5 ms·

> go through another bubble I don't know. I remember a few years ago when people on reddit would get excited when some cafe in Bratislava or wherever started a

by f00zz 6y ago

> go through another bubble I don't know. I remember a few years ago when people on reddit would get excited when some cafe in Bratislava or wherever started accepting bitcoin, or when Steam started accepting bitcoin. Now cryptocurrencies seem... boring. I see lots of people talking about "store of value", but actual use of bitcoin for what it was intended seems to be decreasing. And now people who want to gamble can just buy NKLA or SPCE or options on zero-fee brokers, which weren't a thing when bitcoin hit all-time high. This is just my impression as an outsider, of course.

drcode 6y ago
The counterargument to this is that IF people are willing to pay for something, they must care about it. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the amount of money people are willing to pay in fees to propagate on the network are extremely high at the moment... so in theory at least, somebody thinks these networks are "worth" using, or they wouldn't spend this money.
- cortesoft 6y ago
  That isn’t necessarily true... people also buy things if they think OTHER people care about it.... they think someone else will buy it from them later for a higher price. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
- gruez 6y ago
  >For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the amount of money people are willing to pay in fees to propagate on the network are extremely high at the moment Just to add here, the transaction fees you have to pay are highly variable, see chart fee chart for the last 30 days[1]. As of this posting the market clearing rate for a typical transaction is about 0.000325 BTC[2], or around $3.73. However, a few hours ago it was as low as 0.000005 BTC for a typical transaction, or around ($0.058). [1] https://i.imgur.com/FYpGpES.png https://i.imgur.com/FYpGpES.png [2] a random google search says a typical bitcoin transaction 250 bytes. this is a different unit than the one in the linked chart, which uses satoshis (0.00000001 BTC) per byte.
  - cdiddy2 6y ago
    Ethereum is the one that is generating more fees right now. 3.6M just in fees yesterday https://coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets=btc,eth_left=FeeTotUSD_zoom=1565746272000,1597282272000 https://coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets=btc,eth_left=FeeTotUSD...
bhaak 6y ago
Don't look at Bitcoin. That hasn't changed much and not much interesting stuff (besides some drama) goes on there. Look at the Ethereum space. That's where most of the action is these days. DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is the current hype. The ETH2 phase 0 is projected to go live later this year (this time for real :-). 60% of Tether is an ERC20 token now. etc. Oh, and if you are interested in drama and have missed it, look up the Quadriga story. That story is so unbelievable whacky, no screen writer would have been able to come up with it.
- maps7 6y ago
  What is ETH2 and why should I care about it?
  - nostrademons 6y ago
    Ethereum + proof of stake + sharding. Right now every node on the Ethereum network validates every transaction using a similar proof of work system as Bitcoin. This creates a transaction bottleneck; I believe Bitcoin can do something like 7 TPS, Ethereum about 11, which is woefully inadequate for a global financial system (for comparison, I believe Visa does something like 20,000). Proof-of-stake replaces this massive electricity waste with game theory. Every validator must put up a deposit (in ETH) to participate. If it cheats, it loses that deposit. The damage it can do to the network is limited to less than the deposit. Therefore, it's never profitable to cheat - and so they won't, or if they do, they will go bankrupt, remove themselves from the network, and self-limit the problem. And transaction validation can now be split among thousands of nodes (instead of having those thousands of nodes all validate the same PoW), which means the network can scale to tens or hundreds of thousands of transactions per second.
    - maps7 6y ago
      Sounds like a better approach. Do you think Bitcoin (BTC) will go down this path too?
      - nostrademons 6y ago
this_user 6y ago
All of the previous Bitcoin bubbles were driven by by new, larger group of people discovering it, and driving prices higher. Hence, any new bubble would require such a new group of buyers to appear. The question is whether that group even exists. Because in 2017 Bitcoin, arguably, went as mainstream as it could go with full-on regular MSM coverage, and most people seem to have heard about it by now. So, who is there to buy, and drive prices even higher as long as its utility stays the same?
- nostrademons 6y ago
  Do you use Bitcoin? No? Then you're part of the group of new buyers. Don't think you ever would? Opinions can change rapidly when you're struggling to buy food.The article's thesis isn't really that the utility of Bitcoin will increase, it's that the utility of the dollar (its primary competition) will decrease. If your dollars will be worth half tomorrow, it's a no-brainer to get rid of them ASAP and put your money in a currency that isn't being printed rapidly.
  - verdverm 6y ago
    Were you a Bitcoin user? Yes, then you won't be a buyer this time around. I will not be putting money in, but I will happily make the bags of others lighter. Of another hype bubble materializes, I will be extracting more of the free money Bitcoin Network printed. In the states, using crypto is a taxable event. Until that is changed, they can only be stores of value, not currency, as I have no interest in recording every transaction with the IRS. I don't see a differentiation within cryptos coming from USG, so the crypto ecosystem can only be one or the other?
    - nostrademons 6y ago
      I think a store of value is exactly what MicroStrategy (and other large institutional buyers of crypto) are looking for right now. If it gets to the point where people will be calling on their Bitcoin reserves, the IRS will no longer be a going concern, at least one that anyone will be paying attention to. It's insurance against the collapse of governments, and so any government regulation other than ones affecting its storage & ownership aren't relevant.

by f00zz 6y ago

drcode 6y ago

The counterargument to this is that IF people are willing to pay for something, they must care about it. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the amount of money people are willing to pay in fees to propagate on the network are extremely high at the moment... so in theory at least, somebody thinks these networks are "worth" using, or they wouldn't spend this money.

cortesoft 6y ago
That isn’t necessarily true... people also buy things if they think OTHER people care about it.... they think someone else will buy it from them later for a higher price. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
gruez 6y ago
>For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the amount of money people are willing to pay in fees to propagate on the network are extremely high at the moment Just to add here, the transaction fees you have to pay are highly variable, see chart fee chart for the last 30 days[1]. As of this posting the market clearing rate for a typical transaction is about 0.000325 BTC[2], or around $3.73. However, a few hours ago it was as low as 0.000005 BTC for a typical transaction, or around ($0.058). [1] https://i.imgur.com/FYpGpES.png https://i.imgur.com/FYpGpES.png [2] a random google search says a typical bitcoin transaction 250 bytes. this is a different unit than the one in the linked chart, which uses satoshis (0.00000001 BTC) per byte.
- cdiddy2 6y ago
  Ethereum is the one that is generating more fees right now. 3.6M just in fees yesterday https://coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets=btc,eth_left=FeeTotUSD_zoom=1565746272000,1597282272000 https://coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets=btc,eth_left=FeeTotUSD...

bhaak 6y ago

Don't look at Bitcoin. That hasn't changed much and not much interesting stuff (besides some drama) goes on there. Look at the Ethereum space. That's where most of the action is these days. DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is the current hype. The ETH2 phase 0 is projected to go live later this year (this time for real :-). 60% of Tether is an ERC20 token now. etc. Oh, and if you are interested in drama and have missed it, look up the Quadriga story. That story is so unbelievable whacky, no screen writer would have been able to come up with it.

maps7 6y ago
What is ETH2 and why should I care about it?
- nostrademons 6y ago
  Ethereum + proof of stake + sharding. Right now every node on the Ethereum network validates every transaction using a similar proof of work system as Bitcoin. This creates a transaction bottleneck; I believe Bitcoin can do something like 7 TPS, Ethereum about 11, which is woefully inadequate for a global financial system (for comparison, I believe Visa does something like 20,000). Proof-of-stake replaces this massive electricity waste with game theory. Every validator must put up a deposit (in ETH) to participate. If it cheats, it loses that deposit. The damage it can do to the network is limited to less than the deposit. Therefore, it's never profitable to cheat - and so they won't, or if they do, they will go bankrupt, remove themselves from the network, and self-limit the problem. And transaction validation can now be split among thousands of nodes (instead of having those thousands of nodes all validate the same PoW), which means the network can scale to tens or hundreds of thousands of transactions per second.
  - maps7 6y ago
    Sounds like a better approach. Do you think Bitcoin (BTC) will go down this path too?
    - nostrademons 6y ago

this_user 6y ago

All of the previous Bitcoin bubbles were driven by by new, larger group of people discovering it, and driving prices higher. Hence, any new bubble would require such a new group of buyers to appear. The question is whether that group even exists. Because in 2017 Bitcoin, arguably, went as mainstream as it could go with full-on regular MSM coverage, and most people seem to have heard about it by now. So, who is there to buy, and drive prices even higher as long as its utility stays the same?

nostrademons 6y ago
Do you use Bitcoin? No? Then you're part of the group of new buyers. Don't think you ever would? Opinions can change rapidly when you're struggling to buy food.The article's thesis isn't really that the utility of Bitcoin will increase, it's that the utility of the dollar (its primary competition) will decrease. If your dollars will be worth half tomorrow, it's a no-brainer to get rid of them ASAP and put your money in a currency that isn't being printed rapidly.
- verdverm 6y ago
  Were you a Bitcoin user? Yes, then you won't be a buyer this time around. I will not be putting money in, but I will happily make the bags of others lighter. Of another hype bubble materializes, I will be extracting more of the free money Bitcoin Network printed. In the states, using crypto is a taxable event. Until that is changed, they can only be stores of value, not currency, as I have no interest in recording every transaction with the IRS. I don't see a differentiation within cryptos coming from USG, so the crypto ecosystem can only be one or the other?
  - nostrademons 6y ago
    I think a store of value is exactly what MicroStrategy (and other large institutional buyers of crypto) are looking for right now. If it gets to the point where people will be calling on their Bitcoin reserves, the IRS will no longer be a going concern, at least one that anyone will be paying attention to. It's insurance against the collapse of governments, and so any government regulation other than ones affecting its storage & ownership aren't relevant.