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If you think there will not be a violent reaction to a coup in Belarus you are very wrong. People outside Ukraine thought that the Ukrainian coup would represen

by l332mn 6y ago

If you think there will not be a violent reaction to a coup in Belarus you are very wrong. People outside Ukraine thought that the Ukrainian coup would represent a peaceful transition once completed, due to the unpopularity of Yanukovych. It resulted in a bloody civil war and the rise of ultra-nationalism, because coups represent much more than a transition of the presidency, they represent a fundamental shift in governmental power and the interests it serves.

fit2rule 6y ago
It is really very difficult to have a rational discussion about world affairs without pointing out the hypocrisy of the West - but you have definitely struck a chord here. People forget that sanctions are, literally, an act of war. The haste by which sanctions are called for, by the pseudo-intellectually decadent - wealthy, privileged, distant - is truly something to behold. It has long been thought that, when World War 3 finally comes to the West (which it started in 2003), it will be through civil unrest over what we have done to the world. We can't hide our burning piles of rubble for much longer. But do you think Belarussians have what it takes to defend their country from external influence, such as was the case with Ukraine? Belarussia seems to have a very weak media structure... isn't this kind of necessary, to prevent external actors having undue, often times very violent, influence over society?
- l332mn 6y ago
  Domestic forces have always proven to be much more of a threat than foreign ones. The end result will entirely depend on will of the Belarusian people, and whether or not foreign backers holds off for another day given the Belarusian response to these protests. In the case of a dramatic escalation of the situation, there will likely be foreign military support (for both sides), but no kind of foreign invasion. So how this turns out, if there will be a separation of the country like in Ukraine or not, is quite impossible to say right now, at least in my eyes.
publicola1990 6y ago
Ukrain had rather strong linguistic division into two camps, even before it became an open conflict. There is no similar deep sectarian division within Belarus.
golergka 6y ago
It's not a civil war, it's Russian intervention.
- l332mn 6y ago
  You don't even know the very basic facts about the Ukrainian situation.
dector 6y ago
> created: 1 hour ago This account is spreading exactly the same message that russian propaganda does. There is probability that it was created as a part of [russian troll army][1] that is financially supported by russian government. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_web_brigades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_web_brigades [2]: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43093390 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43093390 [3]: https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trolls-bots-election-tampering https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trol... [4]: https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trolls-bots-election-tampering https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trol...
- l332mn 6y ago
  Oh, please. Just because my opinion does not reflect western geopolitical interests it must be "Russian propaganda" according to you? Way to shut down dissenting opinions by labeling it propaganda.
- dang 6y ago
  Attacking another user in this way is explicitly against the site guidelines: "Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data." Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and don't do this again. In reality, the community is simply divided between people with very different views. Accusing someone else of being a spy or provocateur simply because they expressed a view you disagree with is pouring poison into the community. Lots more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
  - dector 6y ago
    You are right. My fault. I guess I was triggered by amount of users that were registered very recently and that they are broadcasting the same messages as pro-kremlin propaganda does. Will not do this again. Thanks for letting me know.

by l332mn 6y ago

fit2rule 6y ago

It is really very difficult to have a rational discussion about world affairs without pointing out the hypocrisy of the West - but you have definitely struck a chord here. People forget that sanctions are, literally, an act of war. The haste by which sanctions are called for, by the pseudo-intellectually decadent - wealthy, privileged, distant - is truly something to behold. It has long been thought that, when World War 3 finally comes to the West (which it started in 2003), it will be through civil unrest over what we have done to the world. We can't hide our burning piles of rubble for much longer. But do you think Belarussians have what it takes to defend their country from external influence, such as was the case with Ukraine? Belarussia seems to have a very weak media structure... isn't this kind of necessary, to prevent external actors having undue, often times very violent, influence over society?

l332mn 6y ago
Domestic forces have always proven to be much more of a threat than foreign ones. The end result will entirely depend on will of the Belarusian people, and whether or not foreign backers holds off for another day given the Belarusian response to these protests. In the case of a dramatic escalation of the situation, there will likely be foreign military support (for both sides), but no kind of foreign invasion. So how this turns out, if there will be a separation of the country like in Ukraine or not, is quite impossible to say right now, at least in my eyes.

publicola1990 6y ago

Ukrain had rather strong linguistic division into two camps, even before it became an open conflict. There is no similar deep sectarian division within Belarus.

golergka 6y ago

It's not a civil war, it's Russian intervention.

l332mn 6y ago
You don't even know the very basic facts about the Ukrainian situation.

dector 6y ago

> created: 1 hour ago This account is spreading exactly the same message that russian propaganda does. There is probability that it was created as a part of [russian troll army][1] that is financially supported by russian government. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_web_brigades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_web_brigades [2]: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43093390 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43093390 [3]: https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trolls-bots-election-tampering https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trol... [4]: https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trolls-bots-election-tampering https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990946/twitter-russian-trol...

l332mn 6y ago
Oh, please. Just because my opinion does not reflect western geopolitical interests it must be "Russian propaganda" according to you? Way to shut down dissenting opinions by labeling it propaganda.
dang 6y ago
Attacking another user in this way is explicitly against the site guidelines: "Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data." Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and don't do this again. In reality, the community is simply divided between people with very different views. Accusing someone else of being a spy or provocateur simply because they expressed a view you disagree with is pouring poison into the community. Lots more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
- dector 6y ago
  You are right. My fault. I guess I was triggered by amount of users that were registered very recently and that they are broadcasting the same messages as pro-kremlin propaganda does. Will not do this again. Thanks for letting me know.