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I love the work Bill Gates is doing, I'm pro vaccine, and there's no way in hell I'm getting the COVID vaccine before sometime late 2021. I want to see long-te

I love the work Bill Gates is doing, I'm pro vaccine, and there's no way in hell I'm getting the COVID vaccine before sometime late 2021. I want to see long-term results before I take my chances with a fast-tracked vaccine. I suspect that there are lots of other folks with the same mindset.

ffpip 6y ago
Vladimir Putin allegedly made his own daughter take the vaccine. I don't know if that is true. Maybe just a lie to make the public believe it is safe.
pintxo 6y ago
It's a very understandable mindset and I tend to sympathize with it. On the other hand, fast-tracked does not necessarily mean less safe. As far as my understanding for clinical trials goes, we can still have the exact same tests with the exact same criteria and quality but still speed up the overall process. Simply by eliminating the default waterfall and accepting higher financial risk. (Also higher medical risk, but only within the trials, not for the end-product). Usually, one would run the various trials strictly in order: trial_stage = 0; while (trial_stage < 4) execute(trial_stage) if (evaluate(trial_stage) == success) trial_stage++ do Under pressure, we can start the next stage while the previous one is not finished yet. This means higher financial risk, as you are investing already into stage II even if you do not know if stage I will in the end be successful. This also implies higher medical risk for stage II but this risk stays within the trials.
- 01100011 6y ago
  My main worry is that there may be longer term effects which are not apparent for a year or more. There doesn't seem to be a way to ensure long term effects are absent besides conducting a long term test. I'll happily get my flu shot this year though, so perhaps I'm being a bit hypocritical.
  - tsomctl 6y ago
    Well, I'm sitting here with long term effects from covid itself (difficulty breathing from smoke from the forest fires.) If I was to live my life over again, I'd take the risk from the vaccine.
    - 01100011 6y ago
      Well sure, but I'd rather just not get covid in the first place. Given that I'll be WFH until at least January, that seems like an attainable goal. Front-line/essential workers have a more complicated calculus to ponder.
aaron695 6y ago
> before sometime late 2021. I want to see long-term results before I take my chances with a fast-tracked vaccine. Theses no way there will be a vaccine pushed out before late 2021. That's an optimistic start Maybe, maybe high risk workers might start larger rollouts mid next year. But even if it's true their vaccine might not even be the one you might be offered. Being high risk workers you'll also know little since you won't be able to sort danger between the vaccine and their work. At your safety level you are asking for late 2022 would be an early option. But then the risk from C19 might lower, so you'll have to reassess then. I doubt most people will get the vaccine.
icelancer 6y ago
I understand this sentiment, but the more people think this way, the longer it takes to safely get to herd immunity, so there is a massive tradeoff happening here.
- thu2111 6y ago
  No, herd immunity is already happening anyway via natural vaccination, i.e. people getting it. There's no actual need for a vaccine. Case numbers are falling in many areas again, even after a round of opening ups. By now the vaccine has clearly shifted in purpose from a medical one to a primarily psychological one. For people who are wedded to lockdowns and can't admit how disastrous they are, a vaccine is a face-saving exit criteria. It comes with the bonus of more top-down control of the population too!

ffpip 6y ago

Vladimir Putin allegedly made his own daughter take the vaccine. I don't know if that is true. Maybe just a lie to make the public believe it is safe.

pintxo 6y ago

It's a very understandable mindset and I tend to sympathize with it. On the other hand, fast-tracked does not necessarily mean less safe. As far as my understanding for clinical trials goes, we can still have the exact same tests with the exact same criteria and quality but still speed up the overall process. Simply by eliminating the default waterfall and accepting higher financial risk. (Also higher medical risk, but only within the trials, not for the end-product). Usually, one would run the various trials strictly in order: trial_stage = 0; while (trial_stage < 4) execute(trial_stage) if (evaluate(trial_stage) == success) trial_stage++ do Under pressure, we can start the next stage while the previous one is not finished yet. This means higher financial risk, as you are investing already into stage II even if you do not know if stage I will in the end be successful. This also implies higher medical risk for stage II but this risk stays within the trials.

01100011 6y ago
My main worry is that there may be longer term effects which are not apparent for a year or more. There doesn't seem to be a way to ensure long term effects are absent besides conducting a long term test. I'll happily get my flu shot this year though, so perhaps I'm being a bit hypocritical.
- tsomctl 6y ago
  Well, I'm sitting here with long term effects from covid itself (difficulty breathing from smoke from the forest fires.) If I was to live my life over again, I'd take the risk from the vaccine.
  - 01100011 6y ago
    Well sure, but I'd rather just not get covid in the first place. Given that I'll be WFH until at least January, that seems like an attainable goal. Front-line/essential workers have a more complicated calculus to ponder.

aaron695 6y ago

> before sometime late 2021. I want to see long-term results before I take my chances with a fast-tracked vaccine. Theses no way there will be a vaccine pushed out before late 2021. That's an optimistic start Maybe, maybe high risk workers might start larger rollouts mid next year. But even if it's true their vaccine might not even be the one you might be offered. Being high risk workers you'll also know little since you won't be able to sort danger between the vaccine and their work. At your safety level you are asking for late 2022 would be an early option. But then the risk from C19 might lower, so you'll have to reassess then. I doubt most people will get the vaccine.

icelancer 6y ago

I understand this sentiment, but the more people think this way, the longer it takes to safely get to herd immunity, so there is a massive tradeoff happening here.

thu2111 6y ago
No, herd immunity is already happening anyway via natural vaccination, i.e. people getting it. There's no actual need for a vaccine. Case numbers are falling in many areas again, even after a round of opening ups. By now the vaccine has clearly shifted in purpose from a medical one to a primarily psychological one. For people who are wedded to lockdowns and can't admit how disastrous they are, a vaccine is a face-saving exit criteria. It comes with the bonus of more top-down control of the population too!