3 ms·

> Sweden didn't shut down and COVID is done for them now, too. Whoa, I don't think it's safe to say that it's done anywhere. Just look at Melbourne, for an ex

by danans 6y ago

> Sweden didn't shut down and COVID is done for them now, too. Whoa, I don't think it's safe to say that it's done anywhere. Just look at Melbourne, for an example of an outbreak in a country that supposedly had COVID19 under control. Otherwise though, yes, the half measures in the US - and the limited compliance with even those half measures in many states/regions, has set up the US for a worst of all worlds scenario.

arcticbull 6y ago
> Whoa, I don't think it's safe to say that it's done anywhere. Just look at Melbourne, for an example of an outbreak in a country that supposedly had COVID19 under control. In Melbourne, they shut down in an attempt to stamp out COVID, keeping people from catching it, leaving a large population still prone to infection. In Sweden, they did not. Their goal was not to stop people from catching COVID in Sweden, it was to let it happen at a rate they could manage, and treat people who caught it to the best of their abilities. That's why they aren't at risk of a second wave, but countries that shut down are at risk of one until a vaccine can be deployed to a herd-immunity level of the population. Sweden is there already. Sweden is likely the only place on Earth it is safe to say it's done.
- danans 6y ago
  > herd-immunity level of the population. Sweden is there already. The claim that Sweden has reached herd immunity is far too strong to be taken at face value without any supporting evidence ... evidence that simply doesn't exist at this time. However, their daily death rate is much higher then their neighbors: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/510922-the-problem-with-holding-up-sweden-as-an-example https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c... The jury is far from being out on Sweden's approach, and unless they lock down their borders in perpetuity (unlikely for a country so dependent on international trade and commerce), they will still have incoming cases from elsewhere in the world.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    Their death rate is now zero, and daily confirmed cases is zero. [0] It's been ~1 per day since July 25th. At this point in time their death rates are the same as their neighbors. Sweden doesn't have to lock down their borders because they didn't lock down their interior. It's all the other countries that need to lock down their borders. If it's not spreading inside the country, that's because it can't, due to herd immunity. Bars and restaurants are open, people are going to work. Life is approximately normal there now. It has been approximately normal there the whole time. A few key points from your article: > "There’s a lot to indicate that SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that needs to be controlled and not passively waited out." And yet. > "It’s still unknown whether they have short term immunity for about a year like with other coronaviruses, or any immunity at all." Obviously people develop an immunity, their immune systems are responsible for clearing the virus out. If the immune system wasn't able to clear the virus out, they'd be dead. It's also fair to say that the more serious coronaviridae like SARS convey antibody-based immunity for >3 years [1] and T-cell immunity for 17 years and counting [2] so it's not exactly a shot in the dark. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?countr... [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
    - danans 6y ago
      Since we're a wildly speculating about herd immunity (without concrete evidence like widespread antibodies testing and a clear proven link between antibodies and long-term immunity), in all likelihood, Sweden can afford to be lax because all of its neighbors are not being lax. If Germany decided to adopt Sweden's or the US's lax approach, the virus would have ravaged Germany like it is the US, and would have rapidly spread into small neighboring countries like Sweden. This isn't just the case for Sweden, It applies to all the small Nordic countries that are seeing good outcomes. The policies they enact are ultimately a rounding error compared to the impact of policies enacted in large neighboring countries like Germany and France. This is basically what happened in the US, where states like Texas and Florida appeared to be doing well early on, but only because lockdowns in New York and other areas with early outbreaks temporarily protected them. Once everything reopened, those states were inundated with the pandemic. Canada is only doing better perhaps because it still has entry restrictions on visitors from the US. If they open up their borders to US citizens before the pandemic is brought under control in the US, their efforts will be for naught.

by danans 6y ago

arcticbull 6y ago

> Whoa, I don't think it's safe to say that it's done anywhere. Just look at Melbourne, for an example of an outbreak in a country that supposedly had COVID19 under control. In Melbourne, they shut down in an attempt to stamp out COVID, keeping people from catching it, leaving a large population still prone to infection. In Sweden, they did not. Their goal was not to stop people from catching COVID in Sweden, it was to let it happen at a rate they could manage, and treat people who caught it to the best of their abilities. That's why they aren't at risk of a second wave, but countries that shut down are at risk of one until a vaccine can be deployed to a herd-immunity level of the population. Sweden is there already. Sweden is likely the only place on Earth it is safe to say it's done.

danans 6y ago
> herd-immunity level of the population. Sweden is there already. The claim that Sweden has reached herd immunity is far too strong to be taken at face value without any supporting evidence ... evidence that simply doesn't exist at this time. However, their daily death rate is much higher then their neighbors: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/510922-the-problem-with-holding-up-sweden-as-an-example https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c... The jury is far from being out on Sweden's approach, and unless they lock down their borders in perpetuity (unlikely for a country so dependent on international trade and commerce), they will still have incoming cases from elsewhere in the world.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Their death rate is now zero, and daily confirmed cases is zero. [0] It's been ~1 per day since July 25th. At this point in time their death rates are the same as their neighbors. Sweden doesn't have to lock down their borders because they didn't lock down their interior. It's all the other countries that need to lock down their borders. If it's not spreading inside the country, that's because it can't, due to herd immunity. Bars and restaurants are open, people are going to work. Life is approximately normal there now. It has been approximately normal there the whole time. A few key points from your article: > "There’s a lot to indicate that SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that needs to be controlled and not passively waited out." And yet. > "It’s still unknown whether they have short term immunity for about a year like with other coronaviruses, or any immunity at all." Obviously people develop an immunity, their immune systems are responsible for clearing the virus out. If the immune system wasn't able to clear the virus out, they'd be dead. It's also fair to say that the more serious coronaviridae like SARS convey antibody-based immunity for >3 years [1] and T-cell immunity for 17 years and counting [2] so it's not exactly a shot in the dark. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?countr... [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
  - danans 6y ago
    Since we're a wildly speculating about herd immunity (without concrete evidence like widespread antibodies testing and a clear proven link between antibodies and long-term immunity), in all likelihood, Sweden can afford to be lax because all of its neighbors are not being lax. If Germany decided to adopt Sweden's or the US's lax approach, the virus would have ravaged Germany like it is the US, and would have rapidly spread into small neighboring countries like Sweden. This isn't just the case for Sweden, It applies to all the small Nordic countries that are seeing good outcomes. The policies they enact are ultimately a rounding error compared to the impact of policies enacted in large neighboring countries like Germany and France. This is basically what happened in the US, where states like Texas and Florida appeared to be doing well early on, but only because lockdowns in New York and other areas with early outbreaks temporarily protected them. Once everything reopened, those states were inundated with the pandemic. Canada is only doing better perhaps because it still has entry restrictions on visitors from the US. If they open up their borders to US citizens before the pandemic is brought under control in the US, their efforts will be for naught.