7 ms·

Not an employee but overall I am quite bullish on Airbnb as ironically they will be the definition of a what a post-covid travel company will become. Couple poi

by lasgsf 6y ago

Not an employee but overall I am quite bullish on Airbnb as ironically they will be the definition of a what a post-covid travel company will become. Couple points in their favour: 1. Work from home becomes work from anywhere: The WFH trend is here to stay and will grow. If you have an option why not stay anywhere in world and work vs. close by home? I expect we will see a big % of WFH markets be global travelers. Proving this thesis would be Airbnb can show on S1 the % of guest who book outside their home location and for stays more then 2 weeks (to account that it is not simply vacation time). 2. Stays gravitating to Tier 2 or lower vs. Tier 1: People will not want to fly or be close to other folks so you will see travel go to Tier 2 or lower cities. This helps Airbnb in two ways.. less competition as these cities won't have as much hotels...second allows them to increase their breadth of revenue based across many more cities then being dependant on just Tier 1 which have risk (regulation, disaster, etc.). Show this on S1 by % of travel that is now on Tier 2 and lower markets and how this has grown as a proportion of your overall revenue base. 3. Safety: Simple it's getting close to accepted that the #1 way of covid transmission is via airborne. Based on this you as a traveler should want to minimize as much unnecessary humans interaction as possible thus hotels suck with all the traffic that is there. You may argue that hotels have policy that are more strict on cleaning but this doesn't mean much when the way to catch covid is via airseol. 4. Inventory: With the economy still in shambles they will get more host who will monetize their living assets more and thus provide more inventory. I could go on and on but thats my thesis.

jariel 6y ago
? They are being devastated by COVID which could linger for a while. Their biggest risk is regulatory and taxation. Many AirBnBs are illegal, and what will really grind government to act are the potential lost revenues. I think they will do just fine, it's a matter of valuation.
- an_opabinia 6y ago
  Of the last $5,000 I’ve spent on AirBnB, not a single dollar was spent on a legal host.
  - vadym909 6y ago
    I didn't know this was a thing until my friend said he stayed in a guest room of a small country's embassy in SF that the host probably never had permission to rent out.
    - qppo 6y ago
      You haven't lived until you find out your host lied about the address so it wouldn't tip off their landlord, who forbid it in their lease
      - zebnyc 6y ago
        Had this very experience happen to me a few years back. Took a cab to the advertised address. Door locked. So I call the host and the host gives us a different address. Catch a taxi to the other address and report it to Airbnb along with a request for cab refund (Airbnb just ignored the request). Host just started listing in a different address afterwards.
  - jariel 6y ago
    Uber and AirBnB have revealed that the Western World is far more lawless than we had imagined. Who knew you could just 'start running cabs'. Even city hall says 'no' ... they just keep going. It's really bizarre. Irrespective of whether or now we should allow AirBnB and Uber it's crazy that civic institutions seem to have no control. If I was mayor and we decided 'no' on Uber I would be fining Uber millions and individual drivers a lot and ask regular cabs and cops to be on the lookout. It's mind blowing how much tax revenue is being missed out on, and how much money is flying out of the country.
    - asdff 6y ago
      if you were mayor in a city like LA you wouldn't have the ability to do anything really unless you had the council on your side, some of whom are currently being charged by the FBI in a corruption probe. Chicago is even worse. Most city governments are completely hobbled by design, powerless, and corrupted.
- thesimon 6y ago
  > Their biggest risk is regulatory and taxation. Many AirBnBs are illegal, and what will really grind government to act are the potential lost revenues And if they are legal, they tend to be a bit boring. When I look at some cities, agencies rent out tons of flat commercially. In In Porto I found over 100+ flats managed by one agency, they were dominating the list. airbnb is not so interesting anymore when the flats look all the same worldwide, you never see the actual owner and the person checking you in has no real connection with the apartment and can't help you with issues too much.
Guest19023892 6y ago
> If you have an option why not stay anywhere in world and work vs. close by home? I expect we will see a big % of WFH markets be global travelers. Well, if a business is allowing their employees to work from home due to COVID, they don't want them traveling off abroad and being classified as tax residents of various countries. If people are moving to cheaper cities or locations in their own country, getting a long term Airbnb isn't very practical. Most will use whatever real estate listing website or service that is prevalent in their region.
- dijit 6y ago
  FWIW in most countries you dont become tax resident until you've been there more than 3 months, in some cases 6. source: I work(ed) for an international company and missions were somewhat commonplace, you get paid from your subsidiary unless you're there for longer than 3mo.
  - taurath 6y ago
    Problem is you’ll probably be on a tourist rather than work visa.
    - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
      Working for a foreign company that's paying you in a different country is a grey area. Many countries have business visas that allow "business" but prohibit "work", with the main (but not sole) determinant being whether you're paid locally. Some countries are also starting to offer long-stay remote work visas: https://www.traveller.com.au/countries-such-as-barbados-to-offer-yearlong-working-visa-programs-to-attract-digital-nomads-h1pf4k https://www.traveller.com.au/countries-such-as-barbados-to-o...
- rubber_duck 6y ago
  >Well, if a business is allowing their employees to work from home due to COVID, they don't want them traveling off abroad and being classified as tax residents of various countries. You would need to stay somewhere 6+ months in a year to be classified as a tax resident so I don't see that being relevant to Airbnb. 1-3 month work from different places would be what I would be doing right now if my wife wasn't pregnant, but as someone who did it when the lockdown started (moved from inland to island for 2 weeks) the cut they take on that duration makes it worth searching local advertising sites. The bigger issue is that most rentals suck for work compared to a decent home office set-up
eanzenberg 6y ago
Covid is going away in 6-12 months. I wouldn’t stake a long term business proposal on it.
- taurath 6y ago
  They had a thriving business model before it, and there won’t be fewer WFH people after Covid
  - oh-4-fucks-sake 6y ago
    Right. Not to mention pent-up demand for leisure travel. I invest almost exclusively in funds because owning even one individual stock highly-disproportionally overweights your portfolio into that stock. I might have to make an exception for AirBnb.
  - piva00 6y ago
    Thriving business model while the slow cooker of regulations don't catch up to them. There are reports of some touristic cities starting to cap Airbnb rentals, or just outright outlawing them. It's for good measure, Airbnbs in Barcelona, Lisboa and a number of other European cities have priced out the local population, investors buying 4-10 apartments on the same house to rent out as short-term rentals. Airbnb created a pressure in the housing market that didn't exist before, for cities that already suffered with housing it really really sucks. So it's the same as Uber: get into a regulatory grey area, capture the market and then fight over so regulations don't catch up with you. The whole business model of Airbnb was based on avoiding regulations, landlords have used this to prop up their short-term profits as it's much more profitable to rent out an Airbnb in Barcelona for 7-10 days per season-month than renting it out long-term monthly throughout the year.
    - collyw 6y ago
      Renting and buying property was already a pain in the arse in Barcelona before Airbnb, but they certainly didn't help.
    - unishark 6y ago
xoxoy 6y ago
the number of people who will hop from one airbnb to the next during some unknown WFH period is absurdly small
- hajola 6y ago
  Why do you assume that? Are there any papers/data available on the subject? I have met quite a few digital nomads, who do just that.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - wdb 6y ago
    Are there any sites to help digital nomads with sorting out work visas?
puranjay 6y ago
One reason why I might gravitate towards Airbnb over a bigger hotel is that atleast in my country, larger hotels have central air conditioning, while Airbnbs usually don't. This makes them far safer as far as Covid transmission is concerned
- riffraff 6y ago
  counterpoint: your larger hotel probably has to uphold some sanitary regulation, if only because they could get sued into oblivion if they didn't, while a random airbnb host likely does not.
randomsearch 6y ago
A bit off topic but interested in (3). WHO thinks covid is most of entirely droplet and not aerosol spread. Do you have a link to the contrary please? Not the first time I’ve heard this opinion and I’m interested to see the evidence.

by lasgsf 6y ago

jariel 6y ago

? They are being devastated by COVID which could linger for a while. Their biggest risk is regulatory and taxation. Many AirBnBs are illegal, and what will really grind government to act are the potential lost revenues. I think they will do just fine, it's a matter of valuation.

an_opabinia 6y ago
Of the last $5,000 I’ve spent on AirBnB, not a single dollar was spent on a legal host.
- vadym909 6y ago
  I didn't know this was a thing until my friend said he stayed in a guest room of a small country's embassy in SF that the host probably never had permission to rent out.
  - qppo 6y ago
    You haven't lived until you find out your host lied about the address so it wouldn't tip off their landlord, who forbid it in their lease
    - zebnyc 6y ago
      Had this very experience happen to me a few years back. Took a cab to the advertised address. Door locked. So I call the host and the host gives us a different address. Catch a taxi to the other address and report it to Airbnb along with a request for cab refund (Airbnb just ignored the request). Host just started listing in a different address afterwards.
- jariel 6y ago
  Uber and AirBnB have revealed that the Western World is far more lawless than we had imagined. Who knew you could just 'start running cabs'. Even city hall says 'no' ... they just keep going. It's really bizarre. Irrespective of whether or now we should allow AirBnB and Uber it's crazy that civic institutions seem to have no control. If I was mayor and we decided 'no' on Uber I would be fining Uber millions and individual drivers a lot and ask regular cabs and cops to be on the lookout. It's mind blowing how much tax revenue is being missed out on, and how much money is flying out of the country.
  - asdff 6y ago
    if you were mayor in a city like LA you wouldn't have the ability to do anything really unless you had the council on your side, some of whom are currently being charged by the FBI in a corruption probe. Chicago is even worse. Most city governments are completely hobbled by design, powerless, and corrupted.
thesimon 6y ago
> Their biggest risk is regulatory and taxation. Many AirBnBs are illegal, and what will really grind government to act are the potential lost revenues And if they are legal, they tend to be a bit boring. When I look at some cities, agencies rent out tons of flat commercially. In In Porto I found over 100+ flats managed by one agency, they were dominating the list. airbnb is not so interesting anymore when the flats look all the same worldwide, you never see the actual owner and the person checking you in has no real connection with the apartment and can't help you with issues too much.

Guest19023892 6y ago

> If you have an option why not stay anywhere in world and work vs. close by home? I expect we will see a big % of WFH markets be global travelers. Well, if a business is allowing their employees to work from home due to COVID, they don't want them traveling off abroad and being classified as tax residents of various countries. If people are moving to cheaper cities or locations in their own country, getting a long term Airbnb isn't very practical. Most will use whatever real estate listing website or service that is prevalent in their region.

dijit 6y ago
FWIW in most countries you dont become tax resident until you've been there more than 3 months, in some cases 6. source: I work(ed) for an international company and missions were somewhat commonplace, you get paid from your subsidiary unless you're there for longer than 3mo.
- taurath 6y ago
  Problem is you’ll probably be on a tourist rather than work visa.
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
    Working for a foreign company that's paying you in a different country is a grey area. Many countries have business visas that allow "business" but prohibit "work", with the main (but not sole) determinant being whether you're paid locally. Some countries are also starting to offer long-stay remote work visas: https://www.traveller.com.au/countries-such-as-barbados-to-offer-yearlong-working-visa-programs-to-attract-digital-nomads-h1pf4k https://www.traveller.com.au/countries-such-as-barbados-to-o...
rubber_duck 6y ago
>Well, if a business is allowing their employees to work from home due to COVID, they don't want them traveling off abroad and being classified as tax residents of various countries. You would need to stay somewhere 6+ months in a year to be classified as a tax resident so I don't see that being relevant to Airbnb. 1-3 month work from different places would be what I would be doing right now if my wife wasn't pregnant, but as someone who did it when the lockdown started (moved from inland to island for 2 weeks) the cut they take on that duration makes it worth searching local advertising sites. The bigger issue is that most rentals suck for work compared to a decent home office set-up

eanzenberg 6y ago

Covid is going away in 6-12 months. I wouldn’t stake a long term business proposal on it.

taurath 6y ago
They had a thriving business model before it, and there won’t be fewer WFH people after Covid
- oh-4-fucks-sake 6y ago
  Right. Not to mention pent-up demand for leisure travel. I invest almost exclusively in funds because owning even one individual stock highly-disproportionally overweights your portfolio into that stock. I might have to make an exception for AirBnb.
- piva00 6y ago
  Thriving business model while the slow cooker of regulations don't catch up to them. There are reports of some touristic cities starting to cap Airbnb rentals, or just outright outlawing them. It's for good measure, Airbnbs in Barcelona, Lisboa and a number of other European cities have priced out the local population, investors buying 4-10 apartments on the same house to rent out as short-term rentals. Airbnb created a pressure in the housing market that didn't exist before, for cities that already suffered with housing it really really sucks. So it's the same as Uber: get into a regulatory grey area, capture the market and then fight over so regulations don't catch up with you. The whole business model of Airbnb was based on avoiding regulations, landlords have used this to prop up their short-term profits as it's much more profitable to rent out an Airbnb in Barcelona for 7-10 days per season-month than renting it out long-term monthly throughout the year.
  - collyw 6y ago
    Renting and buying property was already a pain in the arse in Barcelona before Airbnb, but they certainly didn't help.
  - unishark 6y ago

xoxoy 6y ago

the number of people who will hop from one airbnb to the next during some unknown WFH period is absurdly small

hajola 6y ago
Why do you assume that? Are there any papers/data available on the subject? I have met quite a few digital nomads, who do just that.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- wdb 6y ago
  Are there any sites to help digital nomads with sorting out work visas?

puranjay 6y ago

One reason why I might gravitate towards Airbnb over a bigger hotel is that atleast in my country, larger hotels have central air conditioning, while Airbnbs usually don't. This makes them far safer as far as Covid transmission is concerned

riffraff 6y ago
counterpoint: your larger hotel probably has to uphold some sanitary regulation, if only because they could get sued into oblivion if they didn't, while a random airbnb host likely does not.

randomsearch 6y ago

A bit off topic but interested in (3). WHO thinks covid is most of entirely droplet and not aerosol spread. Do you have a link to the contrary please? Not the first time I’ve heard this opinion and I’m interested to see the evidence.