> I have trouble seeing how I would "get better" at predicting stuff solely through this, but perhaps forcing myself to think it through would be sufficient. I

> I have trouble seeing how I would "get better" at predicting stuff solely through this, but perhaps forcing myself to think it through would be sufficient. I think the approach would work well in the "false positive" case, i.e. that you are always fairly certain some kind of activity is worth your time, but it ends up disappointing you every time. On the flipside, if thinking through something makes you come up with a low expected value, you probably won't do it and won't know. But then again this can also be a pointer that you should maybe "dip your toes in" first and not commit too much time to something you don't see as promising.