5 ms·

Why would we need that? I think a lot of people will get immunity the natural way, even now a lot of people are having covid w/o any symptoms at all, and they

• JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Not sure this immunity lasts long? So immunizing a herds-worth in a small period (2 weeks? 2 months?) might be a thing.
  • nickthemagicman 6y ago
    This is false, immunity is strong and long-lasting. The news is trying to sell papers. A vaccine is also an attenuated version of the virus so if becoming immune from the virus doesn't last long it won't last long from a vaccine.
    • pietroglyph 6y ago
      Most of your reply isn’t really correct. > A vaccine is also an attenuated version of the virus so if becoming immune from the virus doesn't last long it won't last long from a vaccine. A vaccine can be an attenuated virus, or a piece of mRNA or DNA, or a distinctive viral protein. Which type of vaccine you use+the adjuvants that go with it can result in very different immune responses and efficacy over time. > This is false, immunity is strong and long-lasting. Immunity to COVID-19 varies a lot person to person and is poorly understood. It does however appear that many people can be reinfected (especially people who had mild symptoms the first time.)
      • chrisco255 6y ago
        The only reason people are testing positive again after having Covid and healing from it is because the test is very poor at distinguishing between various coronaviruses, the vast majority of which are harmless and sometimes cause the common cold. There is a big false positive rate as a result.
        • dividedbyzero 6y ago
          Could you link to studies that support this point of view, if you have any? What are your sources?
          • nickthemagicman 6y ago
            >Post your link saying that people can be re-infected.
            • AstralStorm 6y ago
              Multiple cases described. You're being lazy as there is consensus that immunity if present is fickle. A well documented one: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200720/Doctor-in-Israel-reinfected-with-COVID-19-three-months-after-recovering.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200720/Doctor-in-Israel-...
              • nickthemagicman 6y ago
                News medical.dot net. That's not a legit site. Was hoping for a PubMed article. I looked at the sources for that article you posted and not one of them supported your claim. Not one. I even went several articles in because news medical dot net was using itself as a source. There's no consensus at all, even remotely. I have no idea where you got that other than fear based news reporting. I'm not going explain immunology to you but 99.9999% of viruses on the planet build long-term immunity if you survive. Coronavirus is the same way. To put it another way..vaccine immunity operates the same way as infectious immunity.... do you think they are going to invest billions of dollars into a vaccine if immunity only lasts for a few months?
            • dividedbyzero 6y ago
              No idea what that is supposed to tell me, to be honest.
      • nickthemagicman 6y ago
        Most of your reply to my reply is incorrect. >mRNA is part of a pathway that creates a protein that is on the virus which the immune system reacts to. >Please post your source saying that people can be re-infected.
  • zaro 6y ago
    I am also not sure how long it lasts but I fail to see why it will matter whether you got the immunity from a vaccine or the normal way. And let's say everybody get vaccine in 2 weeks period of time, if the immunity doesn't last at least few years what's the point of this mass vaccination then.
    • alias-dev 6y ago
      Well people survive vaccination, so there's that
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    • xbmcuser 6y ago
      It will stop the spread and die out if everyone gets a vaccination in short period. The virus can't survive outside a host very long so if everyone is immune even for a short period it has no one to spread to. It can be done country by country. Then only people that get the vaccination are allowed inside a country that is immune.
      • AstralStorm 6y ago
        That is very unlikely to happen, if only because vaccines do not have anywhere close to 100% success rate and many people won't be vaccinated due to health reasons alone. Plus there will be animal reservoirs. Nothing has this kind of success rates. Vaccine, if effective, reduces risk of vulnerable groups and transmission from their caretakers. Exactly like flu vaccination. Heck, we have failed to eradicate polio in all countries, a level 1 virus much easier to control. I predict zero chance we can eradicate a level 2 virus right now.
• Nitrolo 6y ago
  Because getting infected still carries a significant risk of illness, permanent health problems, or death with it, especially for at-risk groups. Getting vaccinated would sidestep that risk. And even if everybody did recover, there's the economic cost of an infection. Productivity missed because workers are sick at home, or worse in a hospital being cared for. I'm not sure what the dollar figures are, but I would not be surprised if vaccinating a large population turns out to be significantly cheaper than having a small percentage of that large population in ICUs for weeks on end.
  • derbOac 6y ago
    FWIW, correctly or incorrectly, I just read the OP as saying that people who have already been infected might not need to be vaccinated because they already have been exposed. So that figure might be smaller than what the BBC is floating. Not saying that affects the challenge appreciably, just that I read it differently.
  • xlm1717 6y ago
    The ship has long since sailed for productivity missed.
    • AstralStorm 6y ago
      The ship will return in a few months, you cannot expect everyone to keep this level of measures indefinitely.
• kwhitefoot 6y ago
  It is not evident yet that a large proportion of the population will be immune. The virus has some similarities with the common cold and it is well known that immunity does not last for the common cold. Having COVID without symptoms (asymptomatic) does not mean that you are immune and you are still infectious. Edit: > even now a lot of people are having covid w/o any symptoms at all The last estimate I saw (last week I think) for Stockholm was that only roughly ten percent of the local population had COVID,
  • xlm1717 6y ago
    Immunity doesn't last for the common cold because there's so many viruses that cause it.
    • AstralStorm 6y ago
      Uhm, about 6-20 very common ones,, though total count is close to 200. And these have variants. But even within just betacoronavirus 1 OH49 (10% of colds or thereabouts) immunity is not persistent. It is just mild enough. There's another one alphacoronavirus in about 5% of colds that is much worse. (Not counting SARS group.) Mind you parallel infection with multiple viruses is common.
  • goalieca 6y ago
    The original herd immunity "estimates" of 60% were 1-1/Ro. This never considered heterogeneous spread and it assumed everyone was equally susceptible. It's hard to estimate prevalance because PCR testing has a large false negative rate. It depends highly on which day of the infection you're tested and even then the peak rate is still quite miserable for trying to find it. Serorevalence is also tricky as we trade off false positive for false negative and the antibodies decline after a few months. That's not to say that memory B cells can't spin up production on demand though. Then there's the whole t-cell response which may play a bigger role in asymptomatic cases. All in all, its understood that antibody testing is underestimating infection rates. Regardless of what values we think herd immunity should have, it's pretty clear that places like Sweden have seen the death peak and then tail off without any major change in distancing policies. If anything, people are relaxing more with time. edit: I should mention that since march, we do have better treatment options and we have stepped up our game protecting care homes all over the world including Sweden which saw a majority of deaths from those facilities. This is why it's important to look at trends in other countries as well.
• ajuc 6y ago
  > Why would we need that? Because best case 0.1% death rate times best case 50% required for herd immunity times 7.8 billion people is 3.9 million dead people. And that's pretty bad.
  • nickthemagicman 6y ago
    Herd immunity is only going to be around 10 to 20% because of previous cross-reactivity with common cold viruses. Sweden Italy and New Zealand have already hit herd immunity. They're done with the virus and didn't have 50 percent. And before you post that they have a few cases recently... understand herd immunity doesn't mean the virus is gone...it just means the virus has nowhere to jump to... so there will always be a smattering of cases.
    • bkor 6y ago
      I think you misread an article. I saw one mention that 20% decline the infection rate. That's entirely different than herd immunity. I don't see any article saying that the mentioned countries have hit herd immunity. Especially New Zealand seems questionable, they've gone to a full lockdown, not for herd immunity.