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Allan Lichtman's has correctly predicted Presidential elections since 1984 [YT]
- antasvara 6y agoObviously very impressive, but I've been wondering how likely it is that someone would get this by chance. If we assume there's a 60% chance of getting it right on average (this could be lower, but a 10% increase in accuracy seems like a reasonable amount considering the amount of polling data available),there's a 1% chance someone could get that record by chance. Given the amount of individuals in politics, is it too far outside the realm of possibility that this is largely chance?