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Not really in my experience, I've never come across the problem without being stated explicitly how the moderator acts - it would be a different problem. What
by Pyramus 6y ago
Not really in my experience, I've never come across the problem without being stated explicitly how the moderator acts - it would be a different problem.
What I think is true is that people underestimate the role of the host (i.e. the rules according to which he behaves to).
- vertere 6y agoThe first statement of the problem in the wikipedia page (from "Ask Marilyn") does not state it explicitly (though it does say the host knows what's behind the doors). There is a reason wikipedia refers to them as "assumptions". Or from [0]: "The standard annunciation of the MH problem, does not make explicit what I am assuming here: namely, that Monty will always open a door which does not contain a prize." [0]: https://www.montyhallproblem.com/#F2 https://www.montyhallproblem.com/#F2
- Pyramus 6y agoWhile you are technically correct, it's implicitly stated ("game show") and correctly understood by the majority of readers. Take it from Marilyn vos Savant herself: "Virtually all of my critics understood the intended scenario. I personally read nearly three thousand letters (out of the many additional thousands that arrived) and found nearly every one insisting simply that because two options remained (or an equivalent error), the chances were even. Very few raised questions about ambiguity, and the letters actually published in the column were not among those few." [0] The crux of the problem is the counter-intuitive nature of probabilities and information, possible choices and choices that could have been. It's a difficult problem, purported to have tripped up even Paul Erdős. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_behaviors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_...