and look-and-feel is putting a massive dent in the side of Tesla, whose primary feature isn't the car but the charging network - which is clearly in an entirely different league than anyone else. But even that might not be worth thirty grand to most people
- brohee 6y ago
  Commutes are usually a lot shorter in Europe, so the emphasis on range isn't too relevant... Value/price are a bit in the eye of the beholder, Tesla isn't exactly renowned for its build quality. And some people actually value a dealer network.
  - brianwawok 6y ago
    Range is about road trips rather than commutes for most? people. If 250 vs 300 miles is a make or break it for a daily commute, you need to much a lot closer to work.
    - UncleOxidant 6y ago
      Sure, but how often do you take a road trip vs how often do you commute? In Europe there are plenty of rail options for road trips.
      - ghaff 6y ago
        And, even for longer road trips, there are fewer genuinely remote areas in Europe than there are in the US. At this point, there's no way I would buy an EV as my only vehicle in the US. I'm not going to plan out weekend trips based on whether there are charging stations available.
        brianwawok 6y ago
        Have you looked at the super charger network in the US? It’s pretty dang good.
- _jal 6y ago
  Chatted with some extended family on the topic a while back, and their take was that the Tesla "brand" isn't terribly well received. (They're mostly middle-ish class professionals.) Their take was that Tesla is overpriced for erratic quality and generally too flashy. "Toys for attention seekers" was one phrase I recall.
  - fxtentacle 6y ago
    Agree. Here in Germany, the people who mention Tesla's autopilot are seen as idiots because they let themselves get tricked by marketing over substance. Plus we Germans like to buy a car with 5+ years of warranty, but Tesla just doesn't have the quality needed for that.
- radium3d 6y ago
  They don't have the complete Supercharger network advantage there. Europe offers much better DC fast charging alternatives than here in the US and it's more standardized. That's probably why, on top of the tax advantage of buying local EVs.
- rtkwe 6y ago
  > not really competitive with Tesla's offerings on range, efficiency, advanced features, and value/price One big factor probably is you just don't need as much range in Europe. Cities are more densely packed so travel distances are shorter and if you really want to go really far there are better options than driving like trains. Also I think the cars Tesla has put out are probably larger than people want over there. They're putting out large SUVs and regular sized American cars where Europe has traditionally favored more compact cars.
- andrewmutz 6y ago
  I own a Model S and a Nissan Leaf, and can confim that plenty of non-tesla manufacturers make great EVs. Tesla owns the space for sexy, somewhat self-driving, longest range cars, but they are very expensive. Alternative manufacturers make great cars many different price-points. Based on my experience with Tesla and non-Tesla EVs, I would expect market share numbers in 5 years in the US to look more like the German market share numbers. Teslas are like BMWs or Mercedes: they are great cars, but not mass-market.
- mosselman 6y ago
  Germans are very brand and country loyal. Usually they perceive German products to have higher quality. Usually they are right as well. Source: my wife is German My perception of Tesla is that it is a dishonest company and has mediocre quality. I wouldn’t buy a Tesla either if I were in the market and would probably look at a German brand or one of the Volkswagen group or Volvo or something, maybe Toyota.
  - nabla9 6y ago
    >German products to have higher quality. Usually they are right as well. Source: my wife is German So you have loyal high quality wife that is usually right. Good for you.
    - mosselman 6y ago
      Only if I don’t call her a product. I don’t think that would go over very well. Also, officially, she’s always right.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- x87678r 6y ago
  The Berlin Tesla factory is supposed to make up to 40,000 cars a month so hopefully someone will want them. :) Maybe they need a smaller model for outside the USA.
- est31 6y ago
  > Perhaps there's something unique about the German market? Is there anyone from Germany here who can shed light on this? I'm from Germany (but not in the car industry in any way) and I think the main reason why they have sold so much cars is not because they are competitive, but because they have to. They have to sell the cars to fulfill whole-fleet emissions requirements, otherwise they'd be punished by fines. So they push the cars into the market at losses, but it's still cheaper for them than paying the fines. > According to Auto Motor and Sport, at least in the first phase, Volkswagen does not plan to make money on EVs and expects to lose around €3,000 per each I.D. sold https://insideevs.com/news/346510/volkswagen-id-sold-loss-3000/ https://insideevs.com/news/346510/volkswagen-id-sold-loss-30... "Chairman of the Daimler Supervisory Board: No company earns money with electric cars yet" (German) https://ecomento.de/2020/01/16/daimler-aufsichtsratschef-keiner-verdient-mit-elektroautos-geld/ https://ecomento.de/2020/01/16/daimler-aufsichtsratschef-kei... > In view of the threat of fines being imposed on the EU for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, it is worthwhile for car manufacturers to sell electric cars at a loss (without covering all costs). Because electric cars reduce the average CO2 emissions of a vehicle fleet, manufacturers can sell many profitable cars with combustion engines with an optimized amount of electricity and still remain below the generally prescribed average of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer, calculated Prof. Dr. Peter Hoberg from the University of Applied Sciences in Worms. (German) https://www.elektroauto-news.net/2020/co2-grenzwerte-verluste-elektroautos-lohnen-sich-autokonzerne https://www.elektroauto-news.net/2020/co2-grenzwerte-verlust...
- manacit 6y ago
  Purely an opinion, but I would guess that range is something that matters significantly less in most of Europe than it does in the USA, to make a broad generalization. Drives are shorter in distance, and charging opportunities are much more readily available given the density of much of Europe. I would hazard a guess that trains are much more popular for longer-distance trips where flying isn't an option, a big contrast to the USA. This is why vehicles like the Honda e exist as an "urban car" at a lower price point than Tesla cares to hit. With a max range is only 137 miles, it's not "competitive", but it's priced ~14k GBP less than a Model 3 from what I can tell.
- p_l 6y ago
  A big summary is that: - Teslas are expensive A Tesla is going to be in the upper-end of the price range for most people, and in fact a lot of the time they were status symbols in the sense of how rare they are. In fact, I have just checked used cars, got surprised to see 86 Teslas on sale of all kinds in Poland, lots of kilometers driven... and prices that I can buy a plane or helicopter for. - Tesla has ridiculously low build quality This goes hand in hand with the price, except the build quality is worse than low-end of the price range. Things that I've seen people in the USA somehow accept (parking cameras failing on newly bought car, involving voodoo rituals for resets) would lead to the car getting returned and with request for full refund. Better not to mention the tone of any "user's review" that would follow. - There's no bonus in the form of build-out supercharger network While there are superchargers in Europe, as far as I know the network is quite sparse in comparison with USA, electricity is not necessarily cheap, and many (something that all BEVs deal with) there are issues with charging your car if you live in a city. - shorter-distance BEV are more acceptable, especially as "city car" This is big, because it means that smaller cars with smaller batteries (and let's be honest, the "secret sauce" of Tesla is their battery supply chain) are not as much of a problem as in USA. Combined with with (lack of) availability of charging stations, this meant that a lot of earlier BEV purchases went towards "fleet buy", at least locally in Poland. As an organization, it was much easier to arrange charging in parking space etc. Such fleet buys, some with "rent-a-car" setup where you can pickup a car a bit like you'd pickup an electric scooter, helped "prepare the land". - Tesla cars were made for USA roads A bit of beaten horse, but there's noticeable difference in how wide the roads are, parking space availability, etc. While modern USA sedans and so on aren't gigantic like old full frame cars, American cars are still noticeably bigger. US brands selling in Europe tend to sell models adapted for Europe. - Servicing. Even in USA servicing Tesla cars is full of horror stories. While in the western Europe there's less focus on smaller car service companies, the availability and cost of parts are probably just as noticeable. - The big Tesla sales were subsidized I remember how last year everyone on HN was crowing about Tesla being most popular new car brand in, if I recall correctly, Netherlands. Barely anyone noticed the part where the BEV purchases were driven by ending of package of tax rebates and subsidies for buying a new BEV car, which ended because the BEV market was "coming together". And Tesla simply had brand recognition for electric car and availability. (and last, but definitely not least) - Volkswagen et al had been making slow and steady progress towards BEV offensive Meanwhile, European (and not only) car manufacturers were slowly ramping up capability on BEV front, with 2019 marking huge marketing campaign from Volkswagen bringing, excuse me, "BEV to the masses". We're talking huge manufacturing capacity that turns like a supertanker, but it can probably outproduce Tesla ten times over, switching tracks to BEV as a whole. And that shift in manufacturing is slowly starting to hit general population. Electric cars are moving away from curios, slowly shifting to mainstream.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  Comparing monthly sales is meaningless. The fact that only 203 Teslas were registered in July just means that no boats full of cars arrived in July. Normally you can fairly compare quarterly numbers, but COVID-19 prevented Tesla from shipping to Europe for Q2. I expect a big spike in September as Tesla's Q3 boats arrive. I doubt it'll be enough to catch up, but the comparison will be much more fair then.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  I'm not sure why this is surprising? There's nothing much unique about Tesla that would preclude other, more established car companies from competing in the EV space. It was only a matter of time. This is why I've never understood Tesla's high stock prices. Sure, Tesla's got big battery factories, but those are being set up by other manufacturers as well. There's not a lot of secret sauce here.
- mtgx 6y ago
  Likely the total cost of the car mattered most vs efficiency. Most people can't afford 40-50k euro cars. More like 20k or less. I've been pleasing with Tesla/Musk to target the 20k market ever since Musk said they aren't interested in the sub-35k market (which turned out to be more like the sub-50k market in reality). So that's the answer. The reason Renault/Hyundai/VW are winning despite having worse efficiency and smaller batteries is because Tesla isn't even competing with their 20-30k euro cars.
Aviatore 6y ago
Does anyone know exactly what is happening here? It feels like some of their competitors may be selling their cars at a more affordable price due to levies/import costs + perceived brand value for European, Korean and Japanese products. I might be off the handle on this one. Also, if this trend continues, how will TSLA pricing remain so high once the hype simmers.
- gsnedders 6y ago
  The difference in price is in most cases greater than the 10% import duty, but yeah: almost all these cars are cheaper than Tesla's entry-level model. And as other commenters have said, these are largely smaller cars than the smallest Tesla, too.
- actuator 6y ago
  I think it might just be simply cars available at different price points which give a good value proposition for that price. Tesla starts at 44k euros in Germany, there is plenty of space to undercut that. It is happening in a lot of countries now with a myriad of automakers coming up with EV models. Also, not all of them have to match Tesla on either range/performance. If they can get 90% of the performance at say 70% of the price, it is a good buy. Auto market has always been competitive on price.
- TravelPiglet 6y ago
  The most expensive VW ID.3 is still a lot cheaper than the cheapest Tesla model 3 according to their web configurators.
- wnorris 6y ago
  These types of articles come out each month depending on where car shipments are and are not going. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc...
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
No surprises here. In markets where all cars are taxed a lot and fuel is taxed even more an expensive EV will do good because of the fuel savings relative to a comparably equipped ICE vehicle (basically it's more car for your dollar over time). In markets where all cars are taxed a lot, fuel is taxes more and there exists cheap EVs those cheaper EVs are gonna steal a substantial market share from the expensive EVs (all the people who were over-served by the expensive EV but bought it anyway because it was still cheaper than the ICE vehicle). Basically just roll fuel cost and taxes into ownership cost and this makes perfect sense. Teslas are cheap (relative to similar ICE cars) in Europe. Other EVs are cheaper still (because the lower the purchase price the more the operating cost dominates) so of course people buy them and that steals share from Tesla. Also, drive-trains and prices aside, Tesla doesn't sell compacts and Europe buys a lot of compacts. Edit: Since apparently this doesn't go without saying, I'm not making a value judgement on fuel cost+taxes, car taxes or anything else. I'm just saying that these things contribute to the total cost of ownership and that you have to look at total cost of ownership in order to make sense of the stats the article presents. It doesn't matter where the number comes from, just what it is.
- DFHippie 6y ago
  > Teslas are artificially cheap in Europe. Other EVs are cheaper still. Automobile economics are full of externalized costs. Prominent among these are CO2 and particulate pollution. Once you factor these externalities in, one can argue that ICE automobiles are artificially cheaper even after these costs are internalized somewhat by fuel taxes.
- TeeWEE 6y ago
  Teslas are not cheap in europe, they are top expensive. However for leasing they have become the cheaper choice. Private owners often for more affordable cars such as BWM i3.
HPsquared 6y ago
It's the iPhone atory all over again.
- outside1234 6y ago
  Who is the iPhone manufacture in that framing? Is it BMW? Or Tesla?
  - HPsquared 6y ago
    Tesla, having the first real breakthrough game-changer product in a new category. Various clones then start to appear at lower price points, then start to compete on quality. iPhone/Tesla continues to sell well, but is no longer dominant.
- Temasik 6y ago
  yes 1 trillion market cap coming soon
gchokov 6y ago
It is not surprising to me at all. Tesla are bad at servicing their cars in Europe. Model 3 and X are FULL OF ISSUES. Embarrassing issues, solved decades ago by brands like VW. I myself live in Europe, liked a Tesla, went to see it and compared it to my 10 year old German car. Decided to stick with a German car in the end.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Conversely, we live with the minor fit and finish and service issues with our Teslas because we prefer it to legacy automaker offerings (and, of course, the Germans are going to defend BMW and VW to the bitter end like Wirecard minus the accounting fraud because it’s a significant amount of their economy). Going to a dealer? Nope. Supporting emissions cheaters? Nope. Supporting automakers who had to be dragged to develop EVs by Tesla? Nope! Different strokes, the market will sort it out. As long as Tesla does well in large markets like the US and China [1], they’ll be fine. Europe isn’t exactly a car centric society. [1] https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/tesla-dominates-electric-car-sales-china/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/tesla-dominates-electric-car-... (Tesla still dominates electric car sales in China, over 11,000 deliveries in July) EDIT: @bzb4 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/study-americans-feel-taken-advantage-of-at-the-car-dealership-300301866.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/study-americans-fee... > One clear takeaway: people are fed up with the old-school experience of buying and selling a car at a dealership. 87% of American adults dislike something about the process of purchasing a vehicle at a traditional car dealership. > More than three in five Americans (61%) feel like they're taken advantage of at least some of the time when shopping at a car dealership. > Over half of Americans (54%) would love the ability to buy or sell a car without ever leaving home. > Two in five (42%) would be comfortable purchasing a car online without a test drive if certain assurances (like a money-back guarantee) were in place.
  - Vespasian 6y ago
    Naah. BMW is (almost) a lost cause. They stuck to the "EVs will never be more than a niche market" even while the Moloch of "German Auto" VW started to invest heavily (around 2016 2017) and now has some nice offers in all price ranges. Of course their hand was forced by Dieselgate but nobody will care in 20 years.
wnorris 6y ago
Tesla ships cars to different regions in waves. The previous months were primarily going to US customers (partly due to an ongoing pandemic). Notice how deliveries to Europe will spike in follow-on months as ships arrive. Tesla tends to have very vocal fans and haters. Each month there is a different article highlighting how Tesla is in dire straights due to the precipitous fall in sales in X country. The next month an article will say how Tesla crushes competitors in X market. Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc... https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-car-netherlands/ https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-ca... "With another wave of deliveries in the Netherlands, Tesla Model 3 has become the best-selling car in the country for the year as it now surpasses 10,000 units. Since the European launch of the Model 3 earlier this year, the vehicle clearly reinvigorated Tesla’s sales on the continent."
- cowpig 6y ago
  What's your source for this? edit: in case it sounds accusatory I want to clarify: your statement is totally plausible to me, I just want to learn about where you got the information (and learn more myself)
  - wnorris 6y ago
    Google Docs tracker for all ships carrying Tesla vehicles worldwide. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc...
  - gardaani 6y ago
    "The automaker didn’t do as well in Europe, but that’s because it barely had any supply for the market in Q2." https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-competition/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-co...
blaser-waffle 6y ago
Heard good things about the Kia Soul Electric and the Hyunadi Kona EV. If I lived somewhere that is not deeply involved in oil production -- and thus not friendly to EVs -- I'd consider the Kona. Not a lot of storage space, though, and I don't believe the performance matches Tesla. I'm still not sold on Teslas, too much hype and questionable behavior on Musk's part, but if they keep delivering I'd think about them in the future (again, pending leaving Oil Country). VW lost my trust after Dieselgate.
- gnicholas 6y ago
  I think the Kona looks great and I’ve heard good things about Hyundai in general. But the exploding battery pack gives me pause. [1] Hopefully it was a one-off thing and their recent update [2] will prevent future problems. But still, I won’t be buying one until a couple years have passed with no more incidents like this. 1: https://www.carandbike.com/news/hyundai-kona-electric-explodes-in-owners-garage-in-canada-automaker-launches-investigation-2078409 https://www.carandbike.com/news/hyundai-kona-electric-explod... 2: https://insideevs.com/news/428159/hyundai-updates-battery-monitoring-system-fire/ https://insideevs.com/news/428159/hyundai-updates-battery-mo...
qaq 6y ago
even model 3 is huge compared to most cars on the road here.
yalogin 6y ago
I welcome competition but I am very skeptical of this. The article feels like is using some shady stats. All cars are not the same. The price point absolutely matters, even more so in EVs. The correct way to compare them is in the appropriate market segment. Nissan Leaf sells in droves in the US but it doesn’t mean they lose a threat to Tesla. I want to see the breakdown by segment and if people are actually choosing a comparable car over a model 3 or S or X. Also the biggest advantage Tesla has is their supercharger network. I haven’t seen it replicated anywhere and it takes years to do so. I would give the edge to Tesla and only buy their cars as long as they have that insurmountable advantage.
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  I agree. This article is basically rage bait for the fanboys. Of course a bunch of EV compacts entering the market is gonna detract market share from the big EVs because all the "I'll only buy a compact" people just entered the market and cast their lot in with the compact. Tesla might be losing market share but EVs are very much a "rising tide lifts all ships" situation as they slowly replace more and more ICE vehicles so that's not necessarily indicative of anything. This is very far from a zero sum game.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    Tesla's current valuation is predicated on it essentially becoming the new Toyota (it's worth more than $TM right now). There's little doubt that Tesla can be a sustainable, successful electric automobile business in the "big EV" segment, but a big question is whether it will replace the Toyota Corollas, Camry's, and Priuses of yesteryear. If the answer to that question is "No", then maybe the market cap of TSLA is inflated.
    - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
      I know that what you're portraying is every online fanboy's wet dream but it's really unlikely to happen. Tesla's thing is bleeding edge tech. Bleeding edge tech is not what you fill a car full of if you want to sell cars to hordes of people who just want A to B transpiration and are willing to pay a hefty premium for consistency.
valuearb 6y ago
Tesla is being CRUSHED because a bunch of new entrants started selling EVs in lower price points, causing the market to GROW 68% which is BAD for Tesla for some reason. Will the shorts ever quit? Sure Tesla sales dropped 20% in one unique market that is home to their biggest competitors. Those competitors finally got their EV act together and are targeting bigger markets with cheaper cars. But German consumers are going to be especially biased towards VW, BMW, and Hitlers Staff car maker. My dad worked for VW in in the US, so I never drove a non German car till I was in my late 20s.
DrBazza 6y ago
VW are offering the Up and Golf which are small and mid-sized EV vehicles which are a lot cheaper than Tesla's larger saloons. They're town cars, vs. motorway/freeway/autobahn Teslas. I suppose it's also about range too. You don't need the range in a town or city, so a smaller cheaper EV works fine.
- reallydontask 6y ago
  The Golf is not a town car in Europe
cgufus 6y ago
Here is a nice page to check on current EV models: https://ev-database.org https://ev-database.org (They also include measurements on real-range).
gvhst 6y ago
BREAKING NEWS: During a recession people will try to save by buying cheaper but lower quality goods. There likely is also a non-trivial nationalism effect here. I don't think this has anything to do with the relative quality of product.
TeeWEE 6y ago
Tesla is still biggest in Netherlands, but mainly because for Leasing it got tax incentives until 01- 2020 https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers Tesla cars are still considered expensive and viewed as having low build quality.Especially the first model 3's and the Model X's. German cars are hard to beat regarding build quality.
- jiofih 6y ago
  Doesn’t the tax benefit apply to all EVs? Why would it benefit Tesla alone?
  - p_l 6y ago
    Availability at the time of purchase, I bet.
  - TeeWEE 6y ago
    All EV's below a certain price point. But the tax benefit has been cut partially.
picodguyo 6y ago
As a Tesla owner, I welcome the competition and hope it comes to America soon. I like my M3 but do not like driving an expensive car seen as a status symbol. My criteria are 300 miles of range and large enough for a family and unfortunately there aren't many options today.
bryanlarsen 6y ago
Tesla was significantly supply limited in Europe because of COVID-19. Traditionally the first month in a quarter is for European builds, so they can get on a boat and be delivered before the end of the quarter. Which is what happened in January. However, in April their factory was shut down. And because being profitable in Q2 was super important to Tesla because 4 consecutive quarters of profitability would allow them to join the S&P 500, the cars they manufactured in May & June were shipped in North America rather than to Europe. Until Tesla becomes demand limited rather than supply limited, any analysis of any particular market is prone to error -- spikes in one direction or the other may be just due to shifting shipping choices. So the drop may mean nothing, or it may be significant. I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle.
devy 6y ago
Looking at both the EV sales number by auto manufacturers and by auto brands, you can see that EV sales is no different than all automotive sales, the cheaper the cars, the more sales number they would have. Cars (EV included) under VW and Hyundai brands are mostly affordable low-end to mid range vehicles, so it makes sense that they are sold more than luxury brands like Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes Benz and Tesla. Yes, Tesla is still a luxury brand with majority of the models selling at close to $40k USD or above (the $35k USD Model 3 standard range version was removed from their website, even though you can still technically order them by talking to a sales rep.) Until Tesla can make their cars at below $30k range, they are not going to be competing head to head with VW and Hyundai, or in other words, they won't enjoy the sales number that VW or Hyundai has. There just aren't many who can afford Tesla. This is basic economics. PS: Nissan Leaf sales numbers low is probably outlier due to the charging port (Nissan uses ChadeMo instead of CCS for fast charging, but they reverse course at 2021 model year since ChadeMo is dead outside of Japan) and the charging infrastructure issues. PPS: Tesla manufacturing quality is also another issue - comparing to mature automotive manufacturers like VW and Hyundai. VW has 80 years of history of making cars, Hyundai has 50. Tesla is FAR behind in terms of the operational and manufacturing quality control than traditional automotive competitors, especially the German ones and Toyota (too bad, Toyota is betting big on hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid technologies, not on EV).
justapassenger 6y ago
Tesla is extremely overhyped Silicon Valley darling. In the real world, they have tons of struggles, like: - quirky interior - very limited model selection - dated outside design - quality issues - polarizing CEO - very limited features (outside of computer tech) - limited service capacity - expensive - all is their cars are huge And list goes on. It’s not hard to see why they won’t dominate market. Doesn’t mean they don’t have place there, but there’s basically 0 rational reasons to expect them to be a leader in a maturing market.
- stingraycharles 6y ago
  Wait, Tesla has a dated exterior design? I must be new here because when I look at what’s on the road, Tesla strikes me as a very modern looking car.
  - ulfw 6y ago
    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Car designs change every few years to keep sales up. Teslas look the same since the S was introduced (except for minor differentiations in updated lights/grill etc).
manomanowicz 6y ago
Tesla's current vehicle portfolio doesn't suit the current market trends in Europe. Only the Model 3, S, and X are currently available. Two are sedans which are losing market share to SUV type vehicles and the model X SUV is very expensive for most consumers. Most vehicle sales in Europe are in the B or C car segment (relatively small vehicles by North American standards). Increasingly the sales of B and C cars are moving away from hatchback models to CUVs (crossover utility vehicle) models which offer a raised seating position and more interior space. Tesla offer nothing in these segments which the likes of Volkswagen, Hyundai and Renault do. The Model Y should do well once it launches but I can imagine competitors who can offer a lower price albeit compromising the range doing better in this segment. Given that the distances driven in Europe are on average lower, the additional range Tesla can offer is not massively compelling unless they can undercut their rivals on price. On a slight tangent, the other threat is the increasing hybridisation of powertrains in Europe. Due to EU rules on the EU fleet -wide average Co2 levels of 95 gCo2/km coming into effect from 2021, vehicle manufacturers are now offering hybrid options on many name plates to reach this target. These PHEV and FHEV hybrid powertrains come at a significantly lower price compared with full electric vehicles with the benefit of short range electric driving only mode. Previously PHEV and FHEV were separate name plates which had unique (read: polarising) designs. Now PHEV and FHEV are pretty much available in all C car and above class vehicles in body styles not dissimilar from their combustion powertrain counterparts. These hybrid powertrains offer the short range electric only range consumers want for everyday driving with the potential for long range driving using the combustion engine all with no threat of range anxiety.

64 points by ckastner 6y ago

This is... rather surprising to me. My perception until now was that EVs from "traditional" car manufacturers like VW, Renault, and Hyundai are not really competitive with Tesla's offerings on range, efficiency, advanced features, and value/price. I would not have expected Tesla's share of EV sales to drop so precipitously in any market. From the OP: German EV registrations by Automaker Automaker July 2020 YTD 2020 YTD Share ---------------------------------------------- Volkswagen Grp 6,023 23,400 38.3% Renault 2,851 9,917 16.2% Hyundai Grp. 3,214 7,353 12.0% Tesla 203 5,306 8.7% <-- Daimler Grp. 2,105 5,305 8.7% BMW Grp. 1,499 4,898 8.0% Groupe PSA 301 2,026 3.3% Nissan 304 1,475 2.4% Jaguar 73 386 0.6% Honda 43 144 0.2% All others 182 886 1.4% ---------------------------------------------- Total EVs 16,798 61,105 100.0% In particular, I would not have expected Mercedes/Daimler's and BMW's respective shares of the EV market to be so close to Tesla's this year in Germany or any other market. Remarkably, it seems that Mercedes and BMW EVs combined outsold Tesla by 18x in July (2,105 + 1,499 vs 203). Those two brands compete in the same segments and for the same affluent customers as Tesla's existing models (S, 3, X, and Y). Perhaps there's something unique about the German market? Or perhaps there's something unusual about the July figures, e.g., Tesla supply issues? Is there anyone from Germany here who can shed light on this? -- EDIT: It appears that supply issues were a key driver of the loss of market share. See https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-competition/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-co... (copied from gardaani's comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057).

wtf_srsly 6y ago
I am from Germany and you'll see a lot of french EVs (e.g. Renault Zoe) on the road here since they're relatively cheap and you can get some tax deductions. Not so many people want to spend Tesla money for mediocre build quality.
- bartread 6y ago
  Also, to spend £100k on a car (cost here in the UK[0]), you really have to be into the aesthetic, I think, and Teslas look a little bit vanilla for my taste, plus I don't entirely love the proportions. They also don't do an estate/station wagon so if I was going to spend that kind of money on a car (I'm not - I couldn't even if I wanted to) it would be something like an Audi RS6: all of the performance, and all of the practicality. (Yes, I know the model X would nail the practicality as well, but I really hate SUVs and trucks.) [0] Edit for clarity: this is the approximate cost of the Model S P100D, which is the model I've been most interested in. Please see my grandchild comment.
  - reallydontask 6y ago
    >Also, to spend £100k on a car (cost here in the UK) Google suggests that Tesla Model 3 starts at £42.5K and the S and X are around ~ £80K, which I guess is what you had in mind
    - bartread 6y ago
      True, but the only model that's really interested me is the Model S P100D, which rolls in at or near £100k. It's not an estate, but it does have a decent amount of cabin and boot space - and it's obviously incredibly fast. The Model 3, which I find deeply unappealing in looks, is about the same price as a top end Volvo V60 hybrid (the fast version), which to me is a much more interesting/useful vehicle simply because it is an estate. Also much closer to the kind of money I could spend. What I'll probably end up doing is buying a 2 year old V60 hybrid in a year or two, to dodge at least some of the depreciation, to replace my aging and "characterful" Saab 93 wagon.
    - FireBeyond 6y ago
skookum 6y ago
> This is... a bit surprising to me. This surprise is likely due to the power of hype in an echo chamber. Tesla has drastically lost both market share (relative decline) and sales volume (absolute decline) throughout Europe. Norway, which was once paraded around as the Tesla future dominance preview, is now indistinguishable from zero for Tesla sales. The only market where Tesla is still growing volume is China.
- ghaff 6y ago
  And, at least in the US, like solar panels, EVs become a lot less interesting when they cease to be a cash transfer to upper-middle and upper-class consumers.
- nabla9 6y ago
  It has always been about volumes. Supply of high quality batteries was the bottleneck. Tesla had huge edge there. European car manufacturers joined together and and started huge battery factories in Europe in joint operations with LG Chem, CATL and others. Berkshire Hathaway provided some of the funding. Now when they have battery supply secured and skateboards are ready, they are ready to compete.
Vespasian 6y ago
One Reason is that Teslas are large while Zoes are small. Then compact segment is very popular in general and Sedans are not. Teslas are also quite expensive. Even if you remove tarifs they are still on the higher side of what most people would buy.
whalesalad 6y ago
It’s only a matter of time. These companies are huge, with massive infrastructure, partnerships, supply chain strength, R&D power and wisdom, etc... they also do not want to see Tesla eat their lunch. Electric vehicles are also not rocket science. A company who has been making vehicles for a century will have a substantial leg up once they get some momentum. They’re far more simple as far as the driveline goes than an ICE powered vehicle would be. No transmission. No oil coolant lines. No engineering the engine and trans to work together. No fuel tank, no fuel lines, no injection system, no fuel pumps. The list goes on. With an electrified powertrain it’s basically just a motor and juice (I’m over simplifying, electric motors and batteries require cooling as well for instance). These companies are going to eat Tesla for breakfast as soon as they get caught up.
- valine 6y ago
  You’re ignoring Tesla’s software and super charging network, neither of which the legacy automakers seem capable of duplicating.
  - Waterluvian 6y ago
    I thought their software was impressive until I started driving a base model 2020 Forester that autopilots itself on highways. I’m not saying it’s as good as Tesla’s but it surprised me, showing me that no it’s not rocket science either and soon every car will have these features.
    - brianwawok 6y ago
      Adaptive cruise control has been available on mainstream cars for at least 5 years, and on fancy cars before that. That is not is what is interesting about Tesla. It's the developer like OTA updates with massive new features. Vs... the Forester gets an infotainment system when you buy it, and likely never gets a change for the life of the car. Compare to a 2 year old model 3 which is getting brand new features monthly.
      - 6y ago
bane 6y ago
So the Kia Niro EV is a $40k crossover with 239 miles of range. It's not as fast as a Tesla, but it's a very nice car and has many nice features. It also doesn't have lots of the fit and finish problems Teslas tend to have. I still wouldn't write off other manufacturers yet, and some companies like Hyundai/Kia invest massive amounts into alternative powertrains.
- neutronicus 6y ago
  The Niro PHEV is a really nice little car and clocks in quite a bit cheaper, or at least it did when my wife and I were looking
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  The Hyundai Kona EV looks quite nice too. 258 mile range.
nxpnsv 6y ago
I am no expert in these matters. But from what I can tell, Volkswagen lists ranges around 400-550km on their German page for id3 cars starting significantly cheaper than any Tesla.
- valuearb 6y ago
  Also significantly smaller and less comfortable.
  - p_l 6y ago
    Smaller is a plus. Comfort is in the eye of the beholder, as a lot of people claim that Model S comfort "is nothing to talk about"
  - nxpnsv 6y ago
    Maybe, but 10k€ matters to some people more than legroom does to others... case in point: article above.
iagovar 6y ago
Well, I can only give a bit of my perception about how I see it and how some people around me sees it in northern Spain (which is not Germany, meaning salaries tend to be lower). Tesla is expensive, and the Model 3 screen in the middle is something that puts some people off. I want physical buttons and no distraction, and so does the people around me for what I can gather. For what I see in Youtube about people who buys Tesla, they seem to complain a lot. One of those I follow settled with a SEAT Mii [https://ev-database.org/car/1191/SEAT-Mii-Electric https://ev-database.org/car/1191/SEAT-Mii-Electric], which another segment (and way cheaper) and it's not even designed as an EV from the ground up. For the same, or different reasons, people is pushing traditional brands to sell reasonably priced EVs. I'm particularly waiting for an A segment car, with range extender. I doubt I will buy a Tesla unless they come up with a car about ~15k that ticks some of the above boxes. I know, I know, I'm way off prices.
Schweigi 6y ago
Previous article about the Zoe outselling in Europe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23963732 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23963732 It seems in the end price and size are the most important factors in a lot of European countries. I have a personal anecdote from my dad who bought a Smart EQ. He just wanted a good car for commuting and the Model 3 is too expensive for it.
ezconnect 6y ago
I always expected Tesla to be on the upper bottom of the list once the big car companies offer their EV vehicles.
simion314 6y ago
See also iOS market share in Europe, I would say that in general price/features is more important factor then cool factor, if you don't have the money you buy a cheaper car and if you have the money you buy the one that has the comfort and you perceive is better quality.
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handelaar 6y ago
There's nothing at all unique about Germany. The Kia/Hyundai crossover and the newest version of the Renault Zoe are 250-300 mile cars that cost half as much as a Tesla, and if you're into buying a luxury car, the Jag and BMW options actually provide the luxury in a package where all the doors fit and the bodywork doesn't look like someone elongated an old AMC Pacer. Price and look-and-feel is putting a massive dent in the side of Tesla, whose primary feature isn't the car but the charging network - which is clearly in an entirely different league than anyone else. But even that might not be worth thirty grand to most people
brohee 6y ago
Commutes are usually a lot shorter in Europe, so the emphasis on range isn't too relevant... Value/price are a bit in the eye of the beholder, Tesla isn't exactly renowned for its build quality. And some people actually value a dealer network.
- brianwawok 6y ago
  Range is about road trips rather than commutes for most? people. If 250 vs 300 miles is a make or break it for a daily commute, you need to much a lot closer to work.
  - UncleOxidant 6y ago
    Sure, but how often do you take a road trip vs how often do you commute? In Europe there are plenty of rail options for road trips.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      And, even for longer road trips, there are fewer genuinely remote areas in Europe than there are in the US. At this point, there's no way I would buy an EV as my only vehicle in the US. I'm not going to plan out weekend trips based on whether there are charging stations available.
      - brianwawok 6y ago
        Have you looked at the super charger network in the US? It’s pretty dang good.
_jal 6y ago
Chatted with some extended family on the topic a while back, and their take was that the Tesla "brand" isn't terribly well received. (They're mostly middle-ish class professionals.) Their take was that Tesla is overpriced for erratic quality and generally too flashy. "Toys for attention seekers" was one phrase I recall.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  Agree. Here in Germany, the people who mention Tesla's autopilot are seen as idiots because they let themselves get tricked by marketing over substance. Plus we Germans like to buy a car with 5+ years of warranty, but Tesla just doesn't have the quality needed for that.
radium3d 6y ago
They don't have the complete Supercharger network advantage there. Europe offers much better DC fast charging alternatives than here in the US and it's more standardized. That's probably why, on top of the tax advantage of buying local EVs.
rtkwe 6y ago
> not really competitive with Tesla's offerings on range, efficiency, advanced features, and value/price One big factor probably is you just don't need as much range in Europe. Cities are more densely packed so travel distances are shorter and if you really want to go really far there are better options than driving like trains. Also I think the cars Tesla has put out are probably larger than people want over there. They're putting out large SUVs and regular sized American cars where Europe has traditionally favored more compact cars.
andrewmutz 6y ago
I own a Model S and a Nissan Leaf, and can confim that plenty of non-tesla manufacturers make great EVs. Tesla owns the space for sexy, somewhat self-driving, longest range cars, but they are very expensive. Alternative manufacturers make great cars many different price-points. Based on my experience with Tesla and non-Tesla EVs, I would expect market share numbers in 5 years in the US to look more like the German market share numbers. Teslas are like BMWs or Mercedes: they are great cars, but not mass-market.
mosselman 6y ago
Germans are very brand and country loyal. Usually they perceive German products to have higher quality. Usually they are right as well. Source: my wife is German My perception of Tesla is that it is a dishonest company and has mediocre quality. I wouldn’t buy a Tesla either if I were in the market and would probably look at a German brand or one of the Volkswagen group or Volvo or something, maybe Toyota.
- nabla9 6y ago
  >German products to have higher quality. Usually they are right as well. Source: my wife is German So you have loyal high quality wife that is usually right. Good for you.
  - mosselman 6y ago
    Only if I don’t call her a product. I don’t think that would go over very well. Also, officially, she’s always right.
deleted 6y ago
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x87678r 6y ago
The Berlin Tesla factory is supposed to make up to 40,000 cars a month so hopefully someone will want them. :) Maybe they need a smaller model for outside the USA.
est31 6y ago
> Perhaps there's something unique about the German market? Is there anyone from Germany here who can shed light on this? I'm from Germany (but not in the car industry in any way) and I think the main reason why they have sold so much cars is not because they are competitive, but because they have to. They have to sell the cars to fulfill whole-fleet emissions requirements, otherwise they'd be punished by fines. So they push the cars into the market at losses, but it's still cheaper for them than paying the fines. > According to Auto Motor and Sport, at least in the first phase, Volkswagen does not plan to make money on EVs and expects to lose around €3,000 per each I.D. sold https://insideevs.com/news/346510/volkswagen-id-sold-loss-3000/ https://insideevs.com/news/346510/volkswagen-id-sold-loss-30... "Chairman of the Daimler Supervisory Board: No company earns money with electric cars yet" (German) https://ecomento.de/2020/01/16/daimler-aufsichtsratschef-keiner-verdient-mit-elektroautos-geld/ https://ecomento.de/2020/01/16/daimler-aufsichtsratschef-kei... > In view of the threat of fines being imposed on the EU for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, it is worthwhile for car manufacturers to sell electric cars at a loss (without covering all costs). Because electric cars reduce the average CO2 emissions of a vehicle fleet, manufacturers can sell many profitable cars with combustion engines with an optimized amount of electricity and still remain below the generally prescribed average of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer, calculated Prof. Dr. Peter Hoberg from the University of Applied Sciences in Worms. (German) https://www.elektroauto-news.net/2020/co2-grenzwerte-verluste-elektroautos-lohnen-sich-autokonzerne https://www.elektroauto-news.net/2020/co2-grenzwerte-verlust...
manacit 6y ago
Purely an opinion, but I would guess that range is something that matters significantly less in most of Europe than it does in the USA, to make a broad generalization. Drives are shorter in distance, and charging opportunities are much more readily available given the density of much of Europe. I would hazard a guess that trains are much more popular for longer-distance trips where flying isn't an option, a big contrast to the USA. This is why vehicles like the Honda e exist as an "urban car" at a lower price point than Tesla cares to hit. With a max range is only 137 miles, it's not "competitive", but it's priced ~14k GBP less than a Model 3 from what I can tell.
p_l 6y ago
A big summary is that: - Teslas are expensive A Tesla is going to be in the upper-end of the price range for most people, and in fact a lot of the time they were status symbols in the sense of how rare they are. In fact, I have just checked used cars, got surprised to see 86 Teslas on sale of all kinds in Poland, lots of kilometers driven... and prices that I can buy a plane or helicopter for. - Tesla has ridiculously low build quality This goes hand in hand with the price, except the build quality is worse than low-end of the price range. Things that I've seen people in the USA somehow accept (parking cameras failing on newly bought car, involving voodoo rituals for resets) would lead to the car getting returned and with request for full refund. Better not to mention the tone of any "user's review" that would follow. - There's no bonus in the form of build-out supercharger network While there are superchargers in Europe, as far as I know the network is quite sparse in comparison with USA, electricity is not necessarily cheap, and many (something that all BEVs deal with) there are issues with charging your car if you live in a city. - shorter-distance BEV are more acceptable, especially as "city car" This is big, because it means that smaller cars with smaller batteries (and let's be honest, the "secret sauce" of Tesla is their battery supply chain) are not as much of a problem as in USA. Combined with with (lack of) availability of charging stations, this meant that a lot of earlier BEV purchases went towards "fleet buy", at least locally in Poland. As an organization, it was much easier to arrange charging in parking space etc. Such fleet buys, some with "rent-a-car" setup where you can pickup a car a bit like you'd pickup an electric scooter, helped "prepare the land". - Tesla cars were made for USA roads A bit of beaten horse, but there's noticeable difference in how wide the roads are, parking space availability, etc. While modern USA sedans and so on aren't gigantic like old full frame cars, American cars are still noticeably bigger. US brands selling in Europe tend to sell models adapted for Europe. - Servicing. Even in USA servicing Tesla cars is full of horror stories. While in the western Europe there's less focus on smaller car service companies, the availability and cost of parts are probably just as noticeable. - The big Tesla sales were subsidized I remember how last year everyone on HN was crowing about Tesla being most popular new car brand in, if I recall correctly, Netherlands. Barely anyone noticed the part where the BEV purchases were driven by ending of package of tax rebates and subsidies for buying a new BEV car, which ended because the BEV market was "coming together". And Tesla simply had brand recognition for electric car and availability. (and last, but definitely not least) - Volkswagen et al had been making slow and steady progress towards BEV offensive Meanwhile, European (and not only) car manufacturers were slowly ramping up capability on BEV front, with 2019 marking huge marketing campaign from Volkswagen bringing, excuse me, "BEV to the masses". We're talking huge manufacturing capacity that turns like a supertanker, but it can probably outproduce Tesla ten times over, switching tracks to BEV as a whole. And that shift in manufacturing is slowly starting to hit general population. Electric cars are moving away from curios, slowly shifting to mainstream.
bryanlarsen 6y ago
Comparing monthly sales is meaningless. The fact that only 203 Teslas were registered in July just means that no boats full of cars arrived in July. Normally you can fairly compare quarterly numbers, but COVID-19 prevented Tesla from shipping to Europe for Q2. I expect a big spike in September as Tesla's Q3 boats arrive. I doubt it'll be enough to catch up, but the comparison will be much more fair then.
UncleOxidant 6y ago
I'm not sure why this is surprising? There's nothing much unique about Tesla that would preclude other, more established car companies from competing in the EV space. It was only a matter of time. This is why I've never understood Tesla's high stock prices. Sure, Tesla's got big battery factories, but those are being set up by other manufacturers as well. There's not a lot of secret sauce here.
mtgx 6y ago
Likely the total cost of the car mattered most vs efficiency. Most people can't afford 40-50k euro cars. More like 20k or less. I've been pleasing with Tesla/Musk to target the 20k market ever since Musk said they aren't interested in the sub-35k market (which turned out to be more like the sub-50k market in reality). So that's the answer. The reason Renault/Hyundai/VW are winning despite having worse efficiency and smaller batteries is because Tesla isn't even competing with their 20-30k euro cars.

Aviatore 6y ago

Does anyone know exactly what is happening here? It feels like some of their competitors may be selling their cars at a more affordable price due to levies/import costs + perceived brand value for European, Korean and Japanese products. I might be off the handle on this one. Also, if this trend continues, how will TSLA pricing remain so high once the hype simmers.

gsnedders 6y ago
The difference in price is in most cases greater than the 10% import duty, but yeah: almost all these cars are cheaper than Tesla's entry-level model. And as other commenters have said, these are largely smaller cars than the smallest Tesla, too.
actuator 6y ago
I think it might just be simply cars available at different price points which give a good value proposition for that price. Tesla starts at 44k euros in Germany, there is plenty of space to undercut that. It is happening in a lot of countries now with a myriad of automakers coming up with EV models. Also, not all of them have to match Tesla on either range/performance. If they can get 90% of the performance at say 70% of the price, it is a good buy. Auto market has always been competitive on price.
TravelPiglet 6y ago
The most expensive VW ID.3 is still a lot cheaper than the cheapest Tesla model 3 according to their web configurators.
wnorris 6y ago
These types of articles come out each month depending on where car shipments are and are not going. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc...

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

No surprises here. In markets where all cars are taxed a lot and fuel is taxed even more an expensive EV will do good because of the fuel savings relative to a comparably equipped ICE vehicle (basically it's more car for your dollar over time). In markets where all cars are taxed a lot, fuel is taxes more and there exists cheap EVs those cheaper EVs are gonna steal a substantial market share from the expensive EVs (all the people who were over-served by the expensive EV but bought it anyway because it was still cheaper than the ICE vehicle). Basically just roll fuel cost and taxes into ownership cost and this makes perfect sense. Teslas are cheap (relative to similar ICE cars) in Europe. Other EVs are cheaper still (because the lower the purchase price the more the operating cost dominates) so of course people buy them and that steals share from Tesla. Also, drive-trains and prices aside, Tesla doesn't sell compacts and Europe buys a lot of compacts. Edit: Since apparently this doesn't go without saying, I'm not making a value judgement on fuel cost+taxes, car taxes or anything else. I'm just saying that these things contribute to the total cost of ownership and that you have to look at total cost of ownership in order to make sense of the stats the article presents. It doesn't matter where the number comes from, just what it is.

DFHippie 6y ago
> Teslas are artificially cheap in Europe. Other EVs are cheaper still. Automobile economics are full of externalized costs. Prominent among these are CO2 and particulate pollution. Once you factor these externalities in, one can argue that ICE automobiles are artificially cheaper even after these costs are internalized somewhat by fuel taxes.
TeeWEE 6y ago
Teslas are not cheap in europe, they are top expensive. However for leasing they have become the cheaper choice. Private owners often for more affordable cars such as BWM i3.

HPsquared 6y ago

It's the iPhone atory all over again.

outside1234 6y ago
Who is the iPhone manufacture in that framing? Is it BMW? Or Tesla?
- HPsquared 6y ago
  Tesla, having the first real breakthrough game-changer product in a new category. Various clones then start to appear at lower price points, then start to compete on quality. iPhone/Tesla continues to sell well, but is no longer dominant.
Temasik 6y ago
yes 1 trillion market cap coming soon

gchokov 6y ago

It is not surprising to me at all. Tesla are bad at servicing their cars in Europe. Model 3 and X are FULL OF ISSUES. Embarrassing issues, solved decades ago by brands like VW. I myself live in Europe, liked a Tesla, went to see it and compared it to my 10 year old German car. Decided to stick with a German car in the end.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Conversely, we live with the minor fit and finish and service issues with our Teslas because we prefer it to legacy automaker offerings (and, of course, the Germans are going to defend BMW and VW to the bitter end like Wirecard minus the accounting fraud because it’s a significant amount of their economy). Going to a dealer? Nope. Supporting emissions cheaters? Nope. Supporting automakers who had to be dragged to develop EVs by Tesla? Nope! Different strokes, the market will sort it out. As long as Tesla does well in large markets like the US and China [1], they’ll be fine. Europe isn’t exactly a car centric society. [1] https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/tesla-dominates-electric-car-sales-china/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/tesla-dominates-electric-car-... (Tesla still dominates electric car sales in China, over 11,000 deliveries in July) EDIT: @bzb4 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/study-americans-feel-taken-advantage-of-at-the-car-dealership-300301866.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/study-americans-fee... > One clear takeaway: people are fed up with the old-school experience of buying and selling a car at a dealership. 87% of American adults dislike something about the process of purchasing a vehicle at a traditional car dealership. > More than three in five Americans (61%) feel like they're taken advantage of at least some of the time when shopping at a car dealership. > Over half of Americans (54%) would love the ability to buy or sell a car without ever leaving home. > Two in five (42%) would be comfortable purchasing a car online without a test drive if certain assurances (like a money-back guarantee) were in place.
- Vespasian 6y ago
  Naah. BMW is (almost) a lost cause. They stuck to the "EVs will never be more than a niche market" even while the Moloch of "German Auto" VW started to invest heavily (around 2016 2017) and now has some nice offers in all price ranges. Of course their hand was forced by Dieselgate but nobody will care in 20 years.

wnorris 6y ago

Tesla ships cars to different regions in waves. The previous months were primarily going to US customers (partly due to an ongoing pandemic). Notice how deliveries to Europe will spike in follow-on months as ships arrive. Tesla tends to have very vocal fans and haters. Each month there is a different article highlighting how Tesla is in dire straights due to the precipitous fall in sales in X country. The next month an article will say how Tesla crushes competitors in X market. Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc... https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-car-netherlands/ https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-ca... "With another wave of deliveries in the Netherlands, Tesla Model 3 has become the best-selling car in the country for the year as it now surpasses 10,000 units. Since the European launch of the Model 3 earlier this year, the vehicle clearly reinvigorated Tesla’s sales on the continent."

cowpig 6y ago
What's your source for this? edit: in case it sounds accusatory I want to clarify: your statement is totally plausible to me, I just want to learn about where you got the information (and learn more myself)
- wnorris 6y ago
  Google Docs tracker for all ships carrying Tesla vehicles worldwide. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJc...
- gardaani 6y ago
  "The automaker didn’t do as well in Europe, but that’s because it barely had any supply for the market in Q2." https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-competition/ https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-co...

blaser-waffle 6y ago

Heard good things about the Kia Soul Electric and the Hyunadi Kona EV. If I lived somewhere that is not deeply involved in oil production -- and thus not friendly to EVs -- I'd consider the Kona. Not a lot of storage space, though, and I don't believe the performance matches Tesla. I'm still not sold on Teslas, too much hype and questionable behavior on Musk's part, but if they keep delivering I'd think about them in the future (again, pending leaving Oil Country). VW lost my trust after Dieselgate.

gnicholas 6y ago
I think the Kona looks great and I’ve heard good things about Hyundai in general. But the exploding battery pack gives me pause. [1] Hopefully it was a one-off thing and their recent update [2] will prevent future problems. But still, I won’t be buying one until a couple years have passed with no more incidents like this. 1: https://www.carandbike.com/news/hyundai-kona-electric-explodes-in-owners-garage-in-canada-automaker-launches-investigation-2078409 https://www.carandbike.com/news/hyundai-kona-electric-explod... 2: https://insideevs.com/news/428159/hyundai-updates-battery-monitoring-system-fire/ https://insideevs.com/news/428159/hyundai-updates-battery-mo...

qaq 6y ago

even model 3 is huge compared to most cars on the road here.

yalogin 6y ago

I welcome competition but I am very skeptical of this. The article feels like is using some shady stats. All cars are not the same. The price point absolutely matters, even more so in EVs. The correct way to compare them is in the appropriate market segment. Nissan Leaf sells in droves in the US but it doesn’t mean they lose a threat to Tesla. I want to see the breakdown by segment and if people are actually choosing a comparable car over a model 3 or S or X. Also the biggest advantage Tesla has is their supercharger network. I haven’t seen it replicated anywhere and it takes years to do so. I would give the edge to Tesla and only buy their cars as long as they have that insurmountable advantage.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago
I agree. This article is basically rage bait for the fanboys. Of course a bunch of EV compacts entering the market is gonna detract market share from the big EVs because all the "I'll only buy a compact" people just entered the market and cast their lot in with the compact. Tesla might be losing market share but EVs are very much a "rising tide lifts all ships" situation as they slowly replace more and more ICE vehicles so that's not necessarily indicative of anything. This is very far from a zero sum game.
- bhupy 6y ago
  Tesla's current valuation is predicated on it essentially becoming the new Toyota (it's worth more than $TM right now). There's little doubt that Tesla can be a sustainable, successful electric automobile business in the "big EV" segment, but a big question is whether it will replace the Toyota Corollas, Camry's, and Priuses of yesteryear. If the answer to that question is "No", then maybe the market cap of TSLA is inflated.
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    I know that what you're portraying is every online fanboy's wet dream but it's really unlikely to happen. Tesla's thing is bleeding edge tech. Bleeding edge tech is not what you fill a car full of if you want to sell cars to hordes of people who just want A to B transpiration and are willing to pay a hefty premium for consistency.

valuearb 6y ago

Tesla is being CRUSHED because a bunch of new entrants started selling EVs in lower price points, causing the market to GROW 68% which is BAD for Tesla for some reason. Will the shorts ever quit? Sure Tesla sales dropped 20% in one unique market that is home to their biggest competitors. Those competitors finally got their EV act together and are targeting bigger markets with cheaper cars. But German consumers are going to be especially biased towards VW, BMW, and Hitlers Staff car maker. My dad worked for VW in in the US, so I never drove a non German car till I was in my late 20s.

DrBazza 6y ago

VW are offering the Up and Golf which are small and mid-sized EV vehicles which are a lot cheaper than Tesla's larger saloons. They're town cars, vs. motorway/freeway/autobahn Teslas. I suppose it's also about range too. You don't need the range in a town or city, so a smaller cheaper EV works fine.

reallydontask 6y ago
The Golf is not a town car in Europe

cgufus 6y ago

Here is a nice page to check on current EV models: https://ev-database.org https://ev-database.org (They also include measurements on real-range).

gvhst 6y ago

BREAKING NEWS: During a recession people will try to save by buying cheaper but lower quality goods. There likely is also a non-trivial nationalism effect here. I don't think this has anything to do with the relative quality of product.

TeeWEE 6y ago

Tesla is still biggest in Netherlands, but mainly because for Leasing it got tax incentives until 01- 2020 https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers Tesla cars are still considered expensive and viewed as having low build quality.Especially the first model 3's and the Model X's. German cars are hard to beat regarding build quality.

jiofih 6y ago
Doesn’t the tax benefit apply to all EVs? Why would it benefit Tesla alone?
- p_l 6y ago
  Availability at the time of purchase, I bet.
- TeeWEE 6y ago
  All EV's below a certain price point. But the tax benefit has been cut partially.

picodguyo 6y ago

As a Tesla owner, I welcome the competition and hope it comes to America soon. I like my M3 but do not like driving an expensive car seen as a status symbol. My criteria are 300 miles of range and large enough for a family and unfortunately there aren't many options today.

bryanlarsen 6y ago

Tesla was significantly supply limited in Europe because of COVID-19. Traditionally the first month in a quarter is for European builds, so they can get on a boat and be delivered before the end of the quarter. Which is what happened in January. However, in April their factory was shut down. And because being profitable in Q2 was super important to Tesla because 4 consecutive quarters of profitability would allow them to join the S&P 500, the cars they manufactured in May & June were shipped in North America rather than to Europe. Until Tesla becomes demand limited rather than supply limited, any analysis of any particular market is prone to error -- spikes in one direction or the other may be just due to shifting shipping choices. So the drop may mean nothing, or it may be significant. I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle.

devy 6y ago

Looking at both the EV sales number by auto manufacturers and by auto brands, you can see that EV sales is no different than all automotive sales, the cheaper the cars, the more sales number they would have. Cars (EV included) under VW and Hyundai brands are mostly affordable low-end to mid range vehicles, so it makes sense that they are sold more than luxury brands like Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes Benz and Tesla. Yes, Tesla is still a luxury brand with majority of the models selling at close to $40k USD or above (the $35k USD Model 3 standard range version was removed from their website, even though you can still technically order them by talking to a sales rep.) Until Tesla can make their cars at below $30k range, they are not going to be competing head to head with VW and Hyundai, or in other words, they won't enjoy the sales number that VW or Hyundai has. There just aren't many who can afford Tesla. This is basic economics. PS: Nissan Leaf sales numbers low is probably outlier due to the charging port (Nissan uses ChadeMo instead of CCS for fast charging, but they reverse course at 2021 model year since ChadeMo is dead outside of Japan) and the charging infrastructure issues. PPS: Tesla manufacturing quality is also another issue - comparing to mature automotive manufacturers like VW and Hyundai. VW has 80 years of history of making cars, Hyundai has 50. Tesla is FAR behind in terms of the operational and manufacturing quality control than traditional automotive competitors, especially the German ones and Toyota (too bad, Toyota is betting big on hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid technologies, not on EV).

justapassenger 6y ago

Tesla is extremely overhyped Silicon Valley darling. In the real world, they have tons of struggles, like: - quirky interior - very limited model selection - dated outside design - quality issues - polarizing CEO - very limited features (outside of computer tech) - limited service capacity - expensive - all is their cars are huge And list goes on. It’s not hard to see why they won’t dominate market. Doesn’t mean they don’t have place there, but there’s basically 0 rational reasons to expect them to be a leader in a maturing market.

stingraycharles 6y ago
Wait, Tesla has a dated exterior design? I must be new here because when I look at what’s on the road, Tesla strikes me as a very modern looking car.
- ulfw 6y ago
  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Car designs change every few years to keep sales up. Teslas look the same since the S was introduced (except for minor differentiations in updated lights/grill etc).

manomanowicz 6y ago

Tesla's current vehicle portfolio doesn't suit the current market trends in Europe. Only the Model 3, S, and X are currently available. Two are sedans which are losing market share to SUV type vehicles and the model X SUV is very expensive for most consumers. Most vehicle sales in Europe are in the B or C car segment (relatively small vehicles by North American standards). Increasingly the sales of B and C cars are moving away from hatchback models to CUVs (crossover utility vehicle) models which offer a raised seating position and more interior space. Tesla offer nothing in these segments which the likes of Volkswagen, Hyundai and Renault do. The Model Y should do well once it launches but I can imagine competitors who can offer a lower price albeit compromising the range doing better in this segment. Given that the distances driven in Europe are on average lower, the additional range Tesla can offer is not massively compelling unless they can undercut their rivals on price. On a slight tangent, the other threat is the increasing hybridisation of powertrains in Europe. Due to EU rules on the EU fleet -wide average Co2 levels of 95 gCo2/km coming into effect from 2021, vehicle manufacturers are now offering hybrid options on many name plates to reach this target. These PHEV and FHEV hybrid powertrains come at a significantly lower price compared with full electric vehicles with the benefit of short range electric driving only mode. Previously PHEV and FHEV were separate name plates which had unique (read: polarising) designs. Now PHEV and FHEV are pretty much available in all C car and above class vehicles in body styles not dissimilar from their combustion powertrain counterparts. These hybrid powertrains offer the short range electric only range consumers want for everyday driving with the potential for long range driving using the combustion engine all with no threat of range anxiety.