2 ms·

So, after 6 months of Covid19 worldwide, where's our understanding of the probability of outdoors transmission? My toy understanding is that the probability of

So, after 6 months of Covid19 worldwide, where's our understanding of the probability of outdoors transmission? My toy understanding is that the probability of catching the disease is somewhat proportional with the product of the level and duration of the exposure. You can get it after just minutes of exposure in an ICU room where someone very sick has put a lot of germs in the air, or after a few hours in a poorly ventilated restaurant where a mildly symptomatic person has been talking and occasionally sneezing two tables away from you. Getting the virus on a beach seems astronomically improbable, except maybe if a sick person kisses you. Where are all the peer-reviewed scientific articles that summarize the conclusions of all the tracing that was done in the world?

elisbce 6y ago
Based on observations, your assumption that people on the beach are: 1) practicing proper and effective social distancing, 2) properly wearing medical masks with at least a water-resistant layer with high enough (e.g. 95%) filtering capability (not just some fashionable piece of cloth like bandana) 3) doing the above strictly for every single minute on the beach 4) proper wind condition to bring the viral load down to non-infectious level just does not happen in practice. People do not follow strict practices and bump into each other all the time. So your conclusion that getting the virus on a beach is astronomically small is likely invalidated.
- credit_guy 6y ago
  I'm not making these assumptions. I think it's virtually impossible to contract Covid on the beach, regardless of masks or social distancing or wind conditions. Why? Whatever germ load someone sick expels via breathing/talking/sneezing/coughing is instantaneously diluted to infinitesimal levels because the ventilation on the beach is very good. If someone farts on the beach, nobody can feel the stink. If someone farts in an elevator, people can still feel that fifteen minutes after. But, you and I are simply guessing. My question is: where is the science? Why is it silent on this? Why all we know at this point is still the pulled-out-of-a-hat 6 feet of social distancing and "wash your hands"? Why is the media not publicizing more widely studies like [1] that you are 18.7 times more likely to contract Covid indoors than outdoors? [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v...

elisbce 6y ago

Based on observations, your assumption that people on the beach are: 1) practicing proper and effective social distancing, 2) properly wearing medical masks with at least a water-resistant layer with high enough (e.g. 95%) filtering capability (not just some fashionable piece of cloth like bandana) 3) doing the above strictly for every single minute on the beach 4) proper wind condition to bring the viral load down to non-infectious level just does not happen in practice. People do not follow strict practices and bump into each other all the time. So your conclusion that getting the virus on a beach is astronomically small is likely invalidated.

credit_guy 6y ago
I'm not making these assumptions. I think it's virtually impossible to contract Covid on the beach, regardless of masks or social distancing or wind conditions. Why? Whatever germ load someone sick expels via breathing/talking/sneezing/coughing is instantaneously diluted to infinitesimal levels because the ventilation on the beach is very good. If someone farts on the beach, nobody can feel the stink. If someone farts in an elevator, people can still feel that fifteen minutes after. But, you and I are simply guessing. My question is: where is the science? Why is it silent on this? Why all we know at this point is still the pulled-out-of-a-hat 6 feet of social distancing and "wash your hands"? Why is the media not publicizing more widely studies like [1] that you are 18.7 times more likely to contract Covid indoors than outdoors? [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v...