3 ms·

If you decide against action because of your prediction, how can you evaluate your decision/prediction?

• unionpivo 6y ago
  You can't. I use something similar to fix( work in progress ) my problem of having hard time saying no to people and things. So by having predictions you can cut down on your choices. Just seeing the list with chances you have attributed to them it's sometimes enough to clarify what will be best value for your time.
• bo1024 6y ago
  Great insight, this is a general issue with making decisions based on predictions. It comes up in Hanson's "Futarchy" / decision markets too. For example, if you have a huge bias against recruiters and never take their calls because your predictions are < 3%, but the true probability is 50%, you'll never find out those predictions are wrong. One way to mitigate this is to add random exploration. Whenever you decide not to do something, with probability say 1/20, just do it anyway.