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In terms of climate change, natural gas is comparable to using coal. The CO2 emissions from a natural gas plant are much lower than a coal plant, but it isn't c

by opo 6y ago

In terms of climate change, natural gas is comparable to using coal. The CO2 emissions from a natural gas plant are much lower than a coal plant, but it isn't clear that if you account for methane releases during production/transporting/storage that it is better for climate change than coal. >...Back in August, a NOAA-led study measured a stunning 6% to 12% methane leakage over one of the country’s largest gas fields — which would gut the climate benefits of switching from coal to gas. We’ve known for a long time that methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2), which is released when any hydrocarbon, like natural gas, is burned. But the IPCC’s latest report, released Monday (big PDF here), reports that methane is 34 times stronger a heat-trapping gas than CO2 over a 100-year time scale, so its global-warming potential (GWP) is 34. That is a nearly 40% increase from the IPCC’s previous estimate of 25. ...The IPCC reports that, over a 20-year time frame, methane has a global warming potential of 86 compared to CO2, up from its previous estimate of 72. Given that we are approaching real, irreversible tipping points in the climate system, climate studies should, at the very least, include analyses that use this 20-year time horizon. Finally, it bears repeating that natural gas from even the best fracked wells is still a climate-destroying fossil fuel. If we are to avoid catastrophic warming, our natural gas consumption has to peak sometime in the next 10 to 15 years, according to studies by both the Center for American Progress and the Union of Concerned Scientists. https://thinkprogress.org/more-bad-news-for-fracking-ipcc-warns-methane-traps-much-more-heat-than-we-thought-9c2badf392df/ https://thinkprogress.org/more-bad-news-for-fracking-ipcc-wa... As we use more and more natural gas, we can expect more and more methane disasters like the leak from Aliso Canyon in CA which was the largest methane leak in US history. This released over 100,000 tons of methane into the atmosphere and required 11,000 residents to be evacuated. http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35659947 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35659947 >...Natural gas is also in vastly shorter supply than coal, naturally forcing a transition away from it fairly soon. Not really. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates in the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 that as of January 1, 2018, there were about 2,828.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable resources (TRR) of dry natural gas in the United States. Assuming the same annual rate of U.S. dry natural gas production in 2018 of about 30.6 Tcf, the United States has enough dry natural gas to last about 92 years. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=58&t=8 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=58&t=8 And if extracting natural gas becomes too expensive, countries can just make synthetic natural gas from coal like China does.

Retric 6y ago
Methane’s global warming impact is front loaded, it breaks down in the atmosphere so in a steady state future leaks only maintain but don’t increase the amount of methane in the atmosphere. In other words there are significant benefits from eventually moving to something else, but little long term advantage due to methane from doing so sooner. “technically recoverable resources“ is what’s possible to extract at any price making it a very poor measurement of economically viable reserves. Considering natural gas is already more than twice as expensive as solar power it’s primary benefit is flexibility and the limited amount of solar manufacturing currently available. Further the absolute worst case from known reserves of 92 years worth of natural gas is the equivalent of less than 28 years worth of coal production at those rates. Which means any coal offset with natural gas is at worst equivalent to zero coal in 2048 and very likely significantly better than that. PS: 1998 methane levels are 5% lower than current levels because we have significantly increased output over the last 20 years. But looking at the graph it’s nothing like a linear increase.
- opo 6y ago
  >Methane’s global warming impact is front loaded, Methane is 34 times stronger a heat-trapping gas than CO2 over a 100-year time scale. This is the timeframe we need to worry about right now to avoid the worst affects of climate change. >...“technically recoverable resources“ is what’s possible to extract at any price making it a very poor measurement of economically viable reserves. Yes, but technology improves and all of sudden they are viable. People knew of those big oil deposits in North Dakota for decades and then with fracking it became feasible to extract it. As I pointed out, even today China is going forward with making synthetic natural gas from coal (which is even worse for climate change than just burning methane.) >...Considering natural gas is already more than twice as expensive as solar power it’s primary benefit is flexibility and the limited amount of solar manufacturing currently available. The major weakness of solar is that having 100% capacity at noon in July on a sunny day in Arizona, doesn't help at midnight when you want to run medical equipment. It is possible grid storage will become feasible in the future to cover the daily and seasonal variations of capacity for wind/solar, but if we end up having the grid rely on natural gas will make it very difficult to avoid the worst problems associated with climate change.

by opo 6y ago

Retric 6y ago

Methane’s global warming impact is front loaded, it breaks down in the atmosphere so in a steady state future leaks only maintain but don’t increase the amount of methane in the atmosphere. In other words there are significant benefits from eventually moving to something else, but little long term advantage due to methane from doing so sooner. “technically recoverable resources“ is what’s possible to extract at any price making it a very poor measurement of economically viable reserves. Considering natural gas is already more than twice as expensive as solar power it’s primary benefit is flexibility and the limited amount of solar manufacturing currently available. Further the absolute worst case from known reserves of 92 years worth of natural gas is the equivalent of less than 28 years worth of coal production at those rates. Which means any coal offset with natural gas is at worst equivalent to zero coal in 2048 and very likely significantly better than that. PS: 1998 methane levels are 5% lower than current levels because we have significantly increased output over the last 20 years. But looking at the graph it’s nothing like a linear increase.

opo 6y ago
>Methane’s global warming impact is front loaded, Methane is 34 times stronger a heat-trapping gas than CO2 over a 100-year time scale. This is the timeframe we need to worry about right now to avoid the worst affects of climate change. >...“technically recoverable resources“ is what’s possible to extract at any price making it a very poor measurement of economically viable reserves. Yes, but technology improves and all of sudden they are viable. People knew of those big oil deposits in North Dakota for decades and then with fracking it became feasible to extract it. As I pointed out, even today China is going forward with making synthetic natural gas from coal (which is even worse for climate change than just burning methane.) >...Considering natural gas is already more than twice as expensive as solar power it’s primary benefit is flexibility and the limited amount of solar manufacturing currently available. The major weakness of solar is that having 100% capacity at noon in July on a sunny day in Arizona, doesn't help at midnight when you want to run medical equipment. It is possible grid storage will become feasible in the future to cover the daily and seasonal variations of capacity for wind/solar, but if we end up having the grid rely on natural gas will make it very difficult to avoid the worst problems associated with climate change.