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With any new technology, the likelihood of failure is high but the expected value is positive. As Nat Friedman (CEO of GitHub) said: "Pessimists sound smart. Op
by chroma 6y ago
With any new technology, the likelihood of failure is high but the expected value is positive. As Nat Friedman (CEO of GitHub) said: "Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money."
- smikhanov 6y ago> the likelihood of failure is high but the expected value is positive Except when the new technology was proposed and marketed by a loony, of course.
- marvin 6y agoYes, all those poor Tesla IPO investors who got misled by a loony are lining up for shareholder lawsuits and yelling for prosecution, due to the obviously financially irresponsible management of their investment. (Refresh my memory here - would an 88X return on investment after IPO be classified as high returns on a high-risk investment?)
- smikhanov 6y agoI sense some notes of disagreement with calling the Tesla CEO "a loony"
- heavenlyblue 6y ago* 10% of the optimists make money
- chrisco255 6y agoThe optimists get more than one at bat.
- bhupy 6y agoAnd pessimists don’t?
- therealdrag0 6y agoI think the implication is that pessimists don’t try.
- heavenlyblue 6y agoYour assumption is only true if trying never has a negative downside.
- therealdrag0 6y agoI don’t see how that follows.
- nytgop77 6y agoMy take on the GP meaning: Failure diminishes trust from investors. If you got 1 milliion from investors, and you blew it/wasted it/burned it. It will be harder to get the million for the 2nd idea.
- draw_down 6y agoI'd say the people who make money are optimists, but that's not at all the same thing as "optimists make money".
- sudosysgen 6y agoThe likelihood of failure is 100% when the technology is as ridiculous as the hyperloop. It's just yet more gadgetbahn, except it's transparently worse.
- reify_null 6y agoTalk about a false dichotomy there. No person is fully a pessimist or optimist. Framing it in terms like this just serves to stifle actual discussion. A nice soundbite from someone who happened to be optimistic about the right thing.