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> employee equity that are set to start expiring in November 2020 and in mid-2021; those shares will become worthless if the company is not trading publicly by

> employee equity that are set to start expiring in November 2020 and in mid-2021; those shares will become worthless if the company is not trading publicly by then I'd say you nailed it on the head. Because aside from this, it's pretty terrible timing for an industry that's been killed by the virus and won't rebound until it's long over.

geronb 6y ago
Not really. Airbnb has fully recovered, same as VRBO (which is growing about 60% YoY) and having proven that the business has been resilient even during the pandemic can be a good story for the IPO. https://www.financial-world.org/news/news/business/6074/california-vacation-rental-airbnb-bookings-pick-up-cross-one-million-on-a-single-day/ https://www.financial-world.org/news/news/business/6074/cali...
- canada_dry 6y ago
  > Airbnb has fully recovered That just makes no sense given record unemployment and virus still very much prevalent! Travel and tourism are still significantly below average across the globe. Re: VRBO... this quote "One of Airbnb's biggest competitors is Vrbo, owned by Expedia Group. The company doesn't break out Vrbo's individual results, but noted it returned to bookings growth in June." I believe is plainly misleading. I'd suggest that the "growth in June" is simply compared to the 80-90% decline from the spring's total lockdown, and likely only a 10-20% increase from that bottom. The Airbnb report celebrating 1M bookings worldwide is still significantly below the norm (i.e. probably around 10% - tho I can't find clear stats) especially for the summer - so it hasn't "fully recovered" by a long shot.
  - geronb 6y ago
    The recovery is very surprising and counterintuitive so you are right to be skeptical. Here's some additional datapoints: - Similarweb traffic: VRBO traffic is above February traffic levels https://www.similarweb.com/website/vrbo.com/ https://www.similarweb.com/website/vrbo.com/ - Airbnb traffic shows a V shaped recovery https://www.similarweb.com/website/airbnb.com/#overview https://www.similarweb.com/website/airbnb.com/#overview - VRBO drives Expedia group recovery https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2020/07/07/expedia-group-begins-recovery-vrbo.html https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2020/07/07/expedia-g... - Airbnb shows unexpected growth https://fortune.com/2020/06/30/airbnbceo-brian-chesky-bookings-rentals-recovery-2020-ipo-coronavirus-pandemic/ https://fortune.com/2020/06/30/airbnbceo-brian-chesky-bookin... - May article showing early signs of V-shaped recovery https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airbnb-booking-data-points-to-v-shaped-recovery-in-the-us-301056322.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airbnb-booking-data... - "Airbnb saw more nights booked for U.S. listings between May 17 and June 3 than the same period in 2019, and a similar boost in domestic travel globally." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/airbnb-revenue-tanks-67-in-second-quarter-ipo-planned-for-2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/airbnb-re...

geronb 6y ago

Not really. Airbnb has fully recovered, same as VRBO (which is growing about 60% YoY) and having proven that the business has been resilient even during the pandemic can be a good story for the IPO. https://www.financial-world.org/news/news/business/6074/california-vacation-rental-airbnb-bookings-pick-up-cross-one-million-on-a-single-day/ https://www.financial-world.org/news/news/business/6074/cali...

canada_dry 6y ago
> Airbnb has fully recovered That just makes no sense given record unemployment and virus still very much prevalent! Travel and tourism are still significantly below average across the globe. Re: VRBO... this quote "One of Airbnb's biggest competitors is Vrbo, owned by Expedia Group. The company doesn't break out Vrbo's individual results, but noted it returned to bookings growth in June." I believe is plainly misleading. I'd suggest that the "growth in June" is simply compared to the 80-90% decline from the spring's total lockdown, and likely only a 10-20% increase from that bottom. The Airbnb report celebrating 1M bookings worldwide is still significantly below the norm (i.e. probably around 10% - tho I can't find clear stats) especially for the summer - so it hasn't "fully recovered" by a long shot.
- geronb 6y ago
  The recovery is very surprising and counterintuitive so you are right to be skeptical. Here's some additional datapoints: - Similarweb traffic: VRBO traffic is above February traffic levels https://www.similarweb.com/website/vrbo.com/ https://www.similarweb.com/website/vrbo.com/ - Airbnb traffic shows a V shaped recovery https://www.similarweb.com/website/airbnb.com/#overview https://www.similarweb.com/website/airbnb.com/#overview - VRBO drives Expedia group recovery https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2020/07/07/expedia-group-begins-recovery-vrbo.html https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2020/07/07/expedia-g... - Airbnb shows unexpected growth https://fortune.com/2020/06/30/airbnbceo-brian-chesky-bookings-rentals-recovery-2020-ipo-coronavirus-pandemic/ https://fortune.com/2020/06/30/airbnbceo-brian-chesky-bookin... - May article showing early signs of V-shaped recovery https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airbnb-booking-data-points-to-v-shaped-recovery-in-the-us-301056322.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airbnb-booking-data... - "Airbnb saw more nights booked for U.S. listings between May 17 and June 3 than the same period in 2019, and a similar boost in domestic travel globally." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/airbnb-revenue-tanks-67-in-second-quarter-ipo-planned-for-2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/airbnb-re...