> In my opinion the general misconception about this problem does not stem from a misunderstanding of probabilites but a misconception about the moderator. An

> In my opinion the general misconception about this problem does not stem from a misunderstanding of probabilites but a misconception about the moderator. An analysis of the replies to the column in which the puzzle first had wide circulation showed that most of the respondents disputing the correct answer had understood the problem as intended, but still got the probabilities wrong. At that time, the game show on which it was based was well-known, so confusion over the moderator's role (which is not as a "bad actor") was less likely than now.